BTC ....To the moon , or once more into the valley?Does the CME gap matter any longer? Weaker momentem and dropping volumes indicste this 3rd push upwards might perhaps be just retail traders drinking too much "Le Trump" at the BTC Conference.
BTCUSD27M2025 trade ideas
Don’t fall for moon boys Bitcoin is becoming overbought and still has two significant CME gaps to plunge through,
It needs to fall and strongly wick/rebound at 58k if it’s to rise to new all time highs
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin
From K1 to K3, it is strong bullish morning star pattern,
The increasing demand and bull gap verified the bull trend.
It is very likely that another bull run had started earlier.
It is a potential Wave(5) of this three year bull market.
So, I bought it here.
If the following candles close below K1,
I will try to get out of the market.
$btc short lockedin profits heading into weekend from my yesterday longs , will attempt a short here , btc didnt fill its cme gap at 62k. before ATH
Thinking about system hopping while learning to trade?Thinking about system hopping while learning to trade? Here are some of the thoughts I transmit to my students on the implications:
1️⃣Consistency is key: Jumping from one trading system to another can hinder your progress. Developing expertise requires time, practice, and disciplined execution of a proven strategy. Stick to a system that resonates with you and give it a fair chance. Trading is all about probabilities and you need to allow for enough data to let the edge manifest itself over time.
2️⃣Understanding market dynamics: Each trading system is designed to capitalize on specific market conditions. By frequently switching systems, you might miss out on understanding the nuances of different market environments and the system's effectiveness within them.
3️⃣Emotional roller-coaster: Constantly switching systems can lead to emotional turmoil and indecision. Building confidence in your trading approach takes time. Sticking to one system allows you to master it and navigate market fluctuations with a steady mindset. If you keep changing you will eventually lose your money, your mind... and your way.
4️⃣Learning curve delays: Switching systems resets your learning curve. Consistently studying and fine-tuning one strategy helps you grasp its intricacies, identify potential pitfalls, and develop strategies to overcome them. Embrace the learning process. Think about how long it takes to learn something properly. Now imagine resetting constantly back to zero.
5️⃣Data-driven evaluation: Rather than system hopping, analyze your trading performance systematically. Keep a trading journal, review your trades, identify areas for improvement, and make adjustments within your chosen system. Data-driven decisions yield better results.
Remember, finding success in trading requires discipline, persistence, and a well-executed plan. Avoid the temptation of quick fixes and stay committed to mastering your chosen system. 📈💸
47k Coming for Bitcoin?$Bitcoin #CME 1D chart;
The gap formed by the opening last week has not yet been filled. I think the rise will not start before this place is filled.
The Bat Harmonic structure, which is also formed in the current structure, points us to $ 47k levels. It is difficult to say anything clear if it will come true. However, we should not forget that this possibility also exists.
Bitcoin had received an upward reaction with the support it received with its last visit to the IMB level. However, as can be seen, it has not yet made any contact with the IMB zone at $ 47k levels.
It doesn't always touch these areas, of course, but why not:)
Giant Cup and Handle on the 1-weekGiant cup and handle pattern on the week, once the handle breaks resistance with confirmed volume the measured move price target is $120,000 USD. This will take several month to play out.
BTC Planning Short Trade From Extreme Supply Target CME GAPPlanning Swng Short Trade Above 71k on BTC and the target is atleast 56 k which is CME GAP & the neck Line of Inverse H&S
Focus List Review Longer Term 4hr Charts Going over our Focus list looking for direction and clues as to how to position ourselves for the upcoming week in our Power Portfolio.
BTC CME Futures update - July 18 2024#BTC CME futures chart is also showing that there's gap in 58,790 - 60,845 zone and it's possible that price aims to fill it!
so it's important to see price's reaction to this gap: will it support the price or not?!
it's worth mentioning that since last summer, almost all 4H gaps were filled in a short time after they were created!
So it's high possibility that the gap will be filled this time as well!
Bitcoin - Is it ready to challenge the top of its 3-year channelI will confess I am not great at Elliott wave but does anyone else view the sideways to lower price action on Bitcoin as an ‘a-b-c’ pattern?
If it is, we should see the market head back up to the recent peak at 74415 and the top of the 3-year channel at 76760
#bitcoin #elliotwave #technicalanalysis #markets
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Bitcoin CME Futures capI am seeing a cap between 57895 to 60845 in Bitcoin CME Futures chart. These caps tend to get filled or retested and it can mean that there is a pullback to happen before Bitcoin reaches to 69500.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor, and this analysis does not take into account your individual financial situation or investment objectives. Any financial decision you make based on this information are solely your responsibility. Please consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
BTCUSD GAP CMEBTC ~ CME Gap
#BTC We found the CME Gap here. Stay alert to the possibility of closing this GAP first.
