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Cotton vs US DollarCC

Cotton vs US Dollar

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COTTON trade ideas

"COTTON" Commodities CFD Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑💰💸✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "COTTON" Commodities CFD market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (66.000) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. 📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low or high level Using the 3H timeframe (64.200) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 68.500 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Read the Fundamentals analysis, Macro Economics, COT Report, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Seasonal Factors, Future Trend Move: 🧵COTTON🧵 Commodities CFD Market is currently experiencing a Bullish trend., driven by several key factors. ⭐☀🌟Fundamental Analysis⭐☀🌟 Fundamental analysis examines supply, demand, and external influences on cotton: Supply Factors: Weather: Major producers like the US, China, and Brazil drive supply. As of March 11, 2025, assume neutral weather conditions (no major droughts or floods reported). USDA Crop Progress reports might show stable planting for the 2025/26 season in the Northern Hemisphere, with Southern Hemisphere harvests ongoing. Crop Yields: Global production might be around 115-120 million bales, per historical USDA WASDE averages. Stable yields suggest no immediate supply shock. Production Costs: Rising energy and fertilizer prices (e.g., $70-80/barrel oil, ammonia costs up 10% YoY) could pressure margins, though subsidies mitigate this. Inventory Levels: Global stocks-to-use ratio might be 70-75%, with US carryover at 3-4 million bales (USDA estimate). Moderate stocks suggest balanced supply. Demand Factors: Textile Industry: Demand from the US, Europe, and Southeast Asia remains steady, driven by apparel and industrial uses. A hypothetical 2-3% demand growth aligns with global economic recovery. Export Markets: US exports to China and Southeast Asia are key. No major trade disruptions are assumed, though China’s synthetic shift might cap demand. Substitution: Polyester competition (cheaper at $1.20/lb vs. cotton at ~$0.65/lb) could limit upside. Government Policies: US Farm Bill subsidies and China’s stockpiling policies stabilize supply. No significant changes are assumed for March 2025. Conclusion: Neutral fundamentals with balanced supply/demand. Slight bullish tilt if demand outpaces expectations. ⭐☀🌟Macroeconomic Factors⭐☀🌟 Macroeconomic conditions affect cotton globally: Interest Rates: Assume US Federal Reserve rates at 4-4.5% (post-2024 normalization). Moderate borrowing costs support farmers, but higher rates strengthen the USD, reducing export competitiveness. Inflation: Global inflation at 3-4% (World Bank estimates) raises input costs (e.g., fuel, labor), potentially bearish if not passed to prices. USD Strength: USD Index at 105-110 (hypothetical) makes US cotton pricier abroad, a bearish factor for export-driven markets. Global Growth: US GDP growth at 2-2.5%, China at 5-6% (IMF projections) supports textile demand, mildly bullish. Energy Prices: Oil at $70-80/barrel (stable per OPEC outlook) keeps synthetics competitive, capping cotton’s upside. Conclusion: Mixed macro outlook—growth supports demand (bullish), but USD strength and inflation lean bearish. ⭐☀🌟COT Data Latest⭐☀🌟 The Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the CFTC (hypothetical for March 7, 2025, released March 11) tracks futures positions: Commercial Hedgers: Net short 50,000 contracts (producers locking in prices), down from 60,000 prior week, suggesting less hedging pressure. Large Speculators: Net long 30,000 contracts (up from 25,000), indicating growing bullish bets. Small Traders: Net long 5,000 contracts, steady. Open Interest: 220,000 contracts, up 5%, showing increased market participation. Conclusion: Speculative buying (bullish signal) outweighs commercial selling, suggesting short-term upward momentum. ⭐☀🌟Intermarket Analysis⭐☀🌟 Intermarket relationships influence cotton: Crude Oil: Stable at $70-80/barrel correlates with synthetic fiber costs. No sharp oil rally, so cotton retains competitiveness. USD: Stronger USD (105-110) pressures export commodities like cotton, bearish. Grains (Corn/Soy): Corn at $4.50/bushel, soybeans at $10/bushel (hypothetical). Stable grain prices suggest no major acreage shift from cotton, neutral. Stock Markets: S&P 500 at 5,500 (assumed) reflects economic optimism, supporting textile demand (bullish). Bonds: 10-year Treasury yield at 4% aligns with steady rates, neutral. Conclusion: Bullish stock market and stable grains support cotton, but USD strength is a headwind. Mildly bullish overall. ⭐☀🌟Technical Factors⭐☀🌟 Technical analysis for cotton futures (price 64.600 cents/lb): Trend: 50-day MA (64.00) crossed above 200-day MA (63.50) in Feb 2025, signaling a bullish trend. Support/Resistance: Support at 63.00 (recent low), resistance at 66.00 (Jan 2025 high). RSI: 55 (neutral, not overbought), room for upside. MACD: Positive crossover (bullish momentum) since early March. Volume: Rising with price, confirming trend strength. Conclusion: Bullish technicals with potential to test 66.00 if momentum holds. ⭐☀🌟Sentiment Factors⭐☀🌟 Market sentiment: News Flow: Hypothetical reports of steady planting and Chinese demand lift sentiment (bullish). Trader Chatter: Social media posts (searched March 11, 2025) show optimism about textile recovery, though some cite USD risks. Analyst Views: CME Group commentary (assumed) leans bullish on demand, neutral on supply. Conclusion: Positive sentiment supports a bullish bias, tempered by macro concerns. ⭐☀🌟Seasonal Factors⭐☀🌟 Cotton’s seasonal patterns: March Timing: Northern Hemisphere planting begins (US, China), while Southern Hemisphere harvests peak (Brazil, Australia). Prices often firm up pre-planting due to supply uncertainty. Historical Data: March-April typically sees a 2-5% price rise (CME Group data), favoring bulls. Conclusion: Seasonal strength leans bullish for short-term gains. ⭐☀🌟Next Trend Move and Future Trend Prediction⭐☀🌟 Predicted trends with targets: Short-Term: Bullish, targeting 66-68. Medium-Term: Bullish, targeting 70-72. Long-Term: Bullish, targeting 80-85. ⭐☀🌟Overall Summary Outlook⭐☀🌟 Current Price: 64.600 Outlook: Long/Bullish (Short-Term), Neutral (Medium/Long-Term) Summary: Fundamentals show balance, but speculative buying (COT), technical strength, and seasonal factors favor a near-term rally to 66.00-67.00. Macro headwinds (USD, inflation) and intermarket pressures could cap gains beyond spring, with a broader range of 62.00-70.00 likely by year-end. No major bearish triggers unless supply surges or demand falters. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
PLong
by Thief_Trader
COTTON Cash CFD Commodities Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the COTTON Cash CFD Commodities Market market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise placing Place Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at the recent / nearest low level Using the 2H timeframe (65.700) swing trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 1st Target - 68.000 (or) Escape Before the Target Final Target - 71.000 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: COTTON Cash CFD Commodities Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 🌳Fundamental Analysis Supply and Demand: Global cotton production is expected to decline by 1.5% in 2024-25, while consumption is forecasted to increase by 2.5%. Weather Conditions: Favorable weather in major cotton-producing countries, such as the US, China, and India, may support production. 🌳Macroeconomic Analysis Global Economic Growth: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth to slow down to 3.2% in 2024, which may impact cotton demand. Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade tensions between the US and China may influence cotton trade and prices. 🌳COT Data Analysis Institutional Traders: 55% long, 45% short Large Speculators: 52% long, 48% short Commercial Traders: 60% short, 40% long 🌳Market Sentimental Analysis Market Sentiment: 45% bullish, 55% bearish Trader Sentiment: 42% long, 58% short Option Skew: 25-delta put option skew at 12.5 🌳Positioning Data Analysis Bullish Trend: 40% likely. Bearish Trend: 60% likely. Neutral Trend: 10% likely. 🌳Overall Outlook However, some analysts predict a bullish continuation, targeting 71.000. The market's technical outlook points to a buildup of bearish momentum as prices break below the 50-day moving average. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
PLong
by Thief_Trader
Cotton Cash Contract - Rectangle PatternCommodity: Cotton Cash Contract Introduction: Hello everyone! Today, we'll be analyzing the Cotton Cash Contract on the daily scale traded on Pepperstone. After a clear downward trend, the contract seems to have entered a consolidation phase, possibly forming a rectangle pattern. Analysis: The rectangle pattern we're observing has been forming for around 196 days. The upper boundary of this pattern is approximately at $90, which has been tested three times so far. Meanwhile, the lower boundary is at around $77.50, with two touch points to date. Currently, the price hasn't managed to cross above the 200 EMA. However, if we observe a breakout above the upper boundary, it would place the price above the 200 EMA, potentially paving the way for a long entry. Upon a valid breakout, our projected price target would be $100.660, translating into a potential price rise of approximately 13%. Conclusion: The Cotton Cash Contract's technical analysis suggests a consolidation phase marked by a potential rectangle pattern. A breakout above the upper boundary might signal a shift to a bullish trend and could provide an opportunity for a long position. As always, be sure to conduct your own research and risk management before investing. Thank you for tuning into this analysis. Please like, share, and follow for more insights into the market. Happy trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh
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by KarimSubhieh
Global Cotton Market: Shrinking Stockpiles and Rising DemandHighlighting key shifts in the global cotton market, we can see declining stock levels despite increased production and consumption. As global trade patterns evolve and demand in emerging economies strengthens, cotton prices could see notable fluctuations in the months ahead. Supply and Demand Dynamics Global cotton production for the 2024/25 season is projected at 120.96 million 480-pound bales, a slight increase from the previous estimate of 120.46 million bales. This rise is largely driven by higher output in China, which offsets production declines in Pakistan and Argentina. However, despite this increase, global cotton stocks are expected to shrink, with ending stocks revised downward to 78.33 million bales. On the consumption side, demand continues to grow, particularly in textile hubs such as Bangladesh and Egypt. Consumption forecasts have been adjusted upward, with Bangladesh and Egypt leading the increase. This sustained demand suggests that even with stable production, stock levels may tighten, putting upward pressure on prices. Trade Adjustments and Price Impact The global cotton trade has also undergone some notable shifts. Export projections have been revised, with Brazil and Turkey increasing their shipments, while Australia and Egypt see declines. Meanwhile, China’s import demand has softened slightly but has been offset by rising purchases from Pakistan and Bangladesh. In the U.S. market, the cotton balance sheet remains unchanged for the 2024/25 season. The season-average upland farm price projection, however, has been revised downward to 63 cents per pound, reflecting broader global pricing trends ICEUS:CT1! . Market Outlook The overall cotton market outlook remains mixed. While consumption is growing, particularly in key textile-producing nations, production levels are keeping pace, preventing extreme supply shortages. However, with declining stock levels, any disruptions in production-whether due to weather conditions or geopolitical factors-could quickly tighten supply and support higher prices.
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by juliakhandoshko
bearish reversal pattern ### **1. Bearish Technical Indicators** - **Rising Wedge Breakdown**: chart shows a rising wedge, a bearish reversal pattern. Price has already broken below the lower trendline, signaling potential downside momentum. - **Bearish Divergence**: - The **RSI** is making lower highs while the price made higher highs → Indicates weakening buying strength. - The **MACD** also shows a bearish divergence, meaning momentum is slowing down. - **Moving Average Rejection**: The price is testing short-term moving averages (red and blue lines). If it fails to reclaim them, more downside is likely. ### **2. Fundamental & News Factors Supporting a Sell** - **Stronger U.S. Dollar**: - If the **USD is rising**, cotton (which is priced in dollars) becomes more expensive for international buyers, leading to lower demand and falling prices. - **Weak Demand from China**: - China is a major cotton importer. If their economic data (like retail sales or industrial output) is weak, it signals lower demand for cotton, pushing prices lower. - **Higher Cotton Inventories**: - If recent USDA or global reports show higher-than-expected cotton supply, that adds to selling pressure. - **Seasonal Pressure**: - Cotton prices often decline after seasonal peaks, especially if new harvests increase supply. ### **Conclusion** - **Technical Breakdown** (wedge break, bearish divergence) + - **Fundamental Pressure** (stronger USD, weaker demand, high supply) → **Bearish Outlook** If these factors continue, selling cotton could be a solid trade. Do you want to discuss potential targets or stop-loss levels? **(Not Financial Advice: Do your own research before trading.)**
PShort
by TONYMONTANA87
Cotton Supply and Demand: U.S. and Global Trends for 2025Growth in U.S. Cotton Production and Its Drivers The United States has witnessed a notable increase in cotton production over the past year, driven by favorable weather conditions, improved agricultural technologies, and higher planting intentions among farmers. U.S. cotton production is projected to rise by approximately 10% compared to the previous season. This growth reflects advancements in seed technology, enhanced irrigation practices, and increased adoption of precision agriculture techniques that maximize yield per acre. Despite these positive developments, challenges remain. Rising input costs, including fertilizer and labor expenses, continue to pressure profit margins for producers. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and fluctuating demand patterns have added complexity to the outlook for U.S. cotton growers. Global Ending Stocks and Market Implications On a global scale, ending stocks of cotton are expected to expand significantly in 2025, primarily due to robust production gains in key exporting countries such as India, Brazil, and Australia. These increases come amid relatively stable consumption levels, leading to an oversupply situation that could weigh on international prices. The USDA forecasts global cotton ending stocks to reach their highest levels since 2018, with China remaining the largest holder of reserves. This surplus poses both opportunities and risks for the U.S. cotton industry. On one hand, abundant supplies may provide buyers with greater flexibility in sourcing decisions, potentially benefiting American exporters through competitive pricing. On the other hand, excessive inventory can suppress global benchmarks, reducing revenue potential for domestic producers reliant on export markets. Decline in Exports and Domestic Market Impact A concerning trend emerging from recent data is the decline in U.S. cotton exports, which have fallen by nearly 15% year-over-year. Several factors contribute to this contraction, including intensified competition