Copper looks like going to fall !!!Trendline has been broken and retest is done, what do you think? comment your ideas in comment. thanks
QC1! trade ideas
COPPER Two year Triangle may finally break.Copper (XCUUSD) is trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 07 2022 High. The price is currently above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), supported twice by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1D RSI shows that we may be replicating the July 15 - September 20 2022 fractal.
If the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle, then based on the fractal should target initially the 1.5 Fibonacci extension level at 4.1800.
As long as it closes below the Lower Highs, we will sell and target the 3.6870 Support.
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Copper’s Strategic BreakoutWe are observing an intriguing shift in the copper market that might offer a potentially profitable trading opportunity. On the daily timeframe, copper prices are manifesting a noteworthy breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern, an event typically associated with substantial price movements.
Moreover, on the hourly timeframe, the metal is crafting a fresh local top, a sign of potential bullish momentum. A strong confirmation signal for this prospective uptrend would be an hourly close above the previous peak at 3.9320.
Assuming this bullish scenario comes to fruition, a strategic long position is recommended, with a Stop Loss set below the recent local low at 3.8765 to manage potential downside risk. We suggest two possible Take Profit targets based on Fibonacci extensions of the previous impulse waves and the range of the symmetrical triangle pattern:
The first target is at 4.0495, aligning with 1:1 and 1:1.618 Fibonacci extensions. This objective yields a favorable 1.5 risk to reward ratio.
The second, more aspirational target is set at 4.2360, matching the range of the symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart, presenting an attractive risk to reward ratio of 4.5.
Please, consider this analysis as part of your investment strategy, yet remember that trading always involves risks and it is crucial to manage them appropriately.
Copper - (continued) SHORT; for now ...I fail to grasp the general consensus where the overall impression seems to be that "bad technicals" but "a very pretty fundamental picture"?
LME stocks jumped +45% just since January alone! - How is that a "good" fundamental picture? (I must be missing something, especially with China not coming back, in any way resembling past demand.)
Long(er) term, one could make a case, perhaps, but only by disregarding the hole that the decline of Chinese demand will poke into global fundamentals.
On the other hand, Copper/Gold ratio looks rather bullish.
Here is a close-up;
As for the Copper/Gold Ratio;
That is definitely what bullish looks like!
Stay SHORT for now (... and then make a lot of money trading it from under 3.50 ;-)
Copper Conundrum: Diverging Indicators Point to More DownsideThe last time we looked at copper was last October, and the trade played out nicely in our favor. Much has happened since then and we think another opportunity lies on the horizon now.
Revisiting the same analysis now we observe the following…
China, being the largest copper buyer, its currency pair CNHUSD traditionally shares a high correlation with copper. However, a divergence has emerged since May 2023.
Moreover, copper's wide usage in manufacturing - from batteries to appliances and industrial machinery - makes China's import and export figures a good indicator of global economic health. These figures currently paint a gloomy picture, with YOY Exports & Imports pointing lower. Again, we notice a divergence between copper prices and these economic numbers.
The Gold/Copper ratio, usually confined within a certain range, has recently tried to break higher. Despite facing resistance, the movement may still have momentum. Previous breaks upward have proven to be quite rapid. One way this could play out is if copper trades lower, the Gold/Copper ratio tends to trend higher.
From a price action perspective, copper seems to be breaking out from a seven-month bull flag, inching towards the 4.00 price level. However, the significant resistance at 4.00 casts doubts on the breakout's success.
Further fuelling this doubt is the emergence of a Simple Moving Average (SMA) death cross on the daily timeframe.
On a shorter timeframe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests slight overselling, while the overall price structure is encapsulated in a symmetrical triangle.
Summing up, we foresee short-term downside for copper due to diverging macro factors from copper’s price and a downward trend in the dollar. Moreover, price action suggests overbought levels and looming resistance. CME has the Full-sized Copper Contract or the Micro Copper Futures which we can use to express this view, taking a short position at the current level of 3.904, stop loss at 4.10 and take profit at 3.55 the next level of support and subsequently 3.30 if the symmetrical triangle breakout happens. Each $0.0005 price move in copper per pound is equal to $1.25 for the micro copper futures and $12.50 for the full-sized copper futures.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Reference:
www.cmegroup.com
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Copper looking good to go! Copper getting ready to breakout, first target is 1.7 to 1
I will look to leverage with miners BHP ABX
MCX COPPER FUTURES 30MINS CHARTMCX COPPER FUTURES 30MINS CHART
Cmp 719 Target 737 Stoploss 710
Breakout in place.