BTC1! - Will the Gap Fill ???BTC1!: The Gap That Refuses to Be Ignored
A gaping hole in the Bitcoin futures chart is calling for attention.
Will the market obey its magnetic pull?
The Story of the Gap: The gap in BTC1! (Bitcoin futures) likely formed due to a significant price movement outside of regular trading hours. This could be caused by:
News Events: DONALD J TRUMP
$BTC call to the DAY!!! Called Capitulation few days ago!Not one to brag but....... TO THE DAY!!!!!!!
How long, how many months, have we been posting this chart with phase 1 and phase 2 of #BTC???
Well, first let's see where CRYPTOCAP:BTC closes today. But so far it is looking good at a close on the EXACT day of phase 2.
FYI
#bitcoin volume is pretty good and still a lot of time left untill the end of the day.
#crypto
BTC breaking out to new ATH?Hey traders!
The short scenario didn't work out, and we grew so fast that a huge gap formed in the futures market.
So, most likely, we're going to close this gap, and then the growth will continue. Given that we're in the middle of summer and approaching August, I expect we will see further growth. However, we will also need more confirmations, such as a golden cross and higher volumes, as current volumes are not very high.
Your thoughts?
Nice big gap on bitcoin Be aware there is a CME futures gap down to 58k
That’s got to be filled if btc is to carry on its upwards motion
$btc short to fill cme gap i have been stopped out on my previous 2 btc setups . so i have another try cause i respect my stoploss/ risk management(its not about being right but rather following ur plan) so btc has broken current parabolic trend i expect a retest of the breakout zone and filling of cme gap .
Chart Pattern Analysis Of Bitcoin
From K1 to K3, it is a three soldiers advancing pattern,
K3 close below the long-term uptrend line.
It is a bad signal for the long-term holders.
It seems that the following candles will keep falling to test the neck line.
The problem for the bull force is lacking enough demands.
If the following candles fall to test the 0.382-0.5Fib area to find enough demands,
The bull market will likely recover its strength.
The potential valuable area to increase long positions at about 58-54K.
I still think it is a long-term bull market,
But it must be verified by the following candles.
If the following candles close below the neck line,
the risk will sharply increase.
CME - Giant Gap OpenedWith BTC's recent pump over the weekend we have seen a gap form. We have been monitoring these gaps in this price rage as they have been extremely relevant and usually get filled.
Here is that previous post:
Of course, some major world events have lead to this increase in price most likely on the increased probability Trump becomes president, but either way this is how the chart has been painted.
If this gap is to be filled over the next couple days it is probably the last time we see $58k before the FWB:73K level is broken. Prepare for major volatility this week as BTC/ALTs begin to break their downtrends and start to establish new uptrends.
Quick Analysis on Early signs of $BTC CapitulationJust a hunch on $BTC.
We bought ETF's on this last dip. IBKR only allows 10% crypto.
May begin buying spot again as we sold close to top.
First an explanation on a 4Hr #BTC chart broken down into 3 phases
(Letters A - C)
A
The descending arrow shows $ Flow weakening. There were huge buys but sells were eating it up. That was a RED FLAG. We spoke about divergence and lessening buy volume for DAYS! Few warnings.
It was eventually followed by #bitcoin selling pressure.
-------
B
$ Flow indicator is a laggard, we keep eyes on an investment's volume on our own, visual. In this case we're looking at the #Bitcoin volume.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC had some buying but sells kept coming in.
These were likely sellouts from leverage & shorts.
Wont comment on Germany as spot #BTC is still irrelevant.
($ Flow was fine for spot and nowhere near as bad as futures, but CRYPTOCAP:BTC kept going down. Not sure what needs to be shown for people to realize that spot is IRRELEVANT until some time in the future.)
-------
C
2nd CRYPTOCAP:BTC phase is almost done.
Buys coming in and the sells are not as strong anymore.
It needs a lil more time but #BTC MAY/COULD be capitulating.
It holds 52kish weekly & monthly and we could see something nice. See the chart on #GOLD for the Cup and Handle breakout.
Have a great weekend!!!
(pls see profile for more info)
BTC is down >10%; Is this a buy-the-dip moment?Just because something is cheap does not mean it is a good buy, and just because something is expensive does not mean it is a sound investment. This investment adage applies to Bitcoin (“BTC”) ever more so than now.
Bitcoin prices dropped 11% over the past week, triggered by substantial BTC sales by the German government. Concerns loom about the forthcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which are likely to increase near term supply.
Persistent downward pressure is anticipated as further sales are pending. Yet BTC ETFs are witnessing significant inflows, indicating that investors are capitalizing on lower prices.
This paper explores a hypothetical spread trade involving short micro BTC futures and long micro-ETH futures, given the near term headwinds facing BTC and the tailwinds of ETF approval imminent for ETH.
BTC DECLINES 11% DUE TO LARGE SALES
BTC prices have plummeted by 11% since July 1st, breaching the critical USD 60,000 support level and 200-day moving average.
This sharp decline was propelled by a series of negative factors:
1) German government liquidating its BTC holdings: The German government has been liquidating its BTC holdings which were seized by the German police earlier this year. The government has already liquidated 10,000 BTC (USD 550 million at current prices) since mid-June. Crucially, the German government still holds more than 42,000 BTC (USD 2.3 billion) which could have a major impact on markets if sold. The consistent outflows to exchanges in July suggests the impact could be felt in the near term.
2) Mt. Gox begins repayments: On Friday 5/July, Mt. Gox stated that it had started transferring BTC and BCH to its customers 10 years after the exchange was hacked. More than 47,000 BTC was moved out of the Mt. Gox cold wallets on 5/July, suggesting the repayments are ongoing. Given the size of the transfer, the impact could be substantial. While the repayments will take place in a staggered manner, most customers are expected to receive their BTC within the next six months. Aggregate repayments will total up to 140,000 BTC.
3) Large Long Liquidations: Due to the sharp market moves in the past week, BTC derivatives saw large liquidations for both long and short positions. However, the overall liquidations were much larger last week. BTC longs worth more than USD 210 million were liquidated on 4/July and 5/July. The large liquidations further exacerbated the decline. Large short liquidations over the past 12 hours suggest volatility persists in both directions.
Source: CoinGlass
4) Fear Sentiment Dominates BTC: BTC’s fear and greed index has rapidly fallen to its lowest level in the past year. Over the past month, sentiment has shifted rapidly from extreme greed to fear. Heightened fear sentiment could impact the resilience of BTC holders. At the same time, periods of extreme fear can also represent buying opportunities.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear and Greed Index
Long-term BTC holders (HODLers) who have not moved their tokens in more than 1Y have been remarkably resilient so far.
Although the balance from this cohort has declined 7% YTD, it has been due to GBTC outflows, the impact of which was absorbed by other ETFs such as IBIT and FBTC.
As sentiment swings the other way given the current sharp decline, more holders could start to sell their BTC.
5) BTC ETFs saw huge inflows last week: Following a mixed June which saw outflows from BTC ETFs total USD 1 billion, ETFs are once more seeing inflows. Since 27/June, more than USD 200 million have flowed. The largest inflow was on Friday 5/July, when price fell sharply. This suggests ETF buyers are using the price corrections as an opportunity to buy more BTC. This presents a potential bullish driver for BTC if prices fall too low.
ETH RELATIVELY RESILIENT AS ETF APPROVAL BECOMES IMMINENT
Mint Finance covered the relative outperformance of ETH to BTC in a previous paper . Approval for ETH ETFs is imminent. Bloomberg analysts previously suggested that approval could come through in early July. However, due to delays and re-filings, the updated approval deadline according to Bloomberg analysts is currently 15/July.
Recent re-filings with the SEC showed minimal changes in the applications suggesting the applications are close to their final form and should be ready to trade within next few weeks.
ETH ETF approval will drive spot buying and support ETH price. This is likely to drive specific outperformance of ETH relative to BTC.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
BTC faces multiple near-term headwinds. However, a directional position may be inadvisable given the bargain buying for ETFs and the sizeable, short position liquidations as price recovered on 8/July. Volatility remains high which presents a risk to a directional short position.
Instead, investors can opt for a spread trade consisting of a bullish view on ETH and a bearish view on BTC. The spread trade effectively balances out price movements by offsetting declines in one cryptocurrency with gains in another. This approach provides investors with exposure to the relative performance of BTC and ETH.
The recent decline in price has led to a decline in the ETHBTC ratio offering a compelling entry point to benefit from the ETF approval while maintaining a bearish view on BTC.
The following hypothetical trade setup combines a long position in 19 x METN2024 and a short position in 1 x MBTN2024.
• Entry: 0.05295
• Target: 0.05750
• Stop Loss: 0.05050
• Reward to Risk: 1.75x
Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.85. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly.
Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 52,280 at a ratio of 0.05228 as of May 31).
These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs.
Liquidity on the EBR contract is lower than the MET and MBT contracts for now. Volumes in the EBR contract saw a strong uptick in June suggesting greater investor activity in these futures.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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