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Weekly copper market review 12/21/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.6320 per pound. Copper prices were at highs not seen since February 2013. Speculative trading is still pushing copper prices, however, net positions in the net commitments of COT traders, after exceeding 80K for the first time, fell slightly last week to 72.12K. Copper stocks are historically low at 269453 MT, a drop of more than 10% in one week and 16% in December. As can be seen on the stock chart below, total stocks of the red metal are at historically low levels not seen in the last 5 years. China, the main consumer of copper, is in a phase of accelerated growth, with a recovery in the electronics and automotive exporting sector which has boosted demand for industrial metals. Figures released last week show that in November the Chinese economy continued to accelerate, a process driven by the recovery in domestic and external demand. Industrial production increased by 7%, the highest rate in 20 months, and investment is supported by government infrastructure programs. Expectations suggest that credit growth and stimulus will continue in 2021, the year for which the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 8.1%. On the international front, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell announced Sunday evening that a $900 billion deal would be reached. The Fed said its purchases of securities would continue at the current rate of $120 billion per month until substantial additional progress has been made. The brexit saga continues, with the European Parliament's Sunday night deadline for a deal passed, but negotiations will continue. No one seems to want to take responsibility for a possible failure. After Pfizer, the FDA also approved Moderna's vaccine. As far as the pandemic is concerned, the vaccination campaign has started in the United States. The new strain of coronavirus detected in Great Britain worries, it would be 70% more contagious. The global death toll is rising, we have just passed 76 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.692 million deaths. The United States is still the most affected country, with 317,000 deaths and more than 17 million cases. The Dollar fell last week, with the DXY closing lower at 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. ECONOMIC RESULTS - On Monday, industrial production in the Euro zone came out at +2.1% compared to +0.1% the previous month. - On Tuesday, industrial production was +7.0% compared to +6.9% in the previous month. The Chinese unemployment rate was 5.2%. US industrial production was 0.4% compared to 0.9% the previous month, and the New York FED manufacturing index was down 4.90 compared to 6.30 in October. - On Wednesday, manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone rose to 55.5% from 53 the previous month. U.S. retail sales declined to -0.9% from -0.1% in October. U.S. manufacturing PMIs were 56.5 compared with 56.7 the previous month. - On Thursday, inflation in the Euro zone came out at -0.3% in November as expected. U.S. building permits surprise positively up to 1.639M, U.S. unemployment registrations disappoint at 885K, and the Philadelphia FED manufacturing index falls sharply to 11.1 from 26.3 the previous month. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 123400 MT from 146325 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 74222 MT from 82092 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 71831 MT for 72520 the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 269453 MT compared to 300937 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week down to 89.924, hitting a 2 1/2 year low. The long-term trend is still bearish. The possibilities of reaching an agreement on a contingency plan to support the U.S. economy, as well as the possibility of an economic recovery, are expected to continue. Disappointing economic results weighed on the currency last week. Indeed, U.S. Retail Sales down to -0.9% and Unemployment Claims up to 885K disappointed. A low dollar is generally favorable for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is down this week to 72.12 K instead of 80.039 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Copper HGCopper HG1! - Buy - H4 ChartCopper HGCopper HG1! - Buy - H4 Chart HGCopper HG1! Continues upward Please support the idea with a Like 👍 Follow me to receive updates of this analysis, plus new ideas ✅ Thank you for your support 😊 Wishing you successful trading 🙏 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🔺 Disclaimer! The content of this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice. 🔺 It is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions. 🔺 You must do your own research to create your own trading plan for the market. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COMEX:HG1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn5418842