from low-cost producers, logistical bottlenecks at major ports, and shifting preferences among foreign buyers toward locally sourced alternatives. For instance, many Asian textile mills are increasingly prioritizing regional procurement strategies to reduce dependency on imported raw materials. The reduction in exports has direct implications for the domestic market, where excess supply could lead to downward pressure on local prices. To mitigate this risk, some U.S. cotton processors are exploring alternative uses for fiber, such as blending it with synthetic materials or incorporating it into non-woven applications like hygiene products and automotive components. While these efforts show promise, they represent only a partial solution to the broader structural issues facing the sector. Balancing Supply and Demand Dynamics As we move further into 2025, stakeholders across the cotton value chain must address critical questions about how best to align supply with evolving demand patterns. Policymakers might consider revisiting existing support programs to ensure they adequately address current market realities while incentivizing sustainable farming practices. Meanwhile, industry participants should focus on enhancing product differentiation and building stronger relationships with end-users to secure long-term partnerships. Ultimately, navigating the complexities of the global cotton market will require collaboration between governments, businesses, and farmers alike. By fostering innovation, promoting transparency, and embracing new business models, the U.S. cotton industry can position itself for continued success in an increasingly competitive environment. ICEUS:CT1! in.tradingview.com
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by juliakhandoshko
COTTON at Key Support - Potential Buy OpportunityFOREXCOM:COTTON has reached a critical support zone, aligning with previous price rejections and marking an area where buyers have historically regained control, leading to bullish reversals. The current market structure indicates a potential bullish reaction if the price confirms a rejection from this zone. A likely scenario could involve the formation of a bullish rejection pattern, such as a pin bar or a bullish engulfing candle, signaling a shift in market momentum. If buyers reclaim control at this level, I anticipate an upward move toward the 6,827.0 level, which is a logical profit target for the current market structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
FLong
by DanieIM
COTTON: Buy Setup at Key Support ZonePEPPERSTONE:COTTON is trading within a significant demand zone, marked by prior price reactions and a strong historical support area. This zone has previously acted as a pivot point for bullish reversals, suggesting a high-probability area for buyer interest. I anticipate that if the price confirms a rejection within this demand zone, the market may move upward toward the 6,824 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. If you have any additional insights or a different perspective, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
FLong
by DanieIM
COTTON: Potential Sell from Resistance ZoneFOREXCOM:COTTON is nearing a significant resistance level that has previously acted as a ceiling for bullish momentum. The current upward move into this zone suggests potential selling opportunities if rejection signals appear. If bearish patterns such as long upper wicks or bearish engulfing candles emerge, I anticipate a move toward 6,818.0. Traders should wait for clear confirmation before initiating short positions. If you have anything to add or a different perspective, I’d love to hear from you in the comments!
FShort
by DanieIM
Bearish Pressure Builds on Cotton: Strategic Levels to FollowCotton price is trading in a descending channel, signaling continued bearish momentum. A potential breakout below minor support suggests further downside ahead. Analysis: Current Price Action: Cotton is at 66.62, near minor support, with a potential break signaling further bearish continuation. Key Levels: Resistance at 67.80–68.00; major support around 62.00 at the channel's lower boundary. Projection: Sellers could push prices to 61.99, while a retest of 68.00 may confirm the bearish setup if rejected. Trend Outlook: The downtrend remains unless prices break above the channel resistance. Keep an eye on the evolving trade scenario.
PShort
by TrendDiva
Waiting for Cotton Futures to get out of the range.From around the beginning of November 2022, Cotton futures have been trading in a range, roughly between the 75- and 89-dollar marks. As long as the price remains in that range, we will stay neutral. Only if we see the commodity breaking through one of the sides of that range, only then we will consider the next short-term directional move. A break through the upper side of the aforementioned range would confirm a forthcoming higher high, potentially inviting more buyers into the game. Such a breakout may clear the path somewhere towards the 101 zone. Alternatively, a drop below the lower side of the range could temporarily spook the bulls from the field. Cotton might then drift to the area near the 70 hurdle, or to the 65 territory, which was last time tested in July and September of 2020. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
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by easyMarkets