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E-mini Copper Futures

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Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance :3.5555 Pivot: 3.4755 Support : 3.3695 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price below the ichimoku indicator and RSI is moving within a descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.4755, which is in line with the overlap support to the 1st support at 3.3695, where the 61.8% fibonacci retracement and overlap support are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5555, where the overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No Major News
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance :3.5565 Pivot: 3.4990 Support : 3.47325 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the Stoch is below 20, and the price is below ichimoku cloud , RSI is showing a descending trendline and Stoch is reversing from the resistance, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.4990, which is in line with tyhe 50% fibonacci retracement and overlap support to the 2st support at 3.4325, which is in line with the swing low, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection . Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5565, where the swing highs and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No major news.
COMEX:HG1!
by Tickmill
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance :3.5565 Pivot: 3.4990 Support : 3.47325 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the Stoch is below 20, and the price is below ichimoku cloud, RSI is showing a descending trendline and Stoch is reversing from the resistance, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the pivot at 3.4990, which is in line with tyhe 50% fibonacci retracement and overlap support to the 2st support at 3.4325, which is in line with the swing low, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to the 1st resistance at 3.5565, where the swing highs and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Fundamentals: No major news.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv
Copper HG - Is It Finally Time?I have witnessed much consternation on Twitter over the last months and weeks about how Copper, a critical industrial element, continues to decline in price. All the while, like most other metals, the exchange vaults are being raided of thousands of tons of physical spot, which futures markets need to back short positions. One would think this would result in a price increase, and yet, metals have remained exceedingly bearish. Whether Copper can constitute a commodity in a price action cycle that can be considered bullish, rather than bearish, boils down to whether or not you believe that the $5 all time high set during the 2021-2022 bull run is either the ultimate top or the medium and short term top. Looking at the monthly, the situation is more clear: This pattern stands in sharp contrast to say, Soybeans, which has a very similar pattern of price action, but is less bearish over the last 3 months and also failed to set a new all time high during the early 2022 supercycle test run. Soybeans ZS - Lagging the Pack, but Ready to Go And is somewhat more like Wheat, which did take out the previous long term high, albeit only on a short term sweep. Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a Can The contrast is that copper ran the old high three times already. So you really have to consider that the ultimate top may be in. More information on Copper HG can be discerned from the weekly, which shows notable gaps above $4, a healthy V-Bottom following the July dumps, and a close, albeit not-too-close, range bottom to the key Sept' 20 pivot: Breaking it down into the daily, we can see that July month end and August open plinked out a dump high, followed by August being characterized by a slow grind upwards before finally selling off at the end of the month: September, thus far, has opened very bearish, taking out the August pivot (twice, now), yet retaining the overall market structure, and showing an indication that it wants to trade higher. September is not likely to finish in a straight line down. What I like about this call is that while I have mixed feelings that copper will ever see $5 again, despite all the fundamentals saying it really ought to trade for a lot more, the reality is that I believe if it were to turn around and dump to new lows in the low $3s or mid-high $2s, it certainly does this, more likely than not, after raiding the $4 level first, based on how price action has developed. Currently, we're still young in the month and copper has so far traded bearishly, although it's showing a lot of promise in its price action that higher prices, rather than lower prices, are sought for now. The situation in this world is very strange at present. Energy shortages and food shortages are looming, hard, especially if you are in Europe. Recession, aka "Depression" is looming everywhere, and yet the U.S. equities market is still trading pretty high and for a lot of us life is just normal, albeit not as pleasant as before. The dollar index is mooning and many critical currencies from other countries, including ones as strong and crucial as Japan, are being slaughtered, and yet, no matter how siren-sounding Twitter is, price action does not reflect a degree of panic really anywhere. Even WTI Crude Oil, which I called would trade towards the $81 mark at the beginning of August, is trading in such a fashion that despite losing 30% of its value, there is still no fear, no shock and awe. WTI Crude Oil - Running and Gunning And even so far as Natural Gas NG has already lost more than 10%, somehow despite all the fundamentals saying otherwise, nobody is batting an eyelid. Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? Right now, everything, everywhere, is just business as usual, and another dip to buy. But for how much longer? A 72 VIX print is looming in the cards, and the lack of fear will truly have such a move catch many off guard. VIX - 9x8 = 72 The hardest thing in trading is not determining the direction or the targets. Instead, the hardest thing is gauging and predicting _when_ the move will happen and how it will unfold, since time is weaponized, and not very many things go up or down in a straight line all that often. Frankly, reason stands that the reality is that we will see Copper trade for prices like $10 in the relatively close future, and if so, then this price action we're sitting at is truly the place where the abyss will start to rage from. But to go long for that day... when does it really unfold? More likely than not, if you want to aim for numbers over $5, you're looking at a date in 2023, and it's very hard to trade options and futures that far out. And never forget, the world's greatest "black swan" looming is the coming collapse of the Chinese Communist Party . When that day really unfolds, most of the world's population will be bamboozled and caught off guard, which is why I call it a "black swan." But in reality, it is a development that is so, so easy to see. If you can't see it, maybe renounce your faith in communism, socialism, Marxist-Leninist stuff, and have better thoughts. Position yourself with the mentality that saw the world defeat Hitler in World War 2. The CCP has killed more than 100 million of its own people during its sanguine 100-year reign, including the 23-year-long organ harvesting persecution against Falun Gong meditation. How much longer can a group of rogues squatting in Shanghai last, soaked in sins like that? Rationality is simply too critical, and the level of one's rationality is connected directly to the level of their morality.
