UX1! trade ideas
Uranium Commodity USASun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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UX1! Uranium SpotUranium Spot is respecting the arc with multiple touches across the last decade.
At Present Uranium Spot has pushed through the supply demand Zone with is a very positive sign for the Uranium market bull case.
There are two scenarios I see playing out over the coming months in relation to Spot. The Uranium spot prices will either follow Scenario A marked on the chart and trades back into the Supply/Demand zone, Backtests the broadening wedge breakout point and continues its trajectory.
OR
The spot falls back into the Wedge and comes back to re-test the ARC boundaries before finding support and continuing its run.
Option A will see months of consolidation IMO after the run Uranium has just had and could cool off the market in the near term,
Option B is a much longer consolidation period and could take the best part of 2022 to resolve and see interest return to the U market.
This could all change if Utilities get the finger out and actually start their contracting cycles which could see an overnight jump in the spot.
holding and adding to U positions as this resolves. Its a marathon not a sprint.
UX2! #URANIUM The bottom is NIGH! 34.40 and soon! Then we POP!OK OKOKOKOK
Uranium in a freefall? Is it?
So where is the bottom??
$34.40 - see the chart for explanation. I see a big multi-leaf IH&S. Tricky chart ! But there it is. I have seen no better explanation for this chart.
Tips accepted ;)
#UX1! #URANIUM looks good!! 0.382 fib ast 38.1, RSI70 clear.SPINUranium looks good!! RSI670 clear of teh structure
0.38 fib coming up , with orange linejust below
I guess we've settled what was noise adn what was a shoulde with teh coloured arcs.
Tie to go up again now.
#uranium #UX2! cpoming down to the 0.382 fib - may a/c for $UUUULet's see!!!
nice retrace
NMothing goes up in a straight line.
IH&S proceeds
$UX1 #Uranium Time for a Pause With the recent jump in uranium price and many people are jumping on uranium stocks and a bit of FOMO is going on at the moment. Surely uranium has a bright future ahead being a efficient and reliable clean energy source, but is this a good buying point ?
zooming out, yes uranium is above it's 6 years high back in 2015 , but if you look closely, it is very close to the support level in May 2010 and Nov 2012.
Conclusion: I will wait for a retrace of uranium price before jumping in again.
The case for Uranium: Master Plan with a Price Target of 100$+In the early 2000s, the flooding of the McArthur River and Cigar Lake mines were immediate black swan catalysts that further accelerated the existing bull market into a mania moving uranium spot prices to a peak of $150/lb in 2007. The flight to commodities as an inflation hedge following the Great Recession served as an additional catalyst underpinning the macroeconomics behind the commodity boom of the 2000s. The last bull run ended when higher supply combined with the fallout from the Fukishima nuclear disaster sealed uranium into a now decade long secular bear market. Given the lack of speculation, mines today have been idled and the industry has been in consolidation and liquidation ever since. Over the past decade, Uranium prices have descended into the abyss.
Because it costs more than $50/lb to mine uranium, the current spot prices indicate an extreme imbalance. The former Soviet state-owned-enterprise, now publicly traded Kazatomprom has forced cheap supply onto the market over the last decade, however overly bearish sentiment has held back the necessary investment in new mines and exploration leading to consistent annual supply deficits. New reactor construction in China and India has lead to strong growth in uranium fuel demand. Given the extreme asymmetry and cyclicality of uranium spot prices, investors are presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity.
On top of that, COVID19 has lead to further supply constraints. Cameco's Cigar Lake Mine, which accounted for 18% of worlds supply, was and remains closed. Now, mining companies such as Denison have started actively buying uranium off of the spot market to fulfill their obligations.
Its only a question of time until the remaining supply wont be enough to fill demand.
At that point, we could experience a bull market in Uranium and the mining companies of epic proportions.
Note that uranium bull markets are multi-year to even decade long affairs.
My estimation is that we will see prices go to around 50$ in the short term, and then continue a rise up to the 70-90$ region, where price could be sustained for longer periods.
However, on shorter timeframes, this longer term target could certainly be overshot, and by a lot.
Does 150$/lb sound realistic? Perhaps.
While we haven't had a bear market as severe preceding this bull market as we had in the early 2000s, you would need to account for other factors too.
Adjusted for Inflation, 150$ in 2007 would be around 200$ in todays prices.
On top of that, there could be additional catalists coming up along the way.
My plan is to start selling my miners once we reach the 70-90$ range, and let a portion run to see how high we can go. If we go significantly above 100$, I will make sure to not sell the rest of my shares below 100$ U308.
Keep in mind that miners tend top out before the price of actual Uranium. Catching the top will be difficult, and there probably wont be a lot of time for it.
My favourite ways to play this is to go long on $UUUU, $DNN, $CVV, $FCU, $NXG, $URE, $CCJ.
Since there are only about 20 publicly traded mining companies with (high) exposure to the uranium market, of which around 15 are viable investments in my oppinion, even a "spray and pray" approach probably will likely be able to reap in significant returns if my thesis plays out.
Once the tide rises, it wont matter too much in which boat youre in.
2021-08-28 Uranium U308 - longEasily moving to 40 a pound. Looking like great momentum to the upside. Back test of downtrend complete. Tight consolidation in last last few months and pressing back up to last swing high.
Have to be ready to get some positions on over the next few weeks and months
Uranium to Gold Miners RatioUranium to Gold Miners Ratio indicated further upside ahead for uranium prices
Uranium Spider ChartLets see if UX1 can get back to all time highs by the end of 2026. Will if follow the concentric rings of the spider web all the way? We'll find out!
URANIUM UX2!Another small advance in #uranium sport price UX2! @ $29.35. Price is slowly moving through the other side of Ichimoku cloud. Lagging span is almost there. Conversion line and candle sticks need some more work to do. Looking promising.
UX1! URANIUMDespite current uranium minor sell off and lack of spot price movement we are still in an uptrend for uranium price. Recent article was about musical chairs - so music is currently playing and 1 of the parties will not have a chair when music stops.
URANIUM UXC U308Uranium is set to move much higher according to this Ichimoku Cloud chart. The cloud has turned from red to green and the price @ $30.50 is hovering just outside of red cloud. Blue conversion line passed under yellow base line and is now outside of the red cloud. The most important confirmation is that Lagging Span is outside the green cloud as well. Looks like all 4 requirements are met.
Also Stoch, MACD and RSI are looking very good and in uptrend mode. Looks like this week uranium sector is ready to move up nicely along with a spot price.
URANIUMToday we have reached a critical point in uranium spot price $30.50 which a resistance line. When breakout takes place above this price 20 DMA will cross 50 DMA. 50 DMA will be ready to do a GOLDEN CROSS by passing 200 DMA. Cup and handle in formation. Everything pointing to a serious move in a spot price which will positively effect a share price for all of the uranium miners. Good luck. Holding and Long
Uranium Futures as of March 16th 2021If the breakout of the bullish flag holds, the next resistance is the 200 day moving average. Measured move based on the flagpole pattern is $40.
UX1! Uranium Price is Ready to move upWith current 60 million pounds annual deficit production price has to move up North substantially. From technical point of view Stach and MACD indicators pointing that price will start moving starting this week. Movinng averages are pointing down at this point but that could change with price moving towards $30 range and above.