Weekly copper market review 12/14/2020.Support us by consulting our free magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.528 per pound. Speculative trading is pushing copper prices up, with net positions of COT commitments of traders exceeding 80K for the 1st time, they are on historical highs. Copper stocks are historically low at 300937 MT and are about to fall below the 300 mark which represents less than 5 days of world consumption. China, the main consumer of copper, is in a phase of accelerated growth, with a recovery in the electronics and automotive export sector which has stimulated demand for industrial metals. In November, refined copper imports fell for the second consecutive time, down 9.2% compared to October. Imports of copper concentrates increased by 8.3% in November. China's exports grew by 21.1% in November, far exceeding the expected 12%. Internationally, the ECB increased its asset buyback program by 500 billion, the US support plan is still slow to come, and a brexit no-deal is increasingly likely. The FDA in turn is approving the use of Pfizer's vaccine, and vaccination begins this week in the US. In terms of the pandemic update, we have just surpassed 72 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.607 million deaths. The U.S. is still the most affected country, and will approach and surpass the 300,000 mark in deaths and more than 16 million cases. The Dollar consolidated last week as the DXY closed higher at 90.976, with the long-term trend still bearish. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week, Chinese exports grew by 21.1% in November and imports declined by 4.5%. Euro-zone GDP was up 12.5% in Q3, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 54.4 from an expected 37.5. US unemployment registrations disappointed at 853K for 725K expected. - On Monday, industrial production in the Euro zone came out at +2.1% compared to +0.1% the previous month. - On Tuesday, industrial production was +7.0% compared to +6.9% in the previous month. The Chinese unemployment rate was 5.2%. US industrial production was 0.4% compared to 0.9% the previous month, and the New York FED manufacturing index was down 4.90 compared to 6.30 in October. - Wednesday, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Manufacturing PMI. - Thursday, Euro-zone inflation, U.S. building permits, U.S. unemployment registrations, and Philadelphia FED manufacturing index. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 146325 MT from last week's 149675 MT. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange were down to 82092 MT from 97783 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 72520 MT for 73233 the previous week. - Total copper stocks were down to 300937 MT compared to 320691 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a basket of foreign currencies closed last week up at 90.976, although the long-term trend is still bearish. The DXY consolidated last week. The ECB increased its asset repurchase program by $500 billion, and, the U.S. support plan is still lagging behind, still failing to agree on emergency aid of just over $900 billion. The dollar has also strengthened against the pound sterling, on an increasingly likely no-deal, as the disagreements seem so deep. A low dollar is generally favorable to dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 80.039 K instead of 79.856 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
$1 Copper by 2025Time Fib plus a descending triangle plus some economics about commodity prices and the deflationary dollar for the next 2 years; all that says that copper is dropping by 43% from its current price at $2.5 per pound, reaching $1.42 by the end of 2022. This breaks the descending triangle downward setting a target of $0.83. It sounds crazy, but I'm simply looking at the chart. The Fib zones time the reversal to take place in late 2024 early 2025 where the nearest resistance is the $1.25 to $1.42 range.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by TechNerdOmar
1
Weekly copper market review 12/07/2020.Support us by consulting our free daily magazines with color stock charts and weather maps on our commodity-market-review.com website. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COPPER Last week, COMEX copper futures closed higher at $3.5245 per pound. Speculative trading is pushing copper prices higher, as net positions of the net commitments of traders at +79K are at historical highs. Copper stocks are historically low at 320691 MT. China, in November, developed at the fastest pace in 10 years, exceeding expectations. Currently, the manufacturing sector in the country is the main driver of copper demand worldwide. The increase in appliance sales, caused by the containment and rebound in car and truck production, has reactivated the manufacturing sector and led to the consumption of industrial metals such as steel, copper and aluminum. The relative scarcity of the red metal has pushed industrialists to accumulate copper stocks to face a possible 2nd wave in producing countries such as Chile or Peru. Caixin's manufacturing PMIs stood at 54.9 in November, exceeding expectations and expanding for the 7th consecutive month. Internationally, last