HG1! trade ideas
High grade copper HG looking bullsihCopper traded on the COMEX looks bullish.
Currently at 3.20 per pound, the chart shows an Eve and Adam bottom forming between 2015 and now. The expected target of this move would be 4.70 which would put the market five cents above its old high set in Feb 2011 of 4.65.
From 4.65 I would expect the market to revisit the 3.30-3.60 region to make a strong bottom for a longer term ascent.
Looking back further on the copper chart, there is a longer term Adam and Eve bottom forming starting in Dec 2008 to present. The target would be 7.365 based off of this longer term pattern.
If copper were to trade up to 4.70 area and come back down to 3.50 area, it would also present an opportunity for an ascending triangle to form with the same target, 7.365, as the Adam and Eve pattern.
With a weakening dollar, look to copper for guidance on inflation going forward.
Weekly copper market review 11/23/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.2910 per pound.
Hope for a vaccine is fuelling the markets, and Pfizer and Moderna announced very encouraging results. Many countries, such as the United States, Germany, Spain and others, are already preparing vaccination campaigns. The pandemic continues unabated, with more than 58 million cases worldwide and more than 1.382 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 256,000 deaths and more than 12 million cases.
The hope of a vaccine, as well as the prospects of a massive stimulus package, is driving the markets. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 92.392.
Copper stocks are historically low and declining. Copper stocks are down sharply to 328406 MT, a drop of 8.27%, or nearly 30000 MT . This confirms the good health of the Chinese manufacturing sector and China's willingness to accumulate strategic stocks of the red metal. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest importer of copper, and data suggests an acceleration of the economic recovery in Q4.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, China's industrial production was +6.9% in October. In the United States, retail sales were down to +0.2% in October from +1.2% in September, and US industrial production was down to +1.1% in October.
- On Monday, manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone were at 53.6 in November compared with 54.8 in October, and composite Markit PMI at 45.1 in November compared with 50 in October, a sign of the slowdown in the recovery in the Euro zone. The US manufacturing PMI rose to 56.7 in November from 53.4 in October.
- On Wednesday, orders for durable goods, inflation, unemployment registrations, and U.S. GDP.
- Thursday, Thanksgiving in the US. ECB report.
- Friday, Thanksgiving and close of trading at 13:00.
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 157350 MT from 165200 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 96766 MT from 117949 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 74290 MT from 74830 MT the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 328406 MT compared to 357979 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 92.392, and the trend is still bearish. Joe Biden, who will be invested on January 20, spoke of a $3 trillion support plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has called on the FED to return unused funds from emergency aid programs for the coronavirus crisis. The FED has decided to do so, although it considers this decision premature. Last week, this did not cause much movement in the currency market, which remained relatively calm.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated commodity markets.
COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS
The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators).
The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe.
The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 67.162 K instead of 65.069 K.
Copper smashing new highs and it isn't even 2021 On the back of growing demand out of China (50% of global demand), Asia recovery and general optimism from Vaccine news, Copper has reached record levels that haven't been seen since June 2018. Last night's U.S. manufacturing in November saw the quickest pickup since September 2014, driving expectations of higher base metals demand in the US for next year. Low prices have kept new copper mines from developing, and a shortage of scrap has also helped drive up pricing. At $3.00 per pound, copper becomes an attractive investment for new miners, so no doubt new copper mining projects will be speed up. Nevertheless, new mines take a while and increasing demand will continue to put prices under pressure for the immediate future.
COPPER PROBABLY IN ENDING DIAGONAL WAVE C or WAVE 5Copper is about to finish an ending diagonal wave C or 5 of a higher degree and will soon enter a bearish wave correction ( Declining volume supports ending diagonal structure and will give confidence once price breaks below the converging trend line with a higher volume daily close )
We will take short positions only when the price retrace backs and fail to make a higher high and breaks below the swing low that will be our entry point, Stop loss will be placed on the last swing high once trade is entered
Targets for correction wave are Fibs 0.32 , 0.5 and 0.618 ( Ending diagonals tend to retrace back to there starting point )
Aggressive traders can take positions once price is touching or breaching the upper trend line of the triangle, also look for a reversal candlestick pattern on the daily close
Divergence on Volume, RSI and MACD etc.
Weekly candlestick is building a shooting star pattern which will further bring confidence to this trade if the week does close with a shooting star
The risk/reward ratio on this trade is exceptional but this will be a long term trade
💡 Volume is the key factor at breakout below
Let see how this plays, Good Luck !
Disclaimer: This is for informational purpose only, anyone taking trades using this idea will be liable of their own loss
copper short1h time-frame:
end of 5th wave.
MACD and RSI sell signal.
fibonacci price levels created a strong price cluster.
4h time-frame:
end of wave C.
bearish engulfing candle with trigger.
CopperLook at this little chart. screams short in my opinion. so lets try building a small (short) position over the next few weeks and see if it holds. remember, as soon as your position turns green, take risk off and play with the banks money. it doesn't take huge contract size to make money, all you have to be is "right" in your directional call. this type of trend is showing in many different charts right now. the market is waiting for U. S. stimulus which will come with Biden. in the meantime look for pullbacks. and don't use stops, if you can afford it.
