HGSM2025 trade ideas
Copper Bounce? $HG1! at Key Demand Zone!Back at a strong demand level on COMEX:HG1! (Copper futures). The key invalidation is a 4-hour close below 3.92, so I'll be watching closely to manually close.
I'm looking for a potential bounce from here, and if the weekly candle closes bullish, I may consider this a reversal setup. The confluence between the weekly support and the current demand zone gives me confidence to take the trade.
If the move fails, my next level to watch is 3.7 for another potential entry.
Let’s see if COMEX:HG1! behaves this time.
FORECAST UPDATES! Silver / Platinum / Copper /Crude OilTuesday Nov. 19
Price has tipped its hand, and traded through the -FVGs on all of the metals. The bullish rallies
give us a bias to base our buy setups on!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Copper Prices Decline as Dollar Rises,Pressuring Foreign HoldersCopper prices are experiencing a deeper decline, coinciding with the dollar index reaching its highest level since early July. This strong dollar makes metals priced in USD more expensive for international buyers, resulting in increased losses for copper.
The dollar's upward trajectory has been fueled by expectations that President Trump's proposed tariff and tax reforms may keep US interest rates elevated, negatively impacting trading partners, particularly China, which is already facing challenges in revitalizing its economy.
Despite China’s efforts to address concealed debt and inject more stimulus into the economy, these measures have yet to translate into positive market sentiment. Slow corporate borrowing in China is raising concerns about future metals consumption, as noted by Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.
From a technical perspective, a demand zone has been identified around the 4.0625 to 4.000 range. Given the ongoing increase in the dollar index (DXY), this price level may be tested soon. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that 'smart money' is holding long positions, while retail investors are beginning to shift towards shorting.
We are closely monitoring this metal for a potential reaction at the identified demand area. This situation presents a developing narrative worth watching in the copper market.
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CopperThe copper chart has faced a price decrease since the first of October, this price decrease occurred at a time when other metals such as gold, silver and platinum had a large increase, since this metal, like other precious metals, has limited extraction. It is and on the other hand it reacts to the price of other metals, it can be used as a long-term and one-year investment, which is indicated to increase the two targets in green in the chart.
Sasha Charkhchian
COPPER HG1! (COMEX) Long D1Buy Stop @ 4.2355
S/L @ 3.9155
T/P1 @ 4.5535
T/P2 @ --------
R.R.R. @ 1/1
Pure Price Action Trading based on Breakout Key Level.
Good Trading !
Tracking Economy with this Ratio – Copper vs Gold RatioThe Fed is using the Copper / Gold ratio in tracking economy and its growth.
Currently, the copper / gold ratio is still trending downward, which indicates that the economy may not be recovering that soon.
Copper Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: HG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Buy CopperBuy at 818
SL 809
Tgt 828,838
I am not a SEBI Registered Analyst. This idea is just for learning purpose.
Bullish Above ~4.35Copper Futures broke out of a falling wedge and it re-testing the top of it, right around a daily support level at ~4.35.
Hold that level and expect a move up
Bullish on Copper - Brown Gold! A resurgence of buying interest is being observed, fueled by increasing institutional adoption and renewed interest in digital assets. I’m looking for Bitcoin to continue its upward movement as market confidence grows
Natural Gas oil dxy gold silver10.18.24. the markets are volatile some nice changes and continuation trades. even though the metal markets are moving higher..... and might very well go much higher... I'm looking for reversal patterns and a correction. we might be coming to a bullish reversal in the natural gas market.
COPPER High probability buy signal on the 1D MA50.Copper (HG1!) is about to hit its 1D MA50 for the first time in a month (since September 16), following a 1D Golden Cross. Coming off a Higher High rejection within a short-term Bullish Megaphone, if the 1D MA50 holds, it is technically the perfect buy entry.
This Bullish Megaphone is essentially the Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up. The symmetrical Bullish Megaphone of September 27 2022 - January 18 2023 peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, our Target is 4.900.
