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SI1! trade ideas

Silver short term pullback and long term bullishSilver had a pretty good run since mid October 2022 after months long of price consolidation. It has been moving in a upward parallel channel since mid November. It has hit a key resistance level at $24.5 (Red Line) and failed to break out multiple times since Dec last two weeks.. Today the lower channel line got breached and if fails to get back into the channel , I see Silver might test the $22.38 support level near term and consolidate sideways for some time to build momentum. Failure to hold the $22.38 level will take it to $20.8 support level. If Silver manages to get back into parallel channel and break $24.5 resistance level, next target would be $26.3 Let me know your thoughts in comments.
COMEX:SI1!
by gmaster29
Silver is gearing for a move up, but is it ready?Silver had a huge move up in 2020, but that was all it managed to do back then. Since its first significant peak in August 2020, it went sideways and started declining. Silver was in a big bear market since 2011, then entered an accumulation range, and then had its capitulation move in March 2020. Then with all the fiscal stimulus, it skyrocketed, but most capital flowed into crypto and stocks, not precious metals. As inflation remains high and interest rates could be near their peak, and investment in metal miners has gone down a lot over the last decade, this precious metal that seems to have lost its shine might be ready to shine again. It looks like silver had a very healthy pullback into the top band of its accumulation range. Now resistance seems to have turned into support, and the market could head toward 24$ in the next few months. The truth is that I don't believe that the market has fully bottomed yet, although it could very well have, and that eventually, it will have on final leg down towards 16$ and bottom there. The main reason I think that has to do with how the market bottom is that there are two double bottoms around 17-18, and there is a little 'gap' at 16. Essentially I would like to see the market test 16$ because I want to see it thoroughly test that untested breakout, the Yearly S3 Pivot, and the Volume Profile Point of Control. Another reason that I think the market will go down there again is that I expect a major deflationary episode to take place in 2023, one that has the potential to create a liquidity squeeze (risk asset collapse) that would affect precious metals too. In my opinion, the current move up in Gold, Copper, Silver, etc., mostly has to do with low production/inventories of metals, while demand seems to have bottomed in the short term. Eventually, the market will get crushed again, but I think the bounce has legs for now. Therefore it would make sense to look for longs in the 16-20$ zone and take profits in the 21.7-24$ area. Shorting 24$ might be a good idea, but I would prefer to watch how the price action develops before I step in.
COMEX:SI1!
by BitcoinMacro
Silver Seasonal PlayThe March Silver contract has been trending higher since the bounce from the November lows, continuing to hold trendline support achieving higher lows. There is a great seasonal in play, as the March Silver contract has traded higher 14/15 years from December 20th-February 18th. This does not guarantee the market will perform this year, but Silver is already up over 3.5% on today’s session, and the chart is looking great for upside potential if it can breakout above the December 13th highs. The downside risk comes if we break below the trendline support, and then look to re-test the gap from November 30th.
COMEX:SI1!
by Ryan_Gorman
Silver - Losing Its Shine?Silver commands value both as a precious metal and an industrial metal. Silver is often considered as a poor man's gold. According to the Silver Institute, Silver is used in solar cells (also known as photovoltaic cells which convert sunlight into electricity), electrical switches, and chemical-producing catalysts. Its unique properties make it nearly impossible to substitute and its uses span a wide range of applications. Every computer, handphone, cars, and appliance contains silver. Near-term headwinds for photovoltaic manufacturing in China combined with a strong US Dollar are expected to weigh down on Silver prices in the near term. Our short-term outlook for silver is bearish. With a price rally over the past two weeks, we expect prices to retrace in the near term providing a compelling entry for a short position in Silver. SILVER’S VALUE DRIVERS Silver has been considered a precious metal for several centuries. However, in the modern economy, silver is valued as both a precious and an industrial metal. Silver’s industrial uses range from electronics, batteries, automobiles, dentistry, and photovoltaics among others. As such, nearly half of the annual worldwide demand for silver was from industrial uses over the past five years. In contrast, only 10%-15% of gold supply is used for industrial purposes. SILVER’S INDUSTRIAL DEMAND Photovoltaic demand particularly has been a major factor in recent years with the growing proliferation of solar power. Silver consumption in solar panel production grew 13% in 2021 and accounted for 22% of total industrial usage as per the Silver Institute. China is the global leader in solar-panel manufacturing accounting for 74% of the module capacity and 85% of the cell capacity in the world according to the IEA. With manufacturing in China remaining muted in the short term due to COVID surge and related lockdowns, photovoltaic production demand over the short term is unlikely to influence Silver prices. SILVER AS STORE OF VALUE Silver has underperformed relative to Gold and Platinum this year. Both Silver and Platinum have outperformed over the past month and 3-month periods. Precious metals investments face strong headwinds as investors find relative safety in elevated US Treasury Yields. Although expectations are for the Federal Reserve to ease its rate hiking cycle going forward, that policy pivot remains unlikely anytime soon. SILVER SUPPLY AND DEMAND BACKDROP Fuelled by Silver’s price rally in 2020, supply rebounded in 2021 increasing 5% YoY. However, silver supply plunged into a deficit in 2021. This deficit was expected to widen further this year according to the Silver Institute as demand rises (+5%/1030.3 million ounces) was expected to outpace supply (+3%/1,101.8 million ounces). However, macro backdrop of events this year, from rising inflation, COVID situation in China, to geopolitics, has adversely impacted the demand from