Copper Futures have shown volatility with significant price move
Price Movement
Current Price: The current price is around $4.3430 per pound.
Recent Trend: There was a significant upward movement earlier in the year, reaching a peak around $5.0810, followed by a correction.
Support and Resistance:
Support Level: Approximately at $4.1445, marked by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance Level: Around $4.5000, near the recent highs.
Volume Analysis
Volume: The volume appears to be relatively stable, with occasional spikes during significant price moves, indicating strong trading interest during these periods.
Seasonal Patterns
Monthly Performance:
Historically, months like February, March, and April show varied performance with some years experiencing gains while others see losses.
September and October have mixed results, but November generally shows positive performance.
Yearly Trends: Over the years, there have been fluctuations in monthly performance, with some consistent patterns in specific months.
Technical Indicators
Fibonacci Retracement: The chart uses Fibonacci levels to identify potential support and resistance levels. The 0.618 level is crucial as it often acts as a strong support during corrections.
Conclusion
Copper Futures have shown volatility with significant price movements and corrections. Traders should watch for support at $4.1445 and resistance at $4.5000 while considering historical seasonal trends for potential insights into future movements.
HG1! trade ideas
Copper Technical View Copper Technical View:
- Short term copper looks bullish till it is able to hold above $4.0420. Key resistance now is at $4.3170. If prices are able to sustain above these levels we can expect the next resistance area in the supply zone around $4.4770.
- RSI is up at 59.92 which is adding to the bullish move.
- Intraday support is around $4.2830 and break below this level may see prices slip towards $4.2370-$4.2320 zone.
- Short term strategy is buy on dips around $4.2320-$4.2330.
- Weekly time frame indicates flat to bullish trend. Prices may move towards $4.3580 and key weekly resistance is at $4.6995. Break above these levels we can expect good upside move towards $5.0450 zone.
- A move above $5.1990 will lead to longer term bullish trend.
- On a Monthly time frame, we are moving in a swing bearish leg at present while the order flow is bullish. Only after a break below $3.9200 trend is expected to turn bearish. Monthly resistance is at $4.7035.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Copper - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Copper (HG)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in HG if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy
Sentiment: Advisors very bearish is actually...bullish.
OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI decrease drastically while Commercials have added to longs = bullish.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Bullish Spread Divergence
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & %R
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
COPPER Rejected on the 1D MA50. Will it rebound or break lower?Copper (HG1!) got rejected yesterday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since early July. This is a clear Bearish Leg on a potential Channel Up pattern, so technically, it may form a bottom on its Higher Lows trend-line and rebound.
If it does, our Target will be the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 4.900 as on the January 17 2023 rebound. If on the other hand the price breaks below 3.800 and the Higher Lows (dotted) trend-line, we will take the loss on the buy and sell, targeting 3.3500 (top of 2 year Support Zone).
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Supply Risks may support Copper Financial Futures PriceSupply Risks may support Copper Financial Futures Price
Dow Jones News Wire August 16,2024 :
"Base metal markets are digesting weak Chinese industrial output data and supply-side issues,
A strike at BHP's Escondida copper mine in Chile could affect more than 5% of the global supply, while several mines in Chile have yet to finalize wage discussions
Even a slight loss in supply from these labor negotiations could cause the market deficit to increase. That is capping concerns about weaker demand over the next few months"
Extreme Real Value Indicator gives reversal signal on the weekly chart.
Price Target levels are shown on the chart.
Price levels that induce Fomo #1These price levels are dangerous for retail traders. They are highs and lows of price strucutre. They are walls where price has bounced mutlitple times. They are prices where some traders may begin to chase price in attempt to catch the trend and not miss out. At the same time, they provide great entries for mean reversion traders. Watch and Learn and safe trading.
COPPER signaling the start of rate cuts? Potential danger ahead.Copper (HG1!) completed two straight red months following May's High at the top of the 3-year Rising Wedge pattern. Last time the commodity formed this pattern was back from May 2006 to September 2008. In fact the recent May 2024 Higher High resembles that of May 2008, whose rejection broke the Rising Wedge downwards.
As you can see, during both patterns, the US10Y (orange trend-line) stopped rising and turned sideways on Lower Highs, while the U.S. Interest Rate had peaked and started falling.
What 2006 - 2008 suggests, is that possible rate cuts may be ahead of us, pragmatically the markets have already priced this to a large percentage in September. But at the same time, it highlights the danger of a market-wide collapse, as the first month after the September 2007 rate cut, the stock markets peaked and the U.S. Housing Crisis begun.
What could be different this time and avert a new financial crisis of such proportions is that the stock markets haven't shown any signs of correcting yet. As a result, potential rate cuts may have a mostly positive bullish continuation effect as post July 2019.
