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HG1! trade ideas

All time high break!In my "Copper could go to $8, $20 even" idea published on March 13th I explained I was looking to buy copper, and expected it to go up over more than a year. I wanted to see the price consolidate over a longer time than what it did and ideally closer to all time high. It is still possible that it will, just like gold did, after going up significantly above ATH, just like gold did. I missed out on buying during consolidation but I FOMO'ed on the ATH breakout, I'm a bit mad because I went in with only half size; I have no problem taking bad trades with full size but when I FOMO I take smaller bets even though I keep winning, the margin restrictions do not help also to be fair, once again thank you useless regulators. In the long term as I said in previous ideas, Copper $8 easy, even $20. If Yellen & the FED follow the example of Rudolf Havenstein copper $20,000,000 why not 😀 How does the CME limit up work when there is hyperinflation? Or strong inflation and strong price appreciation? NOW is the time to ask this question, it's like with negative Oil prices, you had to think about it BEFORE the events, not AFTER. Prices could get frozen. We are far from this happening, it will not happen overnight and implied volatility does not simple go from 0 to 100 overnight. For now we keep an eye on volatility and when it starts getting extreme we look for answers. And we never go all in so even if prices get frozen all our capital won't be. With Oil I was relieved to see the CME made an announcement that prices could go negative, days before it did. I checked before buying (I was trying to take advantage of the contango). What happens when prices keep going up is not clear, but if and when volatility starts increasing dramatically the CME and maybe our brokers will let us know. Remember Oil volatility increased very progressively. The second question is in the short term, meaning the next couple of weeks or even months, where could the price be heading? Will it just continue higher and higher or will it do a spike as it's doing now, then have a big correction around ATH? To help answer this question we can look at other commodities, first gold. But copper is not gold, it is an industrial metal, used for real, no one is accumulating copper as a store of value. So next let's take a look at lumber which everyone knows has been going and going and going. Lumber: retest, but only after going ridiculously high. I copper did this... I'd be happy. We can look at a couple more examples, the price action is repetitive. And what best to compare to copper than copper itself? The price before the 2005-2008 copper bull run was choppy, and it stayed choppy for a while after going past all time high. It's logical and obvious. Participants do not magically go from uncertain to mega bullish overnight, and the public (nobs) do not simply all "hear about copper" AND buy overnight. Everyone I think knows about Bitcoin, most of the public heard about it progressively over september-december 2017, mostly the last 2 months. Some day someone might have heard from a colleague "hey have you heard about this Bitcoin thing?", it's progressive not instantaneous. And then the public, "mainstreet", joined Bitcoin from late 2017 to early 2019, so over a 1 and a half year period. The price of copper was vertical before passing all time high. So I expect it to continue on the same trajectory. Simple. Just like Lumber last year. It's funny to compare copper and lumber, when Lumber past ATH in 2020 it did a doji on the daily chart, with the body in the middle, and copper just had the exact same candle on ATH last week on the 4 hour chart. Lumber is a MACHINE which has been offering the rich a crazy risk to reward. Most of us are poor plebes that cannot afford to buy a full lot of lumber (worth $100K-$200K you have to multiply the price by 110) with a risk of $10,000 and potentially much more on a gap. Plus most retail brokers do not even offer lumber. But we can buy copper mini or even micro lots. Which brings us to the third question. Where to buy? We already started to answer this question and looked at some examples. In reality I see only 2 ways to buy (be it spot or a call): - On a retest of ATH - FOMO, for example on a 1 hour red candle There is nothing in between for me, if the price reverses then I would expect it to go all the way down to ATH (implied volatility, support and all). Considering how the price has been behaving I'd expect something similar to lumber daily chart but on the 4 hour chart. I would buy any inside bar for example. Possibly even any 1 hour red candle. And as it goes up keep buying more.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by MrRenev
1
Copper could go to $8, $20 evenPushing the price up: - High demand for EVS, renewable energy production, the Green New Deal, means copper production is below demand and expected to be in shortage for years - Stimulus spending and inflation of industrial goods - Producers cannot increase supply fast enough, examples: Freeport CEO "It will take 7-8 years to get new production to the market", "Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolian super mine) is set to bring a further 480,000 tonnes of copper into the market from 2028" www.mining.com www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk Stopping (or slowing) the price from going up: - Traders taking profit (short term) - An end to all the renewable projects - A total collapse of civilization? This is what happened with the previous price explosion in the 2000s As the price consolidates around ATH we might want to bet on the price going up up up in usd terms I'd just go for the DEC 2022 contract, or a DEC 2022 call: There is a discount on that contract too (backwardation). At a price of $4 1 contract = $100,000. A 10% stop is a risk of $10,000. So maybe we'll just take short term trades on the way up. Unless we all become millionaires in a few months with Cryptos? There is an e-mini for copper but no one trades that, I don't even know if I have access to this and where/what broker? Plus I don't see DEC 22 :( www.cmegroup.com
COMEX:HG1!Long
by MrRenev
1
