EWTSU monitoring the end of minute ((b))
Elliott wave trading setup
monitoring the end of minute ((b))
ending diagonal - micro ((5)) developping
MGC1! trade ideas
2025-01-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Neutral. Higher highs and higher lows but bulls are barely advancing the price. We have still not touched 2700 and even if we get there, I think we find more sellers than buyers and continue sideways in a bigger range. Every new high is sold and bulls will only try so many times before they give up. Bears need lower lows below 2660, bulls want 2700 and bulls are still favored for now but only on pull-backs.
comment: 4 pushes up now and selling new highs has been profitable for 3 weeks. 2700 is the absolute max I can see this touching but I’d much rather sell new highs than looking for longs on this.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2560 - 2700
bull case: Bulls want 2700 next but I doubt they will get much higher than that. That view has not changed over the past 2 weeks. They are fine as long as they are making higher lows and higher highs but they will only try so many times before we see a bigger pullback. Structure-wise bulls do not have much going for them and neither the bears. Market is in an upwards trending trading range and you should not over analyze it.
Invalidation is below 2640.
bear case: Pullbacks are getting bigger but bulls buy it all and bears can’t get follow-through selling after a decent spike. The spike is likely someone big dumping huge positions but it doesn’t matter. I expect more sellers to come into this once we get closer to 2700. First target for bears is a break of the trend line on the 1h tf and a new low below 2650. Closing the week at or below 2650 would be good for bears because that’s where we closed last week and my neutral price for now.
Invalidation is above 2710.
short term: Bearish at new highs (at or above 2680) but market is in a trending trading range. Don’t swing for the fences on shorts.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting close to 2680 was good for the past 5 days.
Gold possible Set ups for this weekSo as of right now this is what I'm seeing for possible play's. We have an uptrend but its hitting an area were we need to see a break or this is going to be the place were we start breaking down & making lower lows. We will see what the market gives us. This pair moves really good during Asian Session & London Session.
Gold’s Next Move: Upward Momentum Building at Key SupportGold is reacting exceptionally well to the Fork.
It has not opened and closed below the L-MLH within a single bar, which eliminates any immediate downside expectations.
Instead, we observe a condensed, slanted trading range or coil, indicating that price is being gradually pressed to the upside.
In my previous post about Gold, I anticipated a rocket-like breakout. Since then, price has simply moved down to the L-MLH, finding support there. This price action, coupled with the ongoing upward pressure, confirms my analysis—albeit slightly delayed.
As NQ and S&P approach their respective targets, as outlined in my other analysis, I expect Gold to start moving upward, with targets at the CL and U-MLH.
20pt Stop / 5R Run... Well Done!COMEX:GC1!
"In order to be successful in life you have to learn how to do something so well that the dead, the living, or the unborn could not to do any better." -Dr. MLK Jr.
Self-explanatory... 'Confluence Profile 500K' (Expectational Order Flow + PA) 20pt Stop / 5R Run... 1OOpt Target w/ a 20pt STOP. Covering Todays NY HIGH... #APBTG On to the next 1. #BHM500K
If Daily Supply Fails let's be strategic & Target 4Hr HIGH LONG!COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
"In order to be successful in life you have to learn how to do something so well that the dead, the living, or the unborn could not to do any better." -Dr. MLK Jr.
Here on the Daily TF market opened up and we are currently trading underneath Daily Resistance/ Daily Supply Zone ($2661.4). Now this is my "Confluence Profile 500K" Playbook System to go LONG;
Pillar 1) HTF EOF 'Market Direction' Who has the stronger more dominant hand?
Now everyone's perception is different and that is totally fine. In my personal opinion we are still Pro Trend Bullish. I believe we are caught in the middle of a current HTF Market Correction however LONG TERM I still see GOLD pumping towards $3K. 4Hr TF we are also Pro Trend Bullish lining up directly with the Daily TF. We also have more confirmation being that the 4HR High ($2656.0) was taken out with bar closures / strong aggression to the upside from aggressive buyers lifting the offer deep into the HTF Daily SUPPLY ZONE. So now my PILLAR 1) HTF BIAS has been made. Pro Trend LONG & Counter Trend SHORT.)
Pillar 2) HTF Mitigation leads to LTF Order Flow Entry Confirmation.
Let's wait for a 15m Bar closure above Daily Resistance Level ($2661.4) for our 1'st official signal LONG. If and when we can get this to play out in PA I will keep close update on the next steps in the Playbook.
Before I head off, family I have to say; NOTHING and I repeat NOTHING in the market is set in stone. We play probability & adaptability to market conditions. Let's be skilled. Let's be patient. Let's be focused. Developing a stronger system that performs exceedingly well over time. Continued Success to you all...