COMEX:HG1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish rise Resistance :3.5000 Pivot:3.4735 Support : 3.4170 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price pullback from the support, breaking the descending trendline, MA10 is above MA30, combined with the fundamental news, we have a short term bullish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 3.4735, where the current price is to the 1st resistance at 3.5000 where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the support at 3.4170, where the swing lows are. Fundamentals: Because of Chinese administration, the decline in copper production in Peru, and a steep fall in the DXY , copper shows a pull back trend from the support.
COMEX:HG1!
by Tickmill
Copper Futures (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish rise Resistance :3.5000 Pivot:3.4735 Support : 3.4170 Preferred Case: On the H4, with the price pullback from the support, breaking the descending trendline, MA10 is above MA30, combined with the fundamental news, we have a short term bullish bias that the price may rise from the pivot at 3.4735, where the current price is to the 1st resistance at 3.5000 where the previous swing high is. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to the support at 3.4170, where the swing lows are. Fundamentals: Because of Chinese administration, the decline in copper production in Peru, and a steep fall in the DXY, copper shows a pull back trend from the support.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Genesiv
COPPER FUTURES (HG1!), H4 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop Resistance :3.5785 Pivot: 3.4160 Support : 3.2760 Preferred Case: On the H4, with price breaking the trendline and moving below ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that the price will drop to the pivot at 3.4160 where the swing low support, 78.6% fibonacci projection and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once there is downside confirmation that price has broken pivot structure, we would expect bearish momentum to carry price to 1st support at 3.2760 where the pullback support and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could rise to 1st resistance at 3.5785 where the pullback resistance is. Fundamentals: No Major News
COMEX:HG1!Short
by Genesiv
Copper OutlookFirstly, historical trends on Copper price are extremely important to understand. As we can see from the chart, Copper has been in an ascending channel with an 8% trend angle since 1988. In March 2020, a well-developed bullish triangle ended a decade of corrective action. Corrective waves of the same degree are more closely related to each other than impulses are and this can clearly be observed here. In addition, both primary corrective waves (2 & 4) lasted for nearly a similar period, the 2nd correction with a flat ABC structure lasted for 12 years (1989-2001) while the 4th correction (2006-2010) nearly lasted14 years. There are five waves in a major movement that can be identified. Completion of the fourth implies that the fifth impulsive wave is now underway and this simply gives an early signal that Copper prices could be pointing towards amazing highs. The intermediate count is a lower degree illustrating a possible completion of the second correction in a lower degree and this is always an amazing sight to see since the next wave (3) of 5, may be equal to, or 1.618 times the length of (1) in 5, cannot be the shortest wave and is usually steeper than the first wave. As a result of the anticipated thrust, we may see an overthrow from the main ascending channel over the next few years, driving prices to $7.80/lb or at least $6.69/lb (1.618 Fib retracement level). A confirmation level is highlighted in chart at $4.88/lb. Disclaimer: The information provided here is only for educational purposes and should NOT be taken as investment advice.
COMEX:HG1!Long
by Timgucci