What do you think will happen next? Bullish continuation or new Bear Market?
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Copper (HG) - Look for Longs?While the decline in copper persists, @HG is nearing areas of previous demand on intermediate-term timeframes. Specficially, we will be watching the industrial metal's action between the prices of 4.1130-4.0605 (with hypothetical stop lower @ 4.0250). Given the current momentum and potential add'l downside per larger timeframes, we recommend watching for micro-TF trend violation/reversal confirm signals before establishing positions. This idea is bolstered by a backdrop more broadly of metals having pulled back and a AMEX:USD that looks vulnerable vs. physical assets over the longer-term. Of course "Dr. Copper" is more closely linked to the global economy vs. GC (which we like better), but price, ultimately, remains undefeated + copper will become a value buy at some point...
Godspeed,
JHart
COPPER ANALYSIS
The market from May 2021 have been corrective in nature, I am currently counting as expanded flat for intermediate wave 2. The market is currently in minor wave C which will be bearish impulsive wave. If this count is valid, it will drop the market to the price range of $2.8290 to $3.1555 per lb. i.e 0.5 to 0.618 fib level retracement of intermediate level 1. The market still remains the final arbiter, and the count will be updated as the market progresses.
Copper (HG) Double Three Elliott Wave Correction in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave View in Copper (HG) suggests that correction from 5.20.2024 high remains in progress. The internal subdivision of the correction is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5.20.2024 high, wave (W) ended at 4.305 and rally in wave (X) ended at 4.7015. Wave (Y) lower is in progress as a zigzag structure. Down from wave (X), wave ((i)) ended at 4.551 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 4.657. The metal then extends lower again in wave ((iii)).
Down from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 4.476 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 4.6025. The metal turns lower again in wave (iii) ended at 4.2 and wave (iv) rally ended at 4.242. Wave (v) lower ended at 4.162 which completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((iv)) is currently in progress to correct cycle from 7.10.2024 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before it resumes lower again. Near term, as far as pivot at 4.701 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 5.20.2024 high. This area comes at 3.6 – 3.81 where support can be seen.
Gold's Next Big Move: Is This the Reversal Point?4-Hour Chart Analysis
Trend Identification:
Higher Highs (HH): The chart shows a consistent formation of higher highs (HH) which indicates an overall uptrend.
Higher Lows (HL): The chart also demonstrates higher lows (HL), further confirming the uptrend.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels:
Around 2,480 and above are marked by HH.
Support Levels:
2,429.42 (1HR LQZ / Reversal Point)
2,391.39 (4HR LQZ / TP 1)
2,349.05 (TP 2)
2,288.09 (TP 3)
2,265.37 (TP 4)
Price Action:
Triangle Pattern: A triangle pattern formed in June indicating consolidation before a breakout.
Current Movement: The price has moved up to a higher high but is currently in a retracement phase, testing the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point around 2,429.42.
Projection:
Potential Reversal: If the price holds above the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point, it may indicate a reversal back towards the higher levels around 2,480.
Support Tests: Failure to hold may lead to testing lower support levels at 2,391.39 (4HR LQZ / TP 1) and potentially further down to TP 2, TP 3, and TP 4.
1-Hour Chart Analysis
Detailed View:
Provides a closer look at the recent price movements.
Confirms the higher highs observed in the 4-hour chart.
Key Observations:
Recent High: The price recently reached a new high around 2,480 before retracing.
Immediate Support: The price is testing the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point around 2,429.42, aligning with the 4-hour chart observations.
Trading Opportunities:
Long Position: If the price shows strong bullish signals and holds above the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point.
Short Position: If the price breaks below the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point, with targets at lower support levels identified in the 4-hour chart.
Summary
The charts indicate an overall uptrend with recent higher highs and higher lows.
Current price action is in a retracement phase, testing key support levels.
Monitoring the 1HR LQZ / Reversal Point will be crucial for determining the next move, whether it will resume the uptrend or test further support levels.
If you need further analysis or specific trade recommendations, feel free to ask!
Copper testing 4.50/ATHCopper is testing all time high right now.
I published this idea almost 3 years ago, oh my, trading is not for impatient people :
Currently there is short term speculation that copper buyers might buy a substitute, and news that producers are reducing output. Short term!
The news is the manifestation or what is happening on the chart, or is it the other way around? Both the talking/news/speculation and chart are asking the same question : Is the price actually going to go up, past $4?
People finding substitutes is probably very minor and just an answer to prices getting high, physical buyers are shy - FOR NOW - about buying at all time high. Literally the same as traders. Exact same thought process. Substitutes are not as good, it may only cover something tiny like 3% of the demand.
Also output getting cut pushes prices up, why are producers struggling to maintain margin at these high prices? Maybe everyone needs to stop coping and realise inflation is a reality and bear were right.