Remember; "Our Profession is to Manage the downside costs of printing HIGHSIDE returns of $$$ consistently. Done correctly, well Abundance awaits us." -500KTrey
Gold Possible trade opportunities So my first gold outlook turned out very nicely. 2 sells opportunities came through strong. Still heavily looking for sells but there could be a small buy back up to a weekly zone but we will see what happens.
GOLD ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 07 JAN, 2025©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master.
Wave (ii)-orange may have finished and wave (iii)-orange is pushing lower, aiming for the nearest target around 2,608.4.
While price must remain below 2,681.0 to maintain this view.
On the other hand, the alternative scenario ALT (less likely), suggests that wave ((b))-navy in another development has completed, and wave ((c))-navy will move higher. A push above 2,681.0 would indicate this.
Year ahead 25' GoldGOLD Analysis
The uptrend channel remains intact, with price currently trading near the uptrend line. I’ll shift to lower timeframes to explore intraday opportunities.
Always consider all potential price movements and prioritize trades with the highest probability of success. Remember, patience and precision are essential for maintaining an edge in the markets.
gold shortlook for PM BSL to be taken out then short if Price action remains berish and they are able ot hold underneath
Gold: trend analysis and price targetsCOMEX:GC1! has been very bullish in the last year, up to the record high at 2.800.
Currently the bullish trend seems to have stopped, as demonstrated by the symmetrical triangle configuration that developed starting from october 2024 and still on formation. Inside this consolidation phase , the point and figure analysis shows a double bottom sell signal (2.620 break). This signal is actually a weak one and its main indication is to underweight for those currently long and want to protect themselves from a possible bear market. The new buy-entry level is set at 2.760 .
For those who want to follow this weak sell signal nonetheless, maybe looking for an aggressive counter-trend trade in anticipation of a bear market, it is possible to go short with target price set at 2.460 and stop loss at 2.760. A more ambitious target can be set at 2.360.
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold futures: Neutral but slightly bearish if bears get follow through on Monday. Market tested the 50% of the last leg down and found more sellers than buyers. Bulls now have 3 pushed up which went nowhere as of now. We also closed right at the daily 20ema so this is as neutral as it gets. If bulls get a daily close above 2680, we can continue to 2700 and below 2650 I expect more downside to 2600/2620.
comment: Likely more neutral than anything else. 50% retracement of recent bear leg is 2680 and market stopped there on Friday. We have more room to the upside inside this bigger triangle.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2620 - 2720
bull case: Bulls want a retest of 2700 but they have tried 3 times now and price went nowhere. Friday could have been a retest of the breakout but bulls would need a very strong reversal on Monday to confirm that. Bulls don’t have much until they get above 2680 and then the upside could be limited to 2700. No matter how you put it, this is not strong buying by the bulls and nothing to get excited about.
Invalidation is below 2600.
bear case: Bears sold every new high at made money for 3 weeks now. They also fail to make lower lows and that is why we are in a bigger triangle with bad follow-through after every decent bull/bear bar. I think Friday was strong enough to expect a bit more downside but where do you put your stop? 2680? Very high probability market will retest it or go above before it turns again. Most bears would like to short closer to 2700.
Invalidation is above 2730.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
GOLD/XAUUSD PO3 I see gold's new years candle opened straight with an accumilation to the upside. Meaning OPEN then HIGH, now i want to see the the downside which is the LOW and the CLOSE on to the liquidity.
Gold Futures Outlook for next week So as of right now I'm feeling more shorts coming in for gold. Just going with the trend. There is a buy opportunity possible for retest but if that play's out, I feel it struggle and break down from my buy TP area. If sells play out it's got some good P/L . We will have to see what the market gives us.
Unlocking Gold’s Potential in 2025: What Traders Must Know!!!COMEX:GC1! After a strong rise in 2024, gold has started to solidify its position in 2025. Known for its status as a safe-haven asset, gold benefited from economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and changes in monetary policy. Undoubtedly, by the end of 2024, profit-taking occurred, which caused gold prices to fall from their historic highs. However, as 2025 begins, traders are readjusting their perspectives and strategies, which is providing support to gold.
1. Review of 2024: A Glorious Year for Gold
• In 2024, gold saw a significant surge, with prices rising sharply due to various factors. Changes in central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, played a crucial role in driving gold prices higher. Gold ended the year up 27%, marking a 23% increase compared to the previous year.
• The primary reasons for the pullback from gold's historic highs were twofold. First, traders began to lock in profits, as the annual price increase for this precious metal seemed too good to be true. Second, U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures, began to show signs of an unexpected reversal. After dropping to its lowest point in 2024, U.S. inflation data began to rise, causing the Federal Reserve to reconsider its extremely dovish monetary policy, which led to multiple rate cuts throughout the year. By the end of 2024, traders' sentiment indicated that the Fed was unlikely to cut rates further in its next meeting, which resulted in the U.S. dollar index rising relative to gold prices.
2. Recalibrating with a New Perspective
• As we enter 2025, traders are considering three key factors that could significantly support gold prices. First, a major event will take place on January 20, when the new president will be inaugurated. The elected president may pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates further, advocating for a lower interest rate environment. This suggests that, despite some members of the Fed being reluctant to lower rates, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to do so under pressure from the new president.
• Second, the incoming president is expected to escalate trade tensions with other countries, potentially affecting economic growth and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. If this occurs, it may lead some investors to reconsider the U.S. dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency, which could increase demand for gold.
• Third, we are entering a period in which most investors are reallocating funds within their portfolios. Considering the performance over the past two years and the potential for trade policy-driven geopolitical tensions, we may see a fresh influx of capital into gold.
3. Price Trends
• Gold prices have now surpassed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is a positive indicator for the trend. As long as prices remain above this level, we may see a more bullish momentum in the market.
GOLD LONGGOLD
MTF Analysis
GOLDYearly Demand 64,063
GOLD 6 Month Demand 64,063
GOLDQtrly Demand BUFL 68,021
GOLDMonthly Demand 76,120
GOLDWeekly Demand 74,731
GOLDDaily Demand DMIP 75,700
ENTRY -1 Long 76,930
SL 76,660
RISK 270
Target as per Entry 87,519
Last High 79,087
Last Low 74,871
ENTRY -2 Long 74,412
SL 73,331
RISK 1,081
Target as per Entry 90,599
Last High 79,087
Last Low 73,331
Will gold lose it's shine for sometime ?As we can see dark cloud cover on recent top ,I am little concerned about 'upcoming move in gold as we all know gold is refer as safe heaven in investing world .
Multiple marketsIn January 2nd I've been away from the market for a week or so. I think some of the the index markets are going to reverse and go lower but it's not exactly clear right now. I spent more time than I should have on this video but I wanted to show a few examples of range boxes because I think range boxes are going to be useful in the next couple of weeks.
2025-01-02 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - Bullish. Clear breakout on the 4h tf and market looks like it wants to retest 2700. The triangle is the dominant pattern for now and there is no more resistance until 2700 for the bulls. Market kept above the 1h 20ema since the breakout and any long close to it is reasonable until it’s clearly broken. Bears need something below 2650 again and make the market go sideways for longer to turn it neutral again.
comment: Bullish breakout and very strong close at the high. Clear buy signal and market turned bullish again. 2700 is the next big target for the bulls and best case for them would be to keep the 1h 20ema support. Bears need a strong move down to get below 2650 again and then sideways for many bars to turn it neutral again.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2560 - 2760
bull case: Bulls want 2700 next but I doubt they will get much higher than that. Longing any pullback for target 2700-2720 is reasonable for now. The last time bulls printed two consecutive strong bull bars on the daily chart was in mid December when we moved 120 points up. A measured move from the past 2 days brings us to 2730ish and close enough to the lower highs around 2740/2760.
Invalidation is below 2640.
bear case: Bears were nowhere to be found today. They could not print 1 decent 1h bar and that is why I think today’s price action is so strong. Every small dip was bought and volume is also picking up again. Bears would need something below 2640 again but for now the best they can hope for is to stay below 2700 and go sideways.
Invalidation is above 2710.
short term: Bullish. Want to see 2700 and markets reaction there. Depending on the next pull-back, this could continue to 2740+ and break above the bear trend line but for now I look for longs for target 2700.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying near the 1h 20ema.
Channeling the trend trader's frustrations !!!!Gold has been the subject of significant two way action lately,the problem with two-way action is that it tends to move slowly with a + or -10% bias.
In Gold's case it could be argued that the last 3 months trading has been a pit stop on the road to nowhere.The channel I pointed out some weeks back provided the anticipate support but the lacklustre action makes me think that the downside will be tested again,probably on the rin in to President Trump's Inauguration.
With Hurricane Trump due in Washington on Jan 20th I'd suspect that he and others in his circle will be focused on Crypto and that in off itself might pressurise Gold.The fact that Putin's putative BRIC currency block is to be supported by Gold might induce authorities in the West to manufacture and place multiple impediments on Putin's Yellow Brick road.
Then again we have some interesting new people onboard in the new administration who are not noted for either their social skills,tact or their political adroitness.Expect 1600 Pennsylvania Ave to have particularily noisy neighbors in the first 6 months!
X will have every traders attention over the coming months.
Happy New Year to All!
Gold short terms bullishMarket structure shift on H1 indicates we may revisit the relative equal highs. If I get a return to the FVG, I'd be intersted in seeing price go back higher.
[MCX] Gold Compression Straddle BetGold has a nasty compression. Although techncially it is easy to see the bet of long side is most logical but if you zoom out and see in higher timeframe, the view is on short side.
So, Timeframe analysis does not align at all.
Selling a stradle. On BEP break I will take delivery i.e if it breaks upside, I will retain a short view. If it breaks downside, I will retain a long view.
My bet is - It will fall this year.
