QC1! trade ideas
Copper (update)Update: The Copper / Gold ratio is now hitting levels not seen in 3 years. Pushing thru this level would be a major confirmation for base metals and commodities in general.
There are candles from in 2011There are candles formed in 2011 on M chart around $4.5. I wonder if this would act as a resistance.
COPPER EYES NEW HIGHCopper continues its strong upward trend, pushing towards a new high of 4.7 which is the 1.618 fibonacci retracement.
Elliott Wave View: Copper Should Remain SupportedShort term Elliott wave view in Copper (HG) suggests the rally from April 1, 2021 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from April 1 low, wave 1 ended at 4.16 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 3.988. Wave 3 is currently in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 4.034 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 3.9985. Copper then extends higher in wave (iii) towards 4.277, and dips in wave (iv) ended at 4.223. Final leg higher wave (v) ended at 4.2965 and this completed wave ((i)) in higher degree.
Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 4.2039 and the metal has extended higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 4.296 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 4.2465. Wave (iii) ended at 4.517, and wave (iv) is in progress as a zigzag and should find support at 4.4 - 4.43 blue box area for 1 more high to end wave (v) of ((iii)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((iv)) before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 4.2039 on April 21 remains intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Copper (Lower time frame version)DD is the same as my previous post:
From my daily level post:
Bullish on copper with the current confluence of news -
Goldman called copper the new oil due to its links to the green energy sector and gave a very bullish price forecast citing a potential future shortage due to "demand increasing 900% by 2030"
Coinciding with this was the mining strike in Chile - first the rumblings of a strike then the actual strike itself. Chile produces roughly 25% of the World's Copper .
Currently we are in a bullish channel on the daily chart and I expect we could see a bounce off the upper trendline, especially if positive news from Chile breaks at the same time as the price reaching this area.
Comment on current intraday:
Copper (and Corn futures) broke the intra-day channel heading to the secondary intraday support of ~4.390, rebounding at a psychological support of 4.45. Note this took me by surprise completely and stopped me out of my trade, as I moved up my stop to 4.485
Not sure what caused the big dip just prior to the US equity market opening (SPX / SPY also dumped on open) answers on a post card please?
My bias is still big time bullish due to the reasons in my original (shorthand) DD above. Please let me know your thoughts
Thoughts on CopperBullish on copper with the current confluence of news -
Goldman called copper the new oil due to its links to the green energy sector and gave a very bullish price forecast citing a potential future shortage due to "demand increasing 900% by 2030"
Coinciding with this was the mining strike in Chile - first the rumblings of a strike then the actual strike itself. Chile produces roughly 25% of the World's Copper.
Currently we are in a bullish channel on the daily chart and I expect we could see a bounce off the upper trendline, especially if positive news from Chile breaks at the same time as the price reaching this area.
Copper Heads for the Highs
A late February peak runs out of steam and makes a comeback
LME and COMEX stocks rise
Inventories can be a mirage
Goldman Sachs makes a bullish call- Three reasons for higher copper prices
Heading for new high- Copper could go parabolic
In March 2020, nearby COMEX copper futures traded to the lowest price since June 2016, when it reached a bottom at $2.0595 per pound. In February 2021, the price traded at a decade high at $4.3630 on the continuous contract. Copper fell during the height of the global pandemic’s impact on markets across all asset classes. The price moved from a four-year low to a ten-year high in a little less than one year.
The trend in copper is higher, and we could be on the verge of a move to prices above the 2011 $4.6495 peak. Copper is a building block of infrastructure worldwide, but it is also a metal with many industrial applications.
A late February peak runs out of steam and makes a comeback
The trend of higher lows and higher highs in the copper futures market remained intact at the end of last week.
After reached a continuous contract peak at $4.3630 in late February, the highest price in a decade, copper pulled back below the $4 level, reaching $3.8760 in early March. Since then, the price has been climbing and was back above the $4.33 level at the end of last week. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the COMEX copper market moved from a low of under 162,000 contracts in May 2020 when copper’s price was under $2.40 per pound to the 247,572 level at the end of last week with May copper futures settling at $4.3360. Rising price and increasing open interest is a technical validation of a bullish trend in a futures market. Weekly price momentum and relative strength indicators were well above neutral readings and rising. Weekly historical volatility at 18.76% indicates the bullish trend is slow and steady. The metric reached a high of over 37% in May 2020.
Copper backed off from the February decade-high peak, but the price came storming back and is now a stone’s throw away from an even higher high.
The semiannual chart shows dating back to 1988 illustrates the all-time high came in 2011 at $4.6495, only 31.35 cents above the closing price on April 23.
Heading for new high- Copper could go parabolic
Copper was below the 2011 high on Friday, April 23. The LME price was under $10,000 per ton. Goldman Sachs’ forecast is for $11,000 per ton in the next twelve months. However, as “copper is the new oil,” the longer-term price expectations are far higher as they see demand rising much faster than supplies. Goldman sees copper at $14,000 per ton in 2024 and $15,000 per ton in 2025, over 50% higher than the current price approaching the 2011 high.
Bear markets often take prices far below where logic dictates. If you have any doubt, look at an oil chart from April 20, 2020, when NYMEX futures fell to the negative $40.32 per barrel level during a tidal wave of selling. Bull markets have a habit of moving to levels that are far higher than analysts expect when a buying frenzy creates parabolic moves. Lumber was at $251.51 per 1,000 board feet in April 2020 and moved nearly five and one-half times higher at the recent $1374.70 level. Copper is not the only commodity rallying these days. Grain prices experienced explosive gains last week. Palladium, a thinly traded precious metal, rose to a new record high at $2928 per ounce last Friday.
Copper has bullish winds behind its sails from a fundamental and technical perspective. The red metal looks set to climb to new heights as the copper bull market appears firmly intact. When markets trend, picking a top can be a tragic mistake. Sit back and enjoy the ride, even though it could become bumpy. The risk of corrections rises with prices in bull markets.
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Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading.
Cooper: the next pullback stage is necessary.Since Mars 2020 until now, Cooper did make an extremely bullish run phrase. What I am looking at the resistance area where Cooper needs to take a "breath", that could likely be a great shorting chance.
I’d consider that a nice arche rally - distribution phrase in Cooper is about to finished/ completed, then we will see the huge SPRING, mark down phrase towards the 3,6-3,8$.
Market Area: (DOUBLE top resistance) 4,33 - 4,39$ (above this area, this trade could be reconsidered or even invalid)
Entry: 4,33 - 4,36$
Stop loss: Above the Swing high (4,39$)
Taking profit:
• Target 1 in the first white box areas 4,15 - 4,25$
• Target 2: 3,9-4,0$ (around right at the EMA 200)
• Target 3: 3,6-3,8$ (the bottom in my own opinion could be LOWER than the SWING low of 21 Mars 2021 at 3,87$).
Risk/ Reward: 1:6 ( If price did make a SWING Lower low to refill the wicks in 21 Mars, then it would rally again, target 3 = reached)
The main bias in Cooper chart is still bullish, however a big correction is necessary now to attract more buyers in the demand zone.
Thank you for any comments and sharing.
Copper / Gold resolution pending?Gold is beginning to show some signs of life. But, interestingly, Copper relative to Gold is finally resolving higher, with a new 52 week hi this past week. Speaks to robust demand for copper, but investors must stay alert for other clues on commodities, yields and inflation.
HGK2021. Bullish recently, now hesitancy at prev high.I believe in you copper. You are a very good metal. But, are you overpriced? Hard to say.
COPPER Buy SignalPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded on the 1D MA50.
Target: The 1.5 Fibonacci extension level (low-risk) or the 2.0 Fibonacci level (high-risk).
Previous COPPER signal:
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Copper with the Master Chef. All about the angles.If you are sitting in front of your computer screen, looking at charts, and asking yourself enough times... "how can I make money out of this?" ... this is what you're eventually going to be doing.
Make these drawings enough times and you should not only expect to make money, but you should be annoyed if you aren't. Don't let anybody else tell you what's right and what's wrong. Look at the charts, make your own decision, then let the markets tell you if you've cracked the code.
If I was like all the other bloodsuckers, I would charge you thousands for this diagram. I should sell this as an NFT for 15$ million. It's worth far more in the right hands. If I'm a parasite, I'm the most mutually beneficial parasite you've ever been lucky enough to stumble across. Asking nothing, giving everything. I guess that's it.
Copper - SHORT; SELL it!! Long-term SHORTThis is a (very) long-term SHORT!
The long-term picture - the Monthly;
long on the copper bullish cycle that started in Nov, 2020 HG copper had started its bullish cycle after the disclosure of the USA presidential elections, as Joe Biden the current president announced the 1.9 Trillion fiscal stimulus program which tends to recover the American economy that suffered badly since April 2020, that also stimulated the industrial commodities as investors biding on the upcoming recovery, briefly HGC started cyclical wave 5 that tends to target 4.60-4.65 levels.
COOPER short limit entryShort limit entry 4,02
SL 4,20
PT 3,66
BE 3,80
RRR 2:1
under POC, low volume area
COMEX:HG1!
