#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls see the green support line and want to keep it support and keep the market above 2300/2320. They stalled the market long enough that not enough bears want to push their luck, selling the lows here. They also managed to print 2 bars above the daily ema, which makes the market more neutral.
comment: Keeping this very short bc the tl;dr almost covered it all. Trading range and a descending triangle. Huge support 2300 and until either that or the upper triangle bear line is broken, it’s as neutral as it gets. Buy low, sell high and scalp. 55/45 imo that bears get a breakout below but do you really want to bet on those odds? I don’t.
current market cycle: trading range until 2300 or 2385 is broken.
key levels: 2300 - 2385 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play
bull case: Bulls keeping it above support but can not print consecutive daily closes above the daily 20ema. Will probably see a breakout over the next 1-2 weeks.
Invalidation is below 2300.
bear case: Bears need a strong break below 2300, that’s it.
Invalidation is above 2385.
outlook last week:
“short term: Play the triangle if the support holds. ”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2331 and now we are at 2339. Triangle held. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral. Play the triangle.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged
current swing trade: None and won’t enter. Just scalps for me.
Chart update: Made the support more obvious.