the electronics industry leading to excess inventory. Additionally, reduced manufacturing production in China will also lead to lower demand for photovoltaic production. Falling demand, especially in the short term, will likely result in supply outpacing demand. SILVER TECHNICAL SIGNALS & A PEEK INTO SILVER COT REPORTS Silver prices rallied over the past two weeks breaching a resistance band ($20.5-$21.32) that has held since July. Following this rally, RSI moved into overbought territory at 72.18. Additionally, on the 200d and 10d moving average (MA) we see a golden crossover forming. However, if we take a longer short-term MA (20d) to look at the larger uptrend that began on 14th October, the Golden crossover is far from likely to occur. Moreover, the rally faced resistance at the 200d MA reaching a high of $22.38 which is 3.99% higher than the 200d MA on the day. The highest close was just 2.8% above the moving average on the day. Both these levels are within 2x standard deviation of the Implied Volatility of At the Money Options (31.01%) as seen on CME's QuikVol. Nevertheless, the current rally does deliver promise as it confidently breached R1 of the pivot point indicator. This level of $20.95 now indicates a support level for the rally. CME’s Commitment of Traders (COT) tools shows that despite the price increase over the past month, producers have increased the number of short positions from 20.7% to 24.3% on November 15th. Managed money shorts have decreased from 32.4% to 17.7% while managed money longs have increased marginally from 26.7% to 28.2%. SHORT SILVER FUTURES TRADE SETUP CME Micro Silver Futures provide exposure to 1,000 Troy Ounces of Silver with a maintenance margin of $1,700 as of November 22nd. This provides a cost-effective way to get exposure to movements in Silver’s price. Establishing a short position with an entry price at $21.18/oz with a potential target at $19.88/oz (1x standard deviation of IV of ATM option above the pivot point) by Dec 16th (two days after the next Fed meeting) could provide exposure to a short-term correction in the price of silver yielding 76.47% returns or $1,300. A stop loss at 1x standard deviation of IV of ATM option above 200d MA at $21.88 would protect against an unexpected rally resulting in loss of $700 or -41.18% providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.86. Alternatively, holding the position until the pivot point would lead to 98.82% returns or $1,680. As the correction is expected to be in the short-term, December futures could provide superior liquidity. CME’s full-size Silver futures provide exposure to 5,000 Troy Ounces of Silver with a maintenance margin of $8,500 and improved liquidity in case of larger positions. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or for use by or to be acted on by any person or entity located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, use or action would be contrary to applicable laws or regulations or would subject Mint Finance to any registration or licensing requirement.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
Silver chart overviewDuring the Asian trading session, the price of silver solidified support at the $23.20 level and launched a new bullish impulse to the $23.50 level. We now see a downside pullback and could revisit this morning's support level. If the pressure on the lower support level increases, a breakout of the price below is inevitable. The price would then drop down to the $23.00 level. To continue the bearish option, we need a negative consolidation. Potential lower targets are the $22.80 and $22.60 levels. For a bullish option, we need a positive consolidation and a break above the $23.60 level. Then it is necessary to maintain up there and start further recovery with a new bullish impulse. Potential higher targets are the $23.80 and $24.00 levels.
COMEX:SI1!
by Financebroker
Silver Breaking Out (upward). Gold/Platinum should followGold/Silver bugs - are you ready for what a lot of us have been saying for the past 5+ years. The base/bottom in metals back in 2015 was the critical base for the next big move. This upward price swing should be the next accumulation phase which will drive a speculative phase in about 3~4+ years. That speculative phase will be MASSIVE (should happen near 2027~2029). You gotta love when the world sits and waits for metals to move - then ignores the 40% rally in metals/miners in the early phase - right? Here we go.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by BradMatheny
Gold Silver12. 4. 22 It looks like gold and silver are going to trade higher, but there's a chance is that they could correct the little lower first, and I believe a lot of this Might be related to how the dollar moves. I think the relationshipOf the two index markets did I talked about today versus the metals markets I talked About today...Has some irony to it because the indexes have been and have a correction higher, and I would think that they should trade lower, whereas the currency markets were trading lower and now have a bullish swing movie Higher... and I think they should go higher. It's almost like a paradox: Both groups trending lower, and both groups finding a foolish wing, but I'm looking at one group trading higher and the other trading lower. I'm not bringing this up to be clever. I am always concerned when I have a conviction that a market should go in one direction, and then I feel blindsided when the market actually does the exact opposite of what I expect I know this can happen, even with the best intentions, but I really want to avoid it to the best of my ability, and my way of dealing with this is to try to think as best as I can about what both the buyers and the sellers are thinking before I place my trade.
COMEX:SI1!
by ScottBogatin
Silver is up 32% from Sept 1 - Ready for the next move higher?Have you been following my research, weekly videos, and Custom Metals Indexes? If so, you already know why I've been telling traders/investors Gold/Silver are setting up just like 2003-04: building a momentum base over the past 24+ months. The next move higher (over the next 5+ years) should be incredible. Silver is up 32% over the past 90 days. Can you imagine what the next 500+ days will look like? Remember what happened to Silver between 2007~2011? Imagine that, but with a potential amplitude of 2x or 3x. Get ready, it's all just getting started right now. Follow my research. Learn why you need to prepare for the biggest opportunities of your life with my research/algos.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by BradMatheny