COPPER PROBABLY IN ENDING DIAGONAL WAVE C or WAVE 5Most probably Copper is about to finish an ending diagonal wave C or 5 of a higher degree and will soon enter a bearish wave correction (Declining volume supports ending diagonal structure and will give confidence once price breaks below the converging trend line with a higher volume daily close)
We will take short positions once the price breaks below the last swing low, Stop loss will be placed on the last swing high once trade is entered
Targets for correction wave are Fibs 0.32 , 0.5 and 0.618 ( Ending diagonals tend to retrace back to there starting point )
Aggressive traders can take positions if price touches the upper trend line of the triangle
Weekly candlestick is building a shooting star pattern which will further bring confidence to this trade if the week does close with a shooting star
💡 Volume is the key factor at breakout below
Let see how this plays, Good Luck !
Disclaimer: This is for informational purpose only, anyone taking trades using this idea will be liable of their own loss
CopperTagged the top of the channel/resistance. Wouldn't be surprised to blow through it all honestly.
Weekly copper market 11/16/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER
Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.1780 per pound.
Hopes for a vaccine are fuelling the markets, Moderna announced very encouraging results on Monday. The pandemic continues unabated, we have just surpassed 54 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.320 million deaths. Faced with the second wave, Europe has been confined. The United States is the most affected country with more than 246,000 deaths and more than 11 million cases, and is also taking restrictive measures such as in New Jersey and Michigan.
The copper market is still bullish, the hope of a vaccine with Pfizer or Moderna, as well as the prospects of a massive recovery plan with the Biden administration are carrying the markets. The dollar is still low and in a bearish trend, the DXY closes Friday at 92.755.
In addition, copper stocks are historically low and declining. COMEX+LME+SHFE stocks are at 357979 MT. The good health of China's manufacturing sector and its willingness to accumulate stocks is fuelling the upward movement. Chinese industrial production was up 6.9% in October, for the 7th consecutive increase. Over the first 10 months of this year, Chinese imports were up 40% compared with 2019, with 5.6 million tonnes of refined copper compared with 4 million tonnes in 2019. China is the world's largest copper importer.
ECONOMIC RESULTS
- Last week, Chinese exports increased by +11.4% in October, and imports on the other hand disappointed with +4.7% against +9.5% expected.
Industrial production in the Euro zone dropped to -0.4% in September for +0.7% expected.
- On Monday, the Chinese industrial production was +6.9% in October, the unemployment rate in China is 5.3%.
The New York FED manufacturing index fell to 6.30 in November from 10.50 in October.
- Tuesday, US retail sales and industrial production.
- Wednesday, Euro zone inflation, US building permits.
- Thursday, U.S. Unemployment Claims, Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index.
CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS
- London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 165200 MT from 172450 MT last week.
- Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 117949 MT from 139657 MT the previous week.
- Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange rose to 74830 MT from 73568 MT the previous week.
- Total copper stocks were down to 357979 MT compared to 377339 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 92.755, after a sharp decline in early November. The U.S. elections will continue to bring volatility to the currency market. Joe Biden will be sworn in on January 20, the Senate remains Republican for now, but a second round will be held on January 5 in Georgia. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the size and date of the famous plan to support the American economy. The Fed has announced that it will increase its "firepower" if necessary. Forex traders therefore anticipate an increase in the money supply.
The pandemic is not weakening, Europe has reconfirmed itself in the face of the second wave, the United States is also taking new measures of restrictions in certain states. The hope of a vaccine, with the announcement of Pfizer, calms the markets and prevents for the moment the dollar from playing its role as a safe haven. Caution is still called for, however, as many questions about vaccines remain unanswered. The dollar has a strong influence on the price of raw materials, and it will be very difficult to predict its evolution in the coming months.
A low dollar is generally favorable to the dollar-denominated raw materials market.
Shorting a Bull-trend? Liquidation in copper.I usually try not to short bull trends, and only keep long positions. But this one seems juicy:
- Nice Bull-trend post-corona.
- Reaching summer-18 highs.
- Top of trend line.
Usual risk when shorting bull trends is a continuation just below the top trend line, in which case it is possible to hold until it finally swings down, or to find a place to liquidate the short position without too big a loss.
Happily taking comments.
Copper SHORT; Gold / Copper and Wall Street's mass delusionCOMEX_MINI:QC1!
Like the title says; SELL it - SHORT!
Regarding Wall Street's conviction, the "check mark shaped recovery" and other tall tales ...
.... this is the summary post.
... and here is their "Copper delusion"
Let's try Reality! ...
... Shall we?!
The original Gold / Copper Ratio post
COPPER is a HARD SELL / SHORT here! Headed to $1.000This is the Monthly Chart and as such, signals are reliable, and in this case: self explanatory.
SELL, as well as feel free to bet the farm!
Best to all
Copper futures - HG - Elliott wave analysisCopper futures - HG - It is in flat correction after impulse over. It is in C wave down and 3rd of C is in progress. sell with stop level above 3.176 at current level for target zone around 3.025 level.
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