week was marked by the sharp fall of the dollar. The DXY, after breaking through the resistance of the 92, is moving towards the 90's, and the Euro approached $1.22 after disappointing US empoys figures. Hopes for a vaccine, the FED reaffirming that the priority remains to support the economy, and the joint Democratic and Republican proposal for a $908 billion emergency plan are driving equity markets. Curiously, commodities as a whole did not benefit from the dollar's decline. Discussions between the British and the Europeans continue as the December 31 deadline approaches in the hope of reaching a post-brexit trade agreement. Regarding the pandemic update, we have just passed the 67 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.537 million deaths. The United States continues to be the most affected country with more than 282,000 deaths and more than 14.7 million cases. Italy has passed the 60,000 death mark, and the United States is facing a spectacular rebound of the epidemic with more than 230,000 cases in 24 hours on Saturday. The United Kingdom, the first country to authorize Pfizer vaccine, begins vaccination on Tuesday. ECONOMIC RESULTS - Last week was rich in results. Manufacturing PMIs all showed an increase, in China they stood at 52.1 in November against 51.4 in October, in the Euro zone they stood at 53.8 in November against 53.6 in October, in the US they rose to 56.7 in November against 53.4 in October. US job creation disappointed, falling to 245K against 610K the previous month. Orders to US industry were up 1.0% compared to 1.3% in October. - On Monday, Chinese exports rose by 21.1% in November and imports fell by 4.5%. - Tuesday, GDP in the Euro zone, the ZEW index of economic sentiment. - Wednesday, inflation and producer prices in China. - Thursday, inflation and U.S. unemployment registrations. - Friday, U.S. producer prices and Michigan consumer confidence index. CERTIFIED COPPER STOCKS - London Stock Exchange copper stocks are down to 149675 MT from 150775 MT last week. - Copper stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose to 97783 MT from 92912 MT the previous week. - Copper stocks on the New York Stock Exchange were down to 73233 MT for 74019 the previous week. - Total copper inventories increased to 320691 MT compared to 317706 MT the previous week. Total copper stocks are below the five-year average. THE DOLLAR The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 90.701, and the trend is still bearish. The DXY after breaking the 92 resistance, plunged last week and is on its way to the 90. The Euro rose as high as 1.2175 on Friday after very disappointing U.S. employment figures. As a backdrop, Powell said the priority remains to support the economy, and Democrats and Republicans are working together on a $908 billion emergency support proposal as a first step. For later, once the Joe biden administration is in place, work for a more substantial plan. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. A low dollar is generally good for dollar-denominated commodity markets. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS The weekly COT (Commitments of Traders) report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows all the positions opened by all market participants. The COT report is published on Friday, and reflects the open positions on Tuesday of the same week. It shows the position of commercial traders (producers, commodity buyers, ...) but also non-commercial (speculators). The net positions of speculators on the futures markets are particularly interesting to observe. The net speculative position on the copper futures markets is up this week to 79.856 K instead of 73.771 K.
COMEX:HG1!
by Commodity-market-review
Elliott Wave view: Copper (HG) Still Has Further UpsideShort term Elliott Wave view in Copper (HG) suggests that the dips to 3.11 on November 11 ended wave ((ii)). The metal has resumed higher and ended wave ((iii)) at 3.52. Internal of wave ((iii)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave i ended at 3.26 and pullback in wave ii ended at 3.169. The metal resumed higher in wave iii towards 3.3, and pullback in wave iv ended at 3.235. Final leg higher in wave v ended at 3.33. This completed wave (i) in higher degree. The metal then pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 3.28. Up from there, wave (iii) ended at 3.50 with internal also as a 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. From there, dips to wave (iv) ended at 3.43, and wave (v) completed at 3.52. This 5 waves move higher ended cycle from November 11 low in wave ((iii)). The metal then pullback in 3 swing (w)-(x)-(y) which found buyers at the blue box equal leg area. Wave ((iv)) is proposed complete at 3.439 and copper has turned higher from the blue box. It now needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 3.50 to avoid a double correction. As far as wave ((ii)) pivot at 3.11 stays intact, dips should continue to find support in 3, 7 or 11 swing for more upside.
COMEX:HG1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast