2024-08-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Gold - The triangle broke above but bears sold it hard for a retest of the minor bull trend line at 2530. We are now in a nested wedge and the bigger but broader bull channel. Market is mostly moving sideways though. Expecting for the wedge to break tomorrow and it could go either way.
gold
comment: Globex session sold off for 24 points before EU opened. Market went mostly sideways afterwards but stayed below the 1h ema. I consider the triangle broken since we made a higher high again but it does not matter. Now its an ascending triangle and you trade them the same. Advice? Wait for the breakout and do not lose money in trading ranges unless you are super profitable trading them.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2500 - 2570
bull case: Bulls bought the bull trend line and kept it above 2530, which is still max bullishness. No more reading into this trading range at the highs. BTFD is going strong, don’t look for shorts.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Bears trying but failing. Best they can hope for is the market to continue to go sideways until it’s more neutral.
Invalidation is above 2570.
short term: Neutral between 2530-2570, bullish above and bearish below.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T. —unchanged for many months. Will do on update next weekend.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 9 + 13 but only for a scalp. If you weren’t short during Globex, best not to trade afterwards.