Remember Copper? Time to buy (not advice)Hello. I talked about Copper back in March, and then in May, ideas linked below. It has been 6 months, and after patiently waiting well here we are. From a "George Soros investment tips" article: "Short term investing, it must be stressed, is not like day trading. Day trading is really kind of a myth. You can’t just sit at home, follow stock trends and expect to turn a profit from one day to the next. Short term means waiting for months to expect any return on your investment." Well I did wait 6 months. George Soros waits to buy for months, then he buys, waits for weeks, and then his gains happen over a few days. This is more what I'd expect. Seems like it always works this way. Don't have much to add about the price going up, now is just the time to buy for me, not much has changed. Wyckoff spring? Upthrust? Something something. Doesn't matter. In the short term there was some FUD about China demand which helped create the down movement (typical). In the medium term USD goes down, commodities go up, maybe energy makes it worse, green transition demands lots of material... There is a lot we can read about copper, well a bit, not a lot compared to Oil or Bitcoin but still, enough. They talk much about the risk, it could not go up and so on. Great, noob retail gamblers, hedge fund managers, industrials and other hedgers are being careful, wait and see. Best to wait and see, because of the risk. But me? I want the risk, someone has to take it. Yes please give me the risk that's my job. Not for hedgers or gamblers. I'm as close as it gets to being stopped or winning without a greedy entry that would cause me to always miss out. Top inflexion point. Here if it goes to ~$5 I think I'll be making 10 times what I'd lose if stopped. I'm here to enter at the maximum risk, maximum "we don't know let's wait and see", I'm here to take hits. Once there is certainty we'll probably be close to the top, and there might be a big violent correction with the gamblers snatching profits, also of course the miners want to sell, then the hedge funds that want certainty will be looking to get in on that correction. Not sure what I will do, probably weak hands once I'm at a high multiple of my risk. Probably just take another hit though.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by MrRenev
1
Elliott Wave View: Copper (HG) Looks to Extend HigherShort Term view in Copper suggests the rally from September 21 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from September 21 low, wave ((i)) ended at 4.3175 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4.0545. The metal then extends higher in wave ((iii)) as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 4.3955 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 4.3050. The metal extends higher in wave (iii) towards 4.781, wave (iv) ended at 4.7025, and wave (v) of ((iii)) ended at 4.823. Pullback in wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 4.537 as a double three structure. However, the metal still needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 4.823 to rule out a double correction. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (w) ended at 4.5935, wave (x) ended at 4.7575, and wave (y) ended at 4.5370. This completed wave ((iv)) in higher degree. Up from there, the metal should end wave (i) of ((v)) soon with 1 more push higher. It should then pullback in wave (ii) before the rally resumes. Near term, while pullback stays above 4.537, and more importantly above 4.309, expect the metal to extend higher within wave ((v)).
COMEX:HG1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Short CopperThe Global Economy is slowing down. China is slowing, DXY is spiking, and the case for base metals is starting to wane. Looking at things like NG1! and Copper, things are starting to look like blow off tops. I am slowly building a large longer term Copper short position that I can scale into - TP will me the weekly 50 SMA. I have found the most rewarding types of trades are the one where things are way off side confirmed by Linear Regression, SMAs, and Bollinger Bands. When you have math giving you a statistical edge, that is something that you can lean into IMO.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Baero-Trading
Copper - Just the BeginningCopper futures broke out of their wedge this week, with per tonne prices breaking the $10,000 milestone. Names such as Freeport-McMoran (FCX) are benefitting from this, while TRQ is on discount due to. setback in their mining process. Despite Fed tapering, copper is strong, surprisingly. I believe that now is the time to get in "The New Oil", as stated by Goldman Sachs, who gives the commodity a 50% upside before 2025. If copper moving 10% has resulted in Freeport going from $30 to $39, think of what will happen if Goldman and the rest of the Street is right... Thesis: Goldman Sachs recently published a note declaring copper "the new oil," and forecasting it could reach $15,000 (50% inc.) by 2025 as the world transitions to clean energy. As the movement to sustainability/clean energy progresses, the exponential increase in demand for copper will outrun supply due to slow mine creation, centralized property rights. Although it may take a few years and experience some drawdown, depleted inventories and a demand spike will likely cause the price to rise significantly over the next decade, with Bank of America suggesting a possible 100% increase to $20,000 per metric ton by 2025. Overall sentiment on the Street is extremely bullish in the mid-to-long-term.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by nickygin
Copper Prices Take Aim for May 2021 High Post Triangle BreakoutCopper futures are aiming for the May high at 812.60 after prices confirmed a breakout above a Descending Triangle chart formation. The 200-day Simple Moving Average helped maintain the dominant uptrend as the red metal continues to consolidate since earlier this year. A drop back under the July high at 768.50 could undermine upside progress, reorienting copper back towards the SMA. Clearing the May high exposes the 78.6% Fibonacci extension at 851.8636 towards the 100% level at 900.60. COMEX:HG1!
MCX:COPPER1!
by QM_Dubrovsky