Only an observation & not any suggestion.
Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open12/07US markets had another rally ahead of the all important CPI data release prior to the US open. It seems that markets have dragged in bulls recently which sets up for an interesting market if the CPI figure comes out stronger than expected...meaning sticky inflation and further rate rises. US Bond yields held steady while the USD swung between gains and losses in a holding pattern prior to the data release.
Expecting a stronger open in Asia with the ASX200 to open up 30 pts, the Nikkei to open up 80 pts and Hang Seng to open up 90 pts also.
Traders are focused on the US CPI data release and what that means to inflation and rate rises. Hopes will be that we are at the end of the rate rise cycle which to me means a slowing global economy. Also on the cards will be coming US earnings.
Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
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Copper longTrade: Buy at 3.7645 or lower
Stop: 1.2755
Notes: China may be bottoming
The model:
The Ingenuity Trading Model is a Geometric Markov Model with specific inputs related to Price, Time, Volume , and Volatility. The model attempts to predict local minimums and maximums in price on a daily and weekly basis. A fancy way of saying a trading system that detects specific patterns in price, time, volume, and volatility and indicates whether to buy or sell.
On winning trades after 1 day take at least 1/2 of the position off
Copper on weak chinaand weak america.
looks like a double top m shape to me. time will tell, not that im trading this, but its moves give interesting perspective into the economy.
HG1! Is Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for HG1!.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 3.729.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 3.771 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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HG1! Massive Long! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
I analysed this chart on HG1!, and concluded the following:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 3.7005
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Goal - 3.7740
My Stop Loss - 3.6580
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Copper: the irreplaceable raw material for renewable energyCopper is one of the few elements that has been used by humans for over 10,000 years. Archaeological evidence suggests that copper was first discovered and utilised by ancient civilisations as early as 9000 BCE1. Its malleability, durability, and excellent conductivity made it highly prized for tools, weapons, and decorative objects. Copper's rich history as a valuable and versatile metal showcases its enduring significance and timeless appeal.
Today, copper’s importance in the global economy continues to rise, especially given the boom in renewable energy. Copper is an excellent conductor of electricity, making it an ideal material for renewable energy systems. Its high electrical conductivity allows for efficient energy transfer, minimising power losses during transmission and distribution. Moreover, copper's unparalleled malleability and ductility, which refer to its ability to be easily shaped and stretched without breaking, make it incredibly challenging to substitute with other materials.
High intensity in wind and solar
Today, wind and solar are among the most mainstream forms of renewable energy. The figure below shows how much more copper is required when generating power from offshore wind (wind turbines in the seas), onshore wind (wind turbines on land), and solar photovoltaic (PV) compared to fossil fuels like coal and natural gas.
Copper is extensively used in wind turbines. It is employed in generator coils, transformers, and electrical cables. The strong magnetic properties of copper enable efficient power generation and ensure reliable performance in wind turbine systems. Copper is also a crucial element in solar panels. It is used in the wiring, busbars2, and connectors within the panels. Copper's excellent electrical conductivity facilitates the efficient conversion of sunlight into electricity and supports the overall performance of solar energy systems.
For the power generated from renewables to ultimately be deployed effectively, electrical grid infrastructure and energy storage are also needed. Copper, once again, is integral in building both. In energy storage systems, which complement renewables by storing energy for days when the wind isn’t blowing or the sun isn’t shining, copper is used in batteries and supercapacitors3. It is utilised in the conductive components, such as electrodes and current collectors, enhancing the efficiency and durability of energy storage devices. In electrical grid infrastructure, copper is extensively used in power cables, transformers, and distribution systems, ensuring the reliable transmission of electricity from renewable sources to end consumers.
Doing it sustainably
Copper is deemed to have infinite recyclability. This means that the metal does not lose any of its properties and can be used again and again. Recycled copper requires 85% less energy than primary production4. This highlights the huge environmental benefit of recycling the commodity.
