COPPER FUTURES (SELL)RSI divergence + break of a triple top + pull-back and we fall for a few days or a few weeks.
The targets are on the chart.
HGS1! trade ideas
COPPER High probability for a reboundCOPPER (HG1!) has been trading within a Channel Down ever since the March 07 High caused of the Russia - Ukraine war escalation. Right now the price isn't just approaching the Channel's Lower Lows trend-line (bottom) but also the March 04 2021 Low of 3.8500. With the RSI dropping below the oversold 30.00 barrier on the 1D time-frame and making a Double Bottom. the market may soon reverse towards the Channel's top again.
The last time we saw all these parameters aligned in the same order was during the May - August 2021 Channel Down, where the price after the RSI Double Bottom on the 30.00 mark, it rebounded above the 0.618 Fibonacci to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel.
Our strategy is to initially settle for a short-term target just below the 0.618 Fib extension at 4.3000 and then re-evaluate as a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is most likely needed in order to reverse the trend completely.
If on the other hand 3.8100 breaks, we expect a sharp sell-off towards the 3.4500 Low of December 10 2020, where the price can also make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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Copper Futures in Bearish TrendCopper futures are continuing it's bearish trend. It has broken the LL of 16th May and 31st Jan as well.
Copper Futures setting up for a potential long tradeCopper / HG Futures market may be setting up for a move back to the upside.
After a huge expanding bullish candle in the beginning of June that saw price blast through the volume Point of Control (POC) which goes back to October last year the price then immediately reversed and we have seen a sell off for the majority of this month. However yesterday we saw a spinning top candle form at a critical point which had been a support level, this has also painted bullish divergence on the RSI indicator.
Further to the above technical analysis we have also seen net buying activity from commercial operators which indicates a slight under supply : demand imbalance. On many occasions large commercial buying can lead to a price hike as supply squeeze takes hold. Lastly commodity seasonal reports also show that copper does have a tendency to sell off in the beginning of June but then turns around at the end June and price upwards again through until end of July before dipping again coming into August.
I would like to see price close above yesterdays close and hold above ~$4.05 which is roughly a support zone. Ideal entries could be above yesterdays high with price targets at ~$4.25 and / or ~$4.40, which are both just below previous support and resistance levels and large volume clusters. However if price cannot break above and hold $4.05 and instead falls and closes under $4.00 then I would not be looking at any long trades.
Copper ShortCopper is in decline.
The 50 MAV has provided dynamic trendline resistance.
Price has rallied from the recent swing low to now be at Fibonacci 61.8 level . A short in line with the present intraday trend is suggested
1. Enter - 748
2. Stop - 753 ( Above 100 MAV and Kumo )
3. Target - 718 ( .618 extension)
RR = 6+
Playing Dr.Copper DownsideIn this update we review the recent price action in the Copper futures contract and identify the next high probability trading patterns and price objectives to target
Copper HG In Super CycleCopper just confirmed a super cycle and to say this is the top price it will reach is a huge mistake. This super cycle could last for a long time. Short beware.
Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from the pivot at 760.90 in line with the overlap resistance and 61.8% fibonacci projection to the 1st support at 738.5 in line with the horizontal swing low. Alternatively, price may rise from the pivot to the overlap resistance at 768.05 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Potential for Bullish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from the pivot at 783.5 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci projection and pullback support and multiple swing high to the 1st resistance at 813.35 in line with the 100% fibonacci projection and overlap resistance. Alternatively, price may break the support structure at the pivot and drop to the 1st support at 770.55 at the swing low.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Copper: Where does it go from here?Since the highs in early March, Copper was stuck in a downtrend with a series of lower highs, but is starting to repair some of the technical damage that was done. The July Copper contract broke out off an inverse head and shoulders pattern on June 2nd but stalled out and reversed off resistance near 4.57, which was previously support and the breakdown point from April 25th (previous support is now resistance). With the recent COT showing a net short position of 13,000 contracts, there could be a potential short squeeze on a breakout above resistance which could open the door for a run back at the top end of the range from March and April, in the neighborhood of 4.80.
changes in the copper chart6.7.22 changes in the copper chart..............................................................................................................
6.7.22 IMPORTANT to recap tradesOIL ES1! Copper " important to over trades at the end of the day........
copper6.7.22 copper trading to target..........................................................................................
Copper Is Forming A Bullish Running Triangle PatternHello traders, today we will talk about copper, its price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott wave perspective.
Copper is trading sideways since May 2021 and we see it trapped in consolidation, ideally within a bullish running triangle pattern in wave (4).
Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs A-B-C-D-E that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3 as an a-b-c. They appear to reflect a balance of forces, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. Triangles fall into four main categories i.e. ascending, descending, contracting, expanding. It is quite common, particularly in contracting triangles, for wave b to exceed the start of wave a in what may be termed a running triangle.
Triangles, by far, most commonly occur as fourth waves. Triangles are very tricky and confusing. One must study the pattern very carefully prior to taking action. Prices tend to shoot out of the triangle formation in a swift thrust. When triangles occur in the fourth wave, the market thrusts out of the triangle in the same direction as Wave 3.
Well, looking at the daily chart of copper, seems like it has completed a three-wave a-b-c decline for wave C and it's already trading now in final stages of "c" of wave D, so final leg E yet to come before rally back to highs for wave (5)?
Technically speaking, we see intraday resistance for wave D around 4.6 - 4.8 area, from where we may see final wave E slow down back to 4.3 - 4.1 support zone.
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Copper Commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Copper6.2.22 Copper: short trade.............................................................................small stop.
Copper rallying hardCopper bounced very hard off the Yearly Pivot, however it doesn't look ready for a new sustainable rally. Maybe this bounce had something to do with a fundamental catalyst, but nothing to do with the bull market resuming. To me the market is in a very clear distribution phase, and it simply bounced after taking out several major lows. Essentially this is a short squeeze / dead cat bounce, and going for the retest of the breakdown. The market tends to go back and retest such key areas before moving to the original direction. Similar story for Gold which is also bouncing and has some room to the upside before it reverses to the downside.
In the long term I do believe Copper will be headed much much higher, especially as governments print more and more, along with the ESG movement. Copper is necessary for the green revolution and that's why I can see it much higher in the long term. However in the short term the price got too high, too fast, and as it failed to sustain above the 2011 ATHs, it is probably headed towards 3.75 and maybe even lower in the next few years.
For now the first key target for this trade 3.95, although someone could simply take partial profits there. The trade has a fairly decent R/R and decent probability of playing out as long as the market gets to our entry.
Potential Bullish Momentum On the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud , we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the pivot at 783.50 in line with the overlap support to the resistance at 801.30 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection . However, we would wait for price to break pivot before going in for the buy. Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the support at 764.45 in line with the horizontal swing low.
Potential Bullish ContinuationOn the H4, with price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will continue to rise from the buy entry at 783.45 in line with the overlap support to the take profit at 801.65 in line with the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and 78.6% fibonacci projection. However, we would wait for price to break pivot at our entry before going in for the buy. Alternatively, price may reverse off the pivot and drop to the stop loss at 764.2 in line with the horizontal swing low.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Copper Commodity USA Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
Focus: Worldwide
By Sun Storm Investment Research & NexGen Wealth Management Service
A Profit & Solutions Strategy & Research
Trading | Investment | Stocks | ETF | Mutual Funds | Crypto | Bonds | Options | Dividend | Futures |
USA | Canada | UK | Germany | France | Italy | Rest of Europe | Mexico | India
Disclaimer: Sun Storm Investment and NexGen are not registered financial advisors, so please do your own research before trading & investing anything. This is information is for only research purposes not for actual trading & investing decision.
#debadipb #profitsolutions
Potential Bearish ContinuationPrice has broken the ascending trendline and is moving below the ichimoku cloud , which supports our bearish bias that price will drop our pivot at 765.75 in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement to the support at 755.45 in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may bounce off the pivot to the 1st resistance at 773.7 in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and the 61.8% fibonacci projection .
