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HG1! trade ideas

Weekly copper market review 11/02/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed lower at $3.0470 per pound. The worsening health situation with a sharp increase in covid-19 cases in the US and Europe has strongly impacted the markets last week. With the magnitude of the second wave, Europe is reconfirming itself, as is the case in Ireland, Czech Republic, France, Germany, England, Portugal, Austria, and countries such as Spain and Italy, and others are taking increasingly drastic measures, such as curfews, closing bars and restaurants, or limiting people in meetings. The United States is seeing a record number of covid cases in the run-up to the election. The rise of the dollar also weighs on the price of copper. It can be explained by the safe haven status of the greenback, and by the postponement of the American support plan. Chilean copper production amounted to 484K tons for September, a decrease of 0.8% compared to 2019. Accumulated production in September amounted to 3,302 thousand tons, an increase of 0.5%. Chile is the world's largest copper producer. Total copper stocks are down to 383314 MT, losing 23415 tons in one week. In the United States, the American election is scheduled for tomorrow, November 3, and tensions in the market cannot be excluded. Investors fear the possibility that Donald Trump will be declared a narrow loser and do not want to recognize the results, making the transition more complicated and delaying the vote on the long-awaited plan to support the US economy. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, as a pleasant surprise, US GDP rose by +33.1% in Q3 for an expected 31%, and in the Euro zone, GDP was +12.7% in Q3 for only +9.4% expected. - On Saturday, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 for an expected 51.3. - On Monday, the Caixin manufacturing PMI representing small and medium enterprises in China comes out at 53.6 for 53 expected. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI is at 54.8 for 54.4 expected, and the U.S. manufacturing PMI is at 53.4. - Tuesday, the U.S. presidential election and industrial orders. - Thursday, Euro-zone retail sales. - Friday, the U.S. employment report. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - Copper stocks on the London Stock Exchange are down to 171300 MT from 180300 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 139657 for 155506 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are up to 72357 MT from 70923 previously. - Total copper stocks are down to 383314 MT compared to 406729 MT last week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up to 93.882. The 2nd epidemic wave is scaring the market and the Dollar seems to be playing its role as a safe-haven currency. The chances of a quick agreement on a plan to support the U.S. economy are now nil. We will have to wait now for the election result, and this is beneficial to the Dollar in the short term. On the FED side, things will certainly remain frozen until the outcome of the American election. The FED has insisted on the need for a quick vote of a support plan, and assures that the key rates will remain permanently low. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 66.916 K instead of 67.265 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
HGCOPPER - BUY - 4H SupportHGCOPPER - BUY - 4H Support Buy @ Current/Market Stop Loss @ 3.04211 Take Profit @ 3.19432 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔺 Disclaimer! The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice. 🔺 It is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions. 🔺 You must do your own research to create your own trading plan for the market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn5418842
Elliott Wave View: Copper (HG) Correction in ProgressShort term Elliott Wave View in Copper (HG) indicates that the metal has ended the rally from March 19 low at $3.218. The entire rally is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. The 5 waves move higher ended wave ((1)) at $3.218. Wave ((2)) pullback is currently in progress to correct cycle from March 19 low in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Down from wave ((1)) high at $3.218, wave ((i)) ended at $3.126 and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at $3.161. The metal then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) towards $3.077 and bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at $3.1125. The metal is expected to end wave ((v)) soon which should also complete wave A in higher degree. Afterwards, it should rally in wave B to correct cycle from October 21 peak before turning lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at $3.218 high stays intact, expect rally to fail below there in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. The larger degree structure as explained in the video suggests the metal has broken higher from multi decade consolidation which implies a bullish outlook. Thus, the anticipated correction/pullback in wave ((2)) is within the context of a bullish market.
COMEX:HG1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
The major Exchange Traded DerivativesChina continues to privatize companies, open its markets to foreign investors, and develop relations around the future silk road. In 1 month China is launching its international Copper future. It sounds interesting but I do not know if individual investors care enough for this future to be available with my broker, maybe IG will have it. As the USA declines (and perhaps Europe), China might become the "hub" for commodity derivatives (thinking of industrial metals and agri), if this is the case I expect retail traders and their brokers to catch up in only a decade or two (seriously). For this occasion let's look at the most traded derivatives around the world. 1- Agriculture *It is a non-profit, self-regulating and membership legal entity established on February 28, 1993 (when China opened itself to the free markets and emerged out of poverty). Non-profit because that's evil capitalism. Nothing is free though. So who pays? The average chinese factory worker? Haha! Back in 2018 they started opening up to foreign investors (Iron Ore, a little after their Oil contract that was the first one ever open to foreigners), the exchange also has an english website: www.chinadaily.com.cn **The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) is China's first futures exchange,   Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone is China's first Airport Economy Zone.   Zhengzhou is not a SPECIAL economic zone, it is only an economic zone. Unsurprisingly China is not big on "financial" products (interest rates & equity index) but they are big on more basic things: Agriculture & Mining. 2- Energy So ye Moscow, NYMEX (CME), and London ICE mostly. 3- Metals 4- Equity Index How many contracts would you want? Yes. India and Brazil are at the top of the list. India is famous for its overvaluations and many gambling bagholders, and Brazil for its large numbers of gambling day traders. Stocks and stock indexes (and ETFs) have by far the most individual investors, as those are supposed to be more noob friendly due to having a much lower skill floor. Think of it (lol players) as Yasuo, Master Yi and Volibear mains. For HOMM the equivalent is 3 months afk farm Necro on a giant map. They have been convinced that it was a positive sum game where everyone can make easy money. There are 2 major categories of retail investors: bagholders & day gamblers. They both consistently lose. Due to the power of compounding day gamblers lose money much faster than bagholders, which is why people advise individual investors to stick to bagholding. Bagholding also gives people more time to think it through and quit with some of their money left, while day gamblers will have lost most of their money before the initial excitement has waned off. 5- FX 6- Rates 7- Other No idea what all of this mess is. For my part I only trade a couple of those: 3 grains, 2 metals (Gold Copper), Texas Oil & NatGas, all on the CME (7 total, with some correlations). Sometimes I look at softs on the ICE and Nickel on the LME but I don't really touch them much. Rarely will get into indices, I do follow where they are going from far away. I actually am active in the smallest derivatives that make 7.4%, 5%, 4.9%, 1.6% and 1% while avoiding equities that make 50% :D But I do Forex alot, got around 10 currencies in my watchlist. With correlations and everything I would say FX is about twice to thrice as big as commodities for me. There is already plenty to do and plenty of good uncorrelated opportunities to go for. With on top of that the occasional Bitcoin or major indice or stock bet, I'd say that's about as far as someone can push it with just being coinflipping. I know that professionals hold stocks for quarters or years, Forex for a few days or a few weeks, retail just day trades everything, and I do not know for indices and commodities and rates. But I know commodities sort of behave much more like FX than equities and open interest fluctuates similarly so I would say we are looking at weeks to month in my opinion, for professionals of course, retail just day trades everything they'd day trade overnight swaps and EOD indexes if they found a way. There are alot of those futures. More than enough to have your hands full. Might have some bubbles in China in the future and if this is the case I'll be the first to know way before mainstreet gets all excited and rushes in at the top (and push it higher) as they often do. In July 2019 ZCE Apples (bigger than CME Corn) gapped down by 40%. I am not ready for this. Unless they have some "fair and profit-free" options :D I wouldn't mind getting some surprise 40% infinite gains with tiny limited losses. I guess they are not big on "evil profit driven too abstract for me to understand" speculation. Haha so how are their behinds after that 40% gap with no speculator to absorb the risk? 😉 There HAS to be broken flaws to exploit in the future. Maybe when that happens they will rollback all trades "for fairness" silly commies. Well too early to tell, we will see.
COMEX:HG1!Education
by MrRenev
2
HG - Copper futures - Elliott wave analysis Welcome guys, CycleWave is the top author sharing trade ideas based on EW analysis since last five months on the global stocks, currency pairs, cryptos, future indices and commodities. You can follow us to get more trade ideas/analysis. HG - Copper futures - It seems in the final 5th of 5th wave from major bottom and might be one more high away to end the final wave. So wait for more price action and don't consider it as buying opportunity, because it may turn bearish if the count is about to finish. Alternatively it can extend the up move. So overall price remains choppy to bullish until price stays above 3.0965 and it turn bearish if price broken down below 3.025 level. Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
COMEX:HG1!
by EWFcw