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COPPER: Low risk buy opportunity.Copper is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.137, MACD = 0.100, ADX = 52.223) and that is the ideal buy opportunity as the price is pulling back to the 1D MA50 and the bottom of the Channel Up. We are aiming for a little over the 0.786 Fib (TP = 5.000), like the Jan 18th 2023 High.
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COPPER Bottomed Out: Long Opportunity!Going Long on Copper:
I’m taking a long position in CAPITALCOM:COPPER at this level. If it retraces, I plan to add to my position down to around 4.15.
The weekly downtrend has ended, and this week’s price action has erased the previous bearish expansion bar. There are signs of bullishness on smaller timeframes, and the daily chart shows an active uptrend for the coming week.
It looks like the low may be in on this one. COMEX:HG1!
Copper is Next to Move, Why?Copper is next to move because the Chinese consumers may be coming back.
In last December's tutorial, we discussed how Gold was breaking above $2K and set to move higher, which it did. In April, we anticipated that Silver would soon catch up, and it did as well. Now, I believe Copper will be next, not just based on technical but also on fundamentals.
Micro Copper Futures
Ticker: MHG
Minimum fluctuation:
0.0005 per pound = $1.25
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CopperCopper has made an inverted H&S,if this pattern will succeed I have marked possible targets. Longs only if the neckline will break and price sustains above it. So far it has broken immediate downtrend.
Copper At 4h.chart copper is in consolidation zone atm. There is a potential ABC pattern upwards and potential DT downwards. I am waiting for a breakout to one or another way. Possible scalping between two red zones I have marked.
Copper Futures have shown volatility with significant price move
Price Movement
Current Price: The current price is around $4.3430 per pound.
Recent Trend: There was a significant upward movement earlier in the year, reaching a peak around $5.0810, followed by a correction.
Support and Resistance:
Support Level: Approximately at $4.1445, marked by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance Level: Around $4.5000, near the recent highs.
Volume Analysis
Volume: The volume appears to be relatively stable, with occasional spikes during significant price moves, indicating strong trading interest during these periods.
Seasonal Patterns
Monthly Performance:
Historically, months like February, March, and April show varied performance with some years experiencing gains while others see losses.
September and October have mixed results, but November generally shows positive performance.
Yearly Trends: Over the years, there have been fluctuations in monthly performance, with some consistent patterns in specific months.
Technical Indicators
Fibonacci Retracement: The chart uses Fibonacci levels to identify potential support and resistance levels. The 0.618 level is crucial as it often acts as a strong support during corrections.
Conclusion
Copper Futures have shown volatility with significant price movements and corrections. Traders should watch for support at $4.1445 and resistance at $4.5000 while considering historical seasonal trends for potential insights into future movements.
Copper Technical View Copper Technical View:
- Short term copper looks bullish till it is able to hold above $4.0420. Key resistance now is at $4.3170. If prices are able to sustain above these levels we can expect the next resistance area in the supply zone around $4.4770.
- RSI is up at 59.92 which is adding to the bullish move.
- Intraday support is around $4.2830 and break below this level may see prices slip towards $4.2370-$4.2320 zone.
- Short term strategy is buy on dips around $4.2320-$4.2330.
- Weekly time frame indicates flat to bullish trend. Prices may move towards $4.3580 and key weekly resistance is at $4.6995. Break above these levels we can expect good upside move towards $5.0450 zone.
- A move above $5.1990 will lead to longer term bullish trend.
- On a Monthly time frame, we are moving in a swing bearish leg at present while the order flow is bullish. Only after a break below $3.9200 trend is expected to turn bearish. Monthly resistance is at $4.7035.
COPPER READY FOR ALL TIME HIGH...MCX:COPPER1! trade at 812 level. Chart shows that its break a trendline on daily chart. So you can watch for an upside move...
Wait for Reversal in Copper Future MCXMCX:COPPER1! trade at 780 level. Its now doing a major correction but in long run moving upward side, so you can wait for reversal or play some downside move till 750.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Copper - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Copper (HG)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in HG if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy
Sentiment: Advisors very bearish is actually...bullish.
OI Analysis: Multi week down move has seen OI decrease drastically while Commercials have added to longs = bullish.
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Bullish Spread Divergence
Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist & %R
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.