I cannnot pinpoint the bottom. Any strategy could work I imagine, buying a pullback when it strats going up, buying breakouts, trying to catch the short term bottom without a stop to tight (or it's just catching falling knives), some macd cross strategy, dollar cost averaging. 61.8% fib, previous high retest, buying on some trendline or moving average. Also patterns such as flags.
From experience I believe the entry strategy isn't that important, what is most important is cutting losses, taking good trades based on an intelligent analysis, and high risk rewards - being able to cut trades quickly regardless of being wrong or right.
No matter the entry strategy I am convinced of two things: No matter the strategy FOMO never works out, and I always use a stop.
I am not 100% convinced it will go way up to $8 or even above 5 but I do not care about being right, I care about taking risks to make money. This caught my eyes 3 years ago and it looks juicy!
July Seasonal Long Copper HG1!: Seeking Gap & clean highs-We retraced down to 50% of the 2024 up leg, finding support.
-We neatly found support at the Volume imbalance W and the midpoint of the Fair value gap M, circa 50% of said 2024 up leg.
-July has a strong bullish seasonal tendency.
~The plan would be to take partials (half off) in the gap (FVG- fair value gap) circa 4.75; and move stop-loss up to trailing.
~If this runs up hard & fast, ideal target would be the high time frame clean highs 5.24
~Timestop: End of July marks end of seasonal bull, so depending on the price action context, i'd be inclined to close the trade as we enter into August.
~If this proves bearish and i'm wrong, I would close the entire position if we come any lower than a mere peep below the late June low; stop-loss would be at 4.31
**B-ADJ toggled ON; SET toggled OFF.
**Just an idea for paper trading purposes, not financial advice.
Copper with a strong buy signal. May now rise to USD 1,200.Technical Analysis of Copper
The copper price is in a long-term rising trend, from back in 2016 (cf. chart), and a further rise is signaled in both the short and medium term for copper.
A strong technical buy signal has also recently been triggered for Copper, and after breaking up from a large right-angled ascending triangle consolidation formation.
The potential indicated for Copper according to this large consolidation formation is indicated by the red dashed lines in the chart.
A potential for Copper is thus indicated at around USD 1,100 - 1,200 in the 6-9 month term.
Furthermore, there is now a significant technical support level for Copper around the USD 825.00 level (the previous resistance level that Copper recently broke above and then triggered a strong technical buy signal).
The overall technical picture for the Copper price is therefore very positive, and further indicates a significant rise for Copper, and then preferably to around USD 1,100 - 1,200 in 6-9 months' time.
There is now little technical resistance to a further rise for the Copper price within this long-term rising trend.
What could possibly change today's very positive technical picture for Copper would be if the price were to get an established break below USD 800.00, and there should now be significant technical support for Copper between USD 800.00 - 825.00.
lad os sethis is a nice idea 123123213123213123te webdokumenter og websider i samarbejde med andre. En wiki er en moderne teknologi (web 2.0), som muliggør, at mange brugere i fællesskab opbygger indhold/viden. En wiki sætter grupper i stand til at organisere og dele indhold og viden på en organisk og fri måde. En wiki bruger typisk et simpelt opmærkningssprog til at formatere teksten med. Nogle wikier tilbyder dog WYSIWYG funktionalitet, så en bruger ikke behøver sætte sig ind i det anvendte opmærkningssprog før wikien kan anvendes.
Indtastede ændringer og tilføjelser er for nogen wikiers vedkommende umiddelbart tilgængelige uden at indholdet bliver gennemlæst af andre, dvs. også uden at ændringerne er blevet explicit accepteret eller godkendt først. Den resulterende samling af hypertekstdokumenter, også kaldet enten "wiki" eller "WikiWikiWeb", er typisk produceret af adskillige brugere
Mange wikier kan med det samme genkendes på deres brug af WikiOrd (eller CamelCase). Disse produceres ved at bruge stort startbogstav for hvert ord og fjerne mellemrummene mellem ordene; dette medfører, at frasen automatisk laves til et link (Wikiped
Copper - Once again a snapshot of the '05 era compared to now
1989 - 2004 experienced years of sideways action then to a final blow off breaking out of pattern onto the next level. This blow off then resulted into a financial crash.
From 2006 (the first top of the '08 crash) to 2023, the market has also been sideways exactly like the past but of course in its own unique way.
Based on analyzing coppers trade pattern it seems that we're located in the times of 2005, three years before the '08 crash.
lets say the market is due to crash in ~2025 this exactly lines up with the clues in the past to say the market will crash in 2026.
With this data you can match your research to add confluence in your investment strategy, trade ideas, and much more.
*Not Financial Advice - DYDD*