Today, roughly a third of total copper production comes from recycling. This means that, as we scale up renewable energy, we must also bolster the recycling industry. Copper’s infinite recyclability will make that a fruitful endeavour.
The irreplaceable metal
In conclusion, copper stands as an irreplaceable raw material for renewable energy. Its exceptional electrical conductivity, second only to silver, positions copper as the ideal choice for efficient energy transfer in wind turbines, solar panels, energy storage systems, and electrical grid infrastructure. As the world embraces renewable energy on a larger scale, the demand for copper will continue to grow. And given its infinite recyclability, if the world deploys its resources appropriately, this growth can be sustainable.
Sources
1 Copper Development Association.
2 A busbar is a rigid conductor used for connecting several circuits.
3 Supercapacitor is an electronic device that store large amount of electric charge.
4 Copper Alliance.
COPPER: Best sell signal on a 1 month basis.Copper hit the top of the Channel Down pattern that started in mid January and got rejected straight away. The 1D time frame already turned neutral (RSI = 51.361, MACD = 0.023, ADX = 28.747) and if the price crosses under the 1D MA50 and MA200, it will give a confirmed sell continuation signal.
First target is the S1 (TP1 = 3.5525) and second near the S2 (TP2 = 3.3750). A 1D RSI Double Bottom inside its S1 support, will be the first buy signal.
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Copper remains positive.XCUUSD - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 3.851 (stop at 3.811)
Our short term bias remains positive.
The sequence for trading is higher highs and lows.
A lower correction is expected.
We look to buy dips.
50 4hour EMA is at 3.846.
Our profit targets will be 3.951 and 3.971
Resistance: 3.900 / 3.914 / 3.930
Support: 3.875 / 3.860 / 3.835
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HG1! The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear followers ,
I analysed this chart on HG1!, and concluded the following:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 3.8850
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Target - 3.8115
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Get to the copper! 🐻🚁The industrial metals market often goes unnoticed by many traders, although some excellent trading opportunities are often to be found here. And with that, we say, "Get to the copper!" For things should get moving here quite soon. The completion of wave (ii) in magenta should be imminent here, the copper price should therefore initiate a bearish trend reversal in our target zone (highlighted in blue) and then indulge in extended sell-offs. Thus, depositing short positions between $3.89 and 3.96 should present an excellent opportunity to profit from the lift-off of the bearish chopper - which is, of course, headed south. We anticipate a significant sell-off before wave (iii) in magenta will at some later point be completed, at which point the bulls are expected to report back.
Looking for down on COPPER FridayI'm looking for copper to retract at least part of Thursday's upmove for the following reasons:
1. DXY (Dollar Index) delivered an inefficiency yesterday and looks to be turning higher to go redeliver some 1hr - 4hr inefficiencies higher.
2. Copper delivered a weekly inefficiency yesterday and traded above previous day's high in the Asian session, which is a liquidity signature.
3. Now, Copper just broke the low that took us to the high above PDH, so I'm looking for a downmove on copper.
ICT
Copper (HG) Low Likely in Place with 5 Waves RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in Copper (HG) suggests the metal ended wave ((2)) pullback at 3.54. The metal has turned higher in wave ((3)). Rally from wave ((2)) low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((2)), wave (i) ended at 3.618 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 3.578. The metal extends higher in wave (iii) towards 3.694 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 3.667. Copper then extends higher again in wave (v) towards 3.711 which completes wave ((i)).
The metal then corrected in wave ((ii)) towards 3.622 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 3.627, wave (b) ended at 3.694, and wave (c) lower ended at 3.622. This completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The metal then extends higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 3.656 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 3.624. The metal rallies higher in wave (iii) towards 3.7315 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 3.676. The metal extends higher again in wave (v) towards 3.789 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 3.686. Wave ((v)) higher unfolded as a diagonal and ended at 3.833. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. Wave 2 pullback is in progress now as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 3.735. While rally in wave ((b)) fails below 3.833, expect the metal to turn lower in wave ((c)) to complete wave 2. As far as pivot at 3.54 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Mysterious Copperfor every 1 year of growth 1 year of correction phase exists
for the previous 2 years of growth there may lie 4 years of correction phase.
