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MGC1! trade ideas

Will The Gold Rally End When Large Speculators Buy?A few weeks ago we reviewed Gold price action and positioning and how Large Speculators (blude column and traditionally trend followers) started to sell Gold which I could not explain. Well, they continued to sell Gold futures, and now Gold is breaking out making new all-time highs. If anyone knows who is buying this Gold, please comment and let me know, because it is not Hedge Funds trading with size (aka Large Specs). Small Specs (yellow column) have been buying but their size is so small, not sure that is what is driving price higher. As Gold continues to be the commodity to watch in 2025, when will the market turn? As long as it is not crowded to the long side, the trend can continue for a while, especially if Large Specs continue to sell. I would keep watching to see when they start buying week over week (not just one week), where they commit to the trend, and hopefully they get max crowded, providing a potential short trade in Gold with high reward to risk ratio. Until then, and as I always say, don't short all-time highs.
COMEX:GC1!
by Crowded_Market_Report
9
The Brightest Metal Right NowGold isn’t just shining, it’s on fire, burning through resistance levels as investors seek shelter from global chaos. Figure 1: Gold Prices Climbing to New Highs Gold surged past $3,000 per ounce this March, setting 16 record highs this year alone. While it took more than a decade for gold to gain 1,000 points previously, this time it took less than two years. Figure 2: Correction in the Equities and Cryptocurrencies In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has dropped 10% since its February peak, marking its first correction since 2023. Bitcoin has also plunged to $81,000, a 25% decline since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The AI-driven momentum that propelled tech stocks and the broader equity market higher in 2024 appears to have faded. Figure 3: Historical Reactions to Crisis The correction in equities and crypto stands in sharp contrast to gold’s rally—an outcome that should come as no surprise given gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. Historically, financial crises and major market pullbacks have consistently triggered capital flows into gold as investors seek refuge from economic uncertainty. This time, gold’s outperformance is driven by a “perfect storm” of prolonged geopolitical tensions, escalating trade disputes, political uncertainty under Trump’s second term, and a weakening U.S. dollar. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, a widely used measure of market sentiment, has remained in the “fear” and “extreme fear” zones. This stems largely from Trump’s protectionist policies, which have sparked swift retaliation from U.S. trading partners. With new tariff headlines surfacing almost daily, the future of economic policy and inflation has become increasingly uncertain, injecting heightened volatility into global markets. This has, in turn, strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability. Figure 4: Gold’s Demand is not Limited to Investors According to the World Gold Council, investment demand for gold doubled year-over-year in 2024. However, central banks have been the real drivers of demand, purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years; accounting for 21% of global demand in 2024. The rising U.S. budget deficit and Trump’s "America First" policies have created additional risks for central banks holding large reserves of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing tariff war not only undermines confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner but also raises concerns about the U.S. dollar’s long-term stability as a safe-haven asset. This has accelerated the de-dollarization process, prompting many central banks to stockpile gold as a hedge against dollar exposure. Unlike investors who may hesitate to buy gold at record highs, central banks operate based on mandates, making them less price-sensitive. They are willing to continue accumulating gold at elevated levels, reinforcing sustained demand for the precious metal. Figure 5: A Weakening Dollar Since most gold futures contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, supporting its price. This negative correlation between the two assets has been a key driver of gold’s recent surge. The Trump administration has long argued that the U.S. dollar’s global dominance has kept it too strong for too long, hurting American manufacturers and contributing to deindustrialization. Further, a strong dollar reduces the price competitiveness of U.S. exports and has widened the trade deficit, leading the administration to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. While the Fed maintains its independence and data-driven approach, inflation trends continue to justify further easing. The market has already priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for this year, with expectations that the first cut could come as early as June. Gaining Access to Gold Historically, the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, operated by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), has been the largest gold trading center. Traders use the LBMA gold price as the global benchmark for gold transactions, including central bank purchases. On the other hand, the futures market is the preferred choice for hedge funds, bullion dealers, refineries, and mints to hedge against price fluctuations. Retail investors also typically gain exposure to gold through futures contracts, most commonly via the COMEX gold futures market. However, executing arbitrage strategies between the OTC and futures markets is capital-intensive and logistically challenging. Traditional arbitrage requires buying physical gold in the LBMA market at a lower price while simultaneously selling COMEX futures at a higher price. This involves storing, insuring, and shipping gold to COMEX-approved vaults, making it difficult to determine the fair value of the spread. Figure 6: B3 Gold Futures Contract A more accessible alternative is emerging: Brazil’s B3 Exchange will soon list a new gold futures contract referencing the LBMA gold price. This new contract offers several advantages: Easier arbitrage execution: Traders can capitalize on price discrepancies between the B3 contract and COMEX futures. Lower capital requirements: The contract size is just one troy ounce, 1/100th of the standard COMEX contract, allowing for greater flexibility in position sizing and risk management. Financial settlement: Both the B3 and COMEX one-ounce contracts are cash-settled, eliminating the logistical challenges of physical delivery. Putting into Practice Case Study 1: Arbitrage Strategy Figure 7: Current Available Gold Futures A comparison of the existing gold futures contracts highlights key differences in specifications, including fineness, contract size, and settlement methods. While these variations cater to the diverse needs of hedgers managing different gold inventories, they pose challenges for traders looking to establish arbitrage strategies due to mismatches in contract structures. The introduction of B3’s new gold futures contract addresses these limitations by aligning closely with the COMEX 1-ounce gold contract. This structural similarity simplifies the process of determining fair value in spread pricing, making arbitrage strategies more feasible. The primary distinction between the two lies in their price settlement methods, which, interestingly, also forms the basis of arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices. Additionally, traders can now take advantage of price discrepancies between the two LBMA daily fixing prices by utilizing the B3 Gold and TFEX Gold Online futures contracts. This expands the range of arbitrage opportunities and enhances market efficiency for gold traders. Case Study 2: Directional Strategy By considering all the factors – gold’s safe-haven appeal, geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulation, and a weakening dollar – we believe that this is not the end of the gold rally. An investor looking to express a bullish view on gold could do so by buying the B3 one-ounce futures contract, gaining exposure to gold’s price movements in a more accessible and cost-effective manner. Conclusion As global uncertainties mount, gold’s resilience remains undeniable. Whether as a hedge against inflation, a refuge from geopolitical turmoil, or a tool for strategic trading, gold continues to prove its value in times of crisis. With central banks stockpiling at record levels, the metal’s rally may still have room to run. For investors navigating today’s volatile landscape, gold is not just a safe-haven, it’s a strategic asset poised for continued strength. It is extremely timely to have new trading instruments like B3’s gold futures providing more accessible opportunities for investors. For traders looking to enhance liquidity and capitalize on bid-ask spread, B3 also offers a market-making program. Interested participants can reach out to the exchange for further details.
CLong
by inspirante
asymmetric triangle or Rising wedge ? This chart shows the potential formation of either a symmetrical triangle or an ascending wedge on MGC1! ( Micro Gold Futures). The distinction -- Both suggest consolidation, but the edge leans bearish while the triangle is more neutral until broken. I identified the prior impulse move downward as the dominate leg. Price is currently forming higher lows, but may fail to break past the highs with strength, suggesting potential exhaustion from the bulls. I'm watching for: *A possible false breakout, then breakdown continuation. *The wedge's lower support to be tested. * Confirmation via a clean hourly close or with a bearish engulfing below $3,371.0 My ideal entry would be at the 50% FVG pull back of the engulfing candle. My First TP would be $3303 then my extended would be $3260, stop-loss above $3,380. Reasoning: this idea combines FVG imbalance, 50% institutional discount levels, and price action structure. The pattern also hints at market indecision, so I remain reactive rather than predictive. The market isn't worth it just tells a story and I'm listening to the chapter before the breakout.
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by Aurum-Legacy
Gold silver coffee4 15 25 I wanted to do this video before the market moved any higher today. I don't know if it's a paradox or not but it looks to me like gold is going to go higher today after it's been coiling since last week and I explained the Dynamics of a coil and the expansion of a coil and hopefully I said it clearly enough that you at least understand my point of view... and then whether it works or not it's a matter of what the market does and I can't change the market. so gold is near an all-time high and it looks like the buyers are coming in to take it higher but as it stands it's hard to know what's going on because it's early in the morning and nothing's really happening ... and my explanation would be that as bullish as the pattern is for gold to go higher it's still contracted. on the other hand silver is not contracted at all it is so expanded that there's a possibility that if silver starts going higher it can have very impressive moves because it's an expanded Market... and they move a lot better with a lot more efficiency than a contracted Market. and the Paradox is that the goal looks like it's going higher to a new high and the silver might go a lot higher because it's expanded. and I'm going to tell you right now if you read this none of it may happen ... but I would be very surprised if gold doesn't go higher... it only takes a few ticks. what really is going to be important to me... his if the silver actually trades the ABC pattern that I put on that chart because that pattern creates a very large Target area that can have tremendous effects on the silver market because it would be driven much closer to its all-time high which is $50.... so if silver goes several points higher there's a good chance it can attract more buyers to drive silver closer to its all time high..... in effect this changes the silver market which is lagging compared to the gold market.
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by ScottBogatin
2
Gold Defies the Fed – The Clash for a New Monetary Order🪙 Gold Defies the Fed – The Clash for a New Monetary Order 📈 🏆 Gold Bulls Rejoice — The Chart Speaks Loud From $1,700 to over $3,200 — gold has defied every rule in the macro playbook. It rallied through rising rates, a strong dollar, and a supposed tightening cycle. This move isn't just about demand — it's a signal . 📉 Interest Rate Timeline: 2020–2025 Gold moved counter to monetary logic — here’s the full context: 2022 🔺 R: 0.25 ➝ 4.50 Start of aggressive rate hikes – CPI peaked at 9.1% 🔥 2023 ⚒️ R: 4.50 ➝ 5.50 Peak tightening – gold didn’t flinch 2024 ✂️ R: 5.50 ➝ 4.25 Mid-year rate cuts – inflation cooled to 2.4% ❄️ 2025 🔁 R: 4.25–4.50 Fed paused, Trump pushing for deeper cuts – tariffs complicate the easing path 🇨🇳 The China Factor – A Strategic Gold Game #1 producer AND importer Keeps all domestic production Estimated holdings: 13,000–17,000 tons Investing globally (Africa, Asia, LatAm) Possible BRICS-backed gold currency on the horizon? China isn't just hedging inflation — it's preparing for monetary evolution. 💱 CPI From Fire to Frost 2022: CPI at 9.1% 🔥 2025: 2.4% ❄️ — near the Fed’s 2% target Yet despite “normal” inflation, the Fed holds — a sign of deeper uncertainty. 🧭 The 4 Modes of Gold – Explained on Chart Trump Mode : Aggressive cuts → Gold targets $3,300–$3,600 Feds Mode : Status quo → Gold tests $3,000 China Mode : Strategic surge → Long-term $3,998+ Bitcoin Mode : Digital store of value rises → Gold reverts to $2,537 zone These are not just technical levels — they represent global monetary narratives. 🕰️ Will History Repeat Itself? In 1873, Germany adopted gold. China stayed on silver — and lost its monetary edge. Today, it’s not silver vs gold — it’s gold vs Bitcoin . China stockpiles gold U.S. institutions embrace Bitcoin Trade wars have become currency wars This isn't a normal market — this is the early stage of a global monetary shift . 🔮 Final Thoughts We stand at the crossroads of history . Gold has already chosen its path. Bitcoin is waiting in the wings. And fiat? Under pressure. Stay awake. Stay diversified. The next monetary standard may already be forming. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
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by FX_Professor
8
GOLD, Is it 5th Wave?1. Sharp Movement, Steep Trade Angle 2. Length of 3rd Wave is equal to 5th Wave 3. Ascending Channel TGT is completed 4. Divergence in the Price Movement 5. Nifty Price Movement - It is at a breakout point. The Correlation between 2 asset classes is approximately Negative 0.30 to 0.35 post Covid If this is the case, then price may not move beyond 1 Lakh This will be a great opportunity to book the profit in gold; it may correct to 70000 or below in the next few months.
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by OK_Rane
Short trade 15min TF overview 📉 Trade Breakdown – Sell-Side (GC!1 – Gold Futures) 📅 Session: Tokyo to London AM ⏰ Time: 4:45 AM 📉 Pair: GC! 1 (Gold Futures) 🧭 Direction: Short (Sell) Trade Parameters: Entry: 3324.7 Take Profit (TP): 3288.2 (–1.10%) Stop Loss (SL): 3331.3 (+0.20%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 5.53 ✅ 🧠 Trade Narrative: A short setup during the transition between Tokyo and London. The trade idea is based on combining session timing with the sweep of Tokyo high, where gold often reacts to macro flow and liquidity grabs for a sellside trade idea.
CShort
by davidjulien369
1
Gold Setup: Range or Rip? Here's the PlaybookGold’s been on a tear lately — driven by safe haven demand as real yields soften and global uncertainty lingers. But here’s where things get interesting... We’re now watching what could be a textbook head and shoulders pattern start to take shape. 📊 Current Range: Right now, price is stuck between 3380 and 3280 — and it’s acting like it knows it. ⚡ Possible Scenarios: 🔁 Scenario 1: Range Play Short near 3380 Long near 3280 Let it ping-pong and catch the edges. 📈 Scenario 2: Breakout Long Confirmation above 3380 Look for momentum follow-through into 3420+ 📉 Scenario 3: Breakdown Short Break below 3280 Eyes on the 3220s for a potential flush 🧠 The key? Drop to the lower time frames near these zones and wait for clean setups during active sessions — especially NY open or post-data volatility. 💬 How are you playing this? Breakout or bounce? Drop your take 👇 #gold #tradingview #futures #technicalanalysis #metals #xauusd #tradingstrategy #macro
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by natron
1
Gold evaluation using Trend Fib extension...dual peaksAs you can see from the lower picture...I took two retrace peaks and traced the move with the fib tool and made the smaller one the solid line and the farther one the dashed line... Kinda fits pretty neatly in those lines eh?? Not much more to say, make up what you think the move action will be, I just provide the lines... And the numeration for those lines to be calculated is based off Pi and Fib percentages...so its not an actual default setting...can go into my other ideas where I actually give a table of all the numbers to enter in to achieve said result you see above and below... Both Trend Fibs are with the reverse setting on... ------- 10 min ------- 1 day far ------ This Trend is with the reverse setting off: weekly overview: and the closer daily...notice that 2000 quad peak: and yet closer view...see that bottom line under the sideways consolidation is like almost the same as previous...: finally the 10 min close up: everything but the two arrows is the same from above...so you get a nice overall price consolidation with these lines...
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by CYQOTEK
Gann Box stacking and Gold...funny things alignNot much to explain here...just the boxes all aligned and stacked up onto each other starting from the 1999 low to the bull run high of 2011, and then copied and stacked to show current price action. However, there is a weird thing with boxes of the Gann type. Usually 25 and 75 time allotments, or 1st and last boxes, are the most aggressive moves. But this one has already almost broken the box in the first panel of the 25%. So you will either have a stagnation and then slight down or up drift until you hit the later 75% box at the most right....or you just go "nah, Irish goodbye to yah lad" and jump to the next box up...we shall see. But those lines do hold some weight and you can see the Gann angles had a few good pivots and one generally good line to follow through this initial explosion up. But we go sidesways if the house of bird poo color can clean up their act...pull a Styx and "Come sail away with me..." to the next box up and run to the like 5K limit, who shall know.... -------- from 1999 summer to 2011 summer to move the height of the box.... and its been achieved in merely 2 some years as of this point...oh boy VVVV Notice the 3 peaks at 1900 perfectly aligning with that box edge before the next box is stacked up to accommodate current price action... Your thoughts...right...wrong...or just a :) all welcome PS...These boxes arent made to fit this chart...It is just a pivot low to pivot high and then copied and stacked/extended....But see how that 2nd box times the triple peak and explosion into the newest up move...crazy hmm
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by CYQOTEK
GOLD Follows "Buy The Dip" Mode, Being Supported by 200-hour SMAGold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching $3,500 per troy ounce, new all the history high on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. The $3,500 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever. Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 30-35% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $ 4'000 per ounce in the near term. The main 1-hour graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to forming on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow. -- Best #GODL wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
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by PandorraResearch
Long trade 1Hr TF overview Trade Overview: GC1! (Gold Futures) – Long Position Entry Price: 3395.9 Profit Target: 3469.0 (+2.21%) Stop Loss: 3311.4 (–0.33%) Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.68 🕕 Entry Time: 6:00 PM 📅 Date: Wednesday, 23rd April 2025 🌍 Session: New York PM ⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF Reasoning Narrative GC1! displayed signs of bullish continuation going into the New York PM session, with price consolidating between 3.325 - 3,319 in a tight range above a recently reclaimed support zone, followed by the breakout.
CLong
by davidjulien369
Gold Is Surging , Remains in Bullish Uptrend### **1. Overall Trend** - **Trend Direction:** Strong **uptrend** from early October 2024 to April 2025. - **Price Action:** Gold surged from around $2,800 to over $3,300, hitting a high near $3,329. --- ### **2. Indicators & Strategy Setup** **Strategy Used:** Steve’s DC-MACD Strategy (Manual Settings) - **DC Length:** 20 - **MACD Fast:** 12 - **MACD Slow:** 26 - **Signal Smoothing:** 9 - **Moving Averages Type:** EMA **Overlay Elements:** - **Green/Red Channels:** These represent **Donchian Channels** or volatility-based bands, indicating consolidation vs breakout. - **White Line:** Possibly a shorter EMA used as a dynamic support/resistance guide. --- ### **3. Signal Arrows** - **Red Down Arrows (BEAR):** Sell signals, typically at local tops or when the MACD crosses down. - **Green Up Arrows (BULL):** Buy signals, often following a breakout from consolidation. Recent Signal: - **Latest signal is BULL** in early April, aligning with a breakout above $3,100. --- ### **4. Volume** - **Spikes in volume** around signal points suggest institutional participation. - Noticeable volume increases in: - October (2024) - January and April (2025) --- ### **5. Market Context** - **Current Price:** $3,324.5 - **Pullback Potential:** After hitting $3,329, a short-term correction is possible, but the trend remains bullish unless price breaks below $3,200 with heavy sell volume. --- ### **6. Strategy Effectiveness** - The strategy has **accurately captured several trends**, especially the bullish breakout in late March. - However, **multiple false bear signals** during the uptrend suggest better performance in trending markets than in sideways conditions.
CLong
by MONEYMAXWELL
200 SMA pie for Bears SMA is a bold indicator to know analyze the price run & reccent prices was up by 21% & gap up opening in few trading sessions--makes a great bear move to catch let's understand. ___________________________________________________________________________________ 1) Gold is a commodity. 2) Which oftely don't show the big price moves. 3) 4 gap up opening in last 15 sessions. 4) Unusual volumes and move of the price. 5) Geoplitical Tensions of US-Tarrifs making gold the most attractive investment. 6) 20.65% up from 200SMA. ___________________________________________________________________________________ Less favroble for buyers and with good money for bears to make, unless some investment bank put in a 1/2 Billion.... GoMakeIt
MShort
by rohannegi2112