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SI1! trade ideas

Silver Surging HigherSilver has been in a downward range since the March highs, and is now showing some life to the upside, breaking through the 50-day moving average. We hit a fresh low near 17.50 and were in oversold territory, and since then the market has melted to the upside through strong resistance. Silver still has a ways to go to recoup the losses on the year, still down around $3.00 since the start of 2022. All eyes are on CPI tomorrow and how the dollar will hold near strong support levels, which will be a major catalyst for the precious metals.
COMEX:SI1!
by Ryan_Gorman
Silver SI1 - $35 Is as Far Away as SaturnOne of the most dangerous things about what is going on in the world today, and thereby the markets, is that the middle and lower classes of society are being directly targeted. There are different forms that the Marxist principle of "Redistribution of Wealth" takes. Decades ago, it took the form of the "scum of society" being mobilized by the Communist Party to invade and occupy places such as farmland. Then, the evil regime would let the anarchists hold the land for a few years, before ultimately sending in the military to slaughter them and take it for themselves. This is what "communism" and its precursor "socialism" are really all about, and you'd be wise to reject the entire thing if you want nary a hair of a future. In recent history, we saw a manifestation of this scheme when the Antifa and Black Lives Matter anarchist groups destroyed property unchecked during the "Summer of Love" riots. That property, which previously belonged to small business owners, often had insurance claims denied and was scooped up on the cheap by large corporations. In present history, the establishment is simply using a combination of the marketplace and "inflation" to achieve the same ends. The problem for silver/gold/platinum bulls is that much of the reason you are bullish is predicated on the narrative disseminated to you that "the dollar is going to go bust because the FEDERAL RESERVE keeps PRINTING MONEY OUT OF THIN AIR and what happens when we can't SERVICE OUR NATIONAL DEBT ANYMORE?!" This is all true, but you should really give it some thought: in the age of computers, social credit, digital identity, and central bank digital currencies, did you really think that the answer to this problem lied in trading metal for rice and flour like we did in traditional times? You should always remember that the markets can, and will, remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. Some people turned all of their cash into silver and gold, and a bunch of canned fish and beans, waiting for the Mad Max days. Well, what lies ahead is a painful rout on consumer commodities, personal debt, and personal incomes that will leave people desperate and in need of cash liquidity to survive. And in order to get that cash liquidity, they'll have to sell the silver bars they paid $25-30 for over the course of the last two years back to the fence at prices like $7 or $8. To be clear: if high prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. natural gas, oil, corn, wheat, prices will go UP. If low prices of the commodity will hurt the middle class, i.e. silver, gold, bonds, prices will go DOWN. It's going to look something like this (disclaimer: I'm no artist.) And although you might think to yourself something like "single digit silver again? What a buying opportunity," or "Lmao it'll never drop that far" you should bear in mind this is only true if it bounces in two days back to new highs like it did during "Coronavirus Disease 2019" hysterics, and it'll "drop that far" exactly because retail is thinking "it'll never drop that far" and will fancy themselves brilliant to HELOC and rent a dump truck at $16 and $12, only to get crushed. If prices are depressed over the long term you won't feel it's very fun to spend money on a bunch of metal that tarnishes brown if you leave it merely sitting on your desk. I have some. I really like it. But it tarnishes brown while sitting on my desk. Even a dollar store fork doesn't do that. After retail and the middle class have totally capitulated their spot metals, then, and only then, will we see $35, then $50, then three digit silver. Of course, this assumes that this society can last that long. And although it can't, the sociopaths on Wall Street will continue with their plans even as the stars in the sky explode before our very eyes. In the meantime, you should be clear that this is no dip to buy. Silver has no price action to make at $21 until a major reversal, which is not on the horizon, and it is not going to double bottom in any meaningful way at $18. Ironically you can still blindly short this and if your leverage isn't horrific and your timing isn't worse, you'll make some good money.
COMEX:SI1!
by LordWrymouth
Silver Beginning Minor Wave CSilver has completed minor wave B, bouncing off the 0.786 Fibonacci level on Monday, August 22. We should now be in minor wave C. There are a few possible highly clustered targets for wave C. 21.560: the minimum target. This is where wave C would equal wave A. 21.635: the 0.382 Fibonacci level. 22.565: the minor wave 4 extreme. 22.755: the 0.5 Fibonacci level. While wave C can go above the 22.755 level without breaking any Elliott rules, it will most likely terminate in the 21.560-22.755 range.
COMEX:SI1!Long
by epistemophiliac
Not a silver lining.Silver is special as it is both an industrial and precious metal. So, let’s look at Silver from both points of view to identify what seems to be dimming the shine on this metal. As a precious metal, we can compare silver with the dollar and yield as both affect the demand for precious metals. Dollar and silver are generally negatively correlated, with a stronger dollar leading to weaker silver. In the chart below, we see this relationship at play until the start of February 2022, when it started to weaken. It seems the effect of a rapidly strengthening dollar has not been reflected in the prices of silver and we expect this gap to close, resulting in lower silver prices. The 10-year yield also provides us with a reference to understand where silver might trade at. A high yield environment is often considered headwind for precious metals as investors prefer holding yield-generating assets in such periods. In the chart below, we see can observe the roughly negative relationship between yields and silver, with periods of lower rates showing higher silver prices and vice versa. With the Federal Reserve indicating that they are still not done with the rate hikes to combat inflation, silver might take a dent in upcoming rate hikes. Secondly, we can look at business and consumer confidence to gauge the potential demand for silver as an industrial metal. Generally, higher business and consumer confidence indicate expansionary periods, which translate to higher demand for industrial metals. With the University of Michigan consumer confidence index at a low and United States Business Confidence Index turning lower, such negative outlook will slow demand for silver as a form of industrial metal, potentially adding resistance to prices. On the technical front, silver is sitting right on the 19-dollar level, which has acted as a key support & resistance level over the past 10 years. An attempt to breach this level a few weeks ago was rejected and prices are now back to retest this support. On a shorter timeframe, we also see silver in a descending channel pattern indicating a downwards continuation pattern. With the dollar strengthening, higher yields, and downbeat business and consumer confidence, the macro backdrop for silver does not look rosy. Overlaying that with the bearish technical price action, we think Silver is likely to struggle. Entry at 18.960, stops at 20.160. Targets at 16.620. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
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COMEX:SI1!Short
by inspirante
17