Dash - why I’m not long (yet)My opinion on Dash is on request, I don’t actually hold.
Measuring probability of return versus risk of loss in combination with ‘looking left’ in the charts is how I’m making money. So I'm applying the same reasoning here with Dash. Would I open a position now? No is the short answer. My reasons:
The weekly chart - the facts:
1) Last week’s candle on the above weekly chart closed under the 21-week EMA = bearish
2) MFI support trend line failed recently.
3) Price action resistance (see callout) continues to act as resistance. This resistance must break by October 19th for price action to remain inside the consolidation pattern.
The bullish:
Price action is inside a sideways consolidation pattern having corrected some 96% from the all time high. On the 3-day chart below a closer look of the consolidation tells us support is required at $61.
To trade Dash you must wait for confirmation of a breakout. Trading inside is guessing.
The 1-day chart is interesting and worth watching for the next couple of weeks. The facts:
1) RSI resistance is now broken looking for support. Something similar occurred on Ether as it floated around $230 for weeks on end.
2) RSI @ 42 - too high. If you’re looking for maximum return for minimum risk, open a position with a RSI of 30 or less.
One final observation - Price action recently enters the Gaussian strip through the green area of the band, this is nearly always a bad sign. Further downside should be expected. I've circled in orange the last time we had price action enter the strip.
