Us30Trading off the golden zone of 50% fib level , targeting buy side liquidity as first target which is the last recent high . We will monitor and see how it goes
DJI trade ideas
Large 1000 points drop - panic drop signal possible rebound dipThe Dow had a strong dip yesterday and this shows a price in exit after the Fed announcement yesterday. Due to the sudden drop that coincides with the pocket of support at 41,700-42,300, the DJIA may signal a possible rebound. Despite declining momentum, the psychological of the market and price action signal maintain the uptrend sentiment. Hence, we maintain our long-term target at 46,000
US30 4H
Dow Jones Analysis :
Introduction:
My previous analysis is here . As noted, while Nasdaq was predicted to be bullish, Dow Jones remained bearish. This contrast reflects the precision of price action analysis combined with a strong strategy that enables accurate market readings.
Main Scenarios:
The current trend remains bearish, and I expect the price to drop to 43530, where a potential reversal may occur.
Invalidation Level: A breakout and consolidation above 44500 will invalidate my analysis and signal a potential trend reversal.
Forecast and Strategy:
Short-Term Targets:
43350
42900
Upon reaching 43530, I will update the analysis to evaluate whether the market continues downward or reverses.
Closing:
As we approach the year-end, risk management becomes even more critical. Avoid entering trades without a solid plan.
For further updates, please like this analysis and share your thoughts in the comments.
Marking the end of Bull rallyCouple months ago, I published my US30 Elliott Wave analysis stating the start of upward move which we saw in the past months.
Today, I am publishing the Elliott Wave breakdown of the upward move we have seen in past months which was anticipated in previous idea.
Coming to the point, it seems the rally is about to end and the correction is about to start. I am anticipating this correction to be somewhat big according to my Weekly wave count shown in previous chart, but lets see how things go.
How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective
On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected.
This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974.
🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective
If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index.
1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20
The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends.
2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD
Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market.
3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment
The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance.
📈 Price Action Analysis
The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA.
✅ Key Takeaway
By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
DOW JONES 13-year pattern that never failed eyes $48000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the best bullish break-out signal exactly 1 year ago (December 13 2023, see chart below), as our buy entry at 36577 hit our 42900 long-term Target last October:
At that time we made a clear point why that rally 'shouldn't surprise you' and it is because of this pattern's consistency for so many years. This 1W time-frame chart shows the cyclical behavior of the index, which peaks (Sine Wave top), then pulls back and starts forming a Rising Wedge (Sine Wave bottom) and when it breaks above the Rising Wedge, is where it flashed the bullish break-out signal we got a year ago.
As you can see it then starts a gradual rise on the BB20 and completes the Cycle again (Sine Wave top) after roughly a +47% rally. The title mentions that this pattern 'never failed', practically it only broke during the COVID flash crash, which was a non-technical event than occurs once every 100 years. As you can see even the 1W MACD sequences between the cyclical patterns are identical.
As a result, our Target towards the Sine Wave peak is 48000. If this is achieved in Q2 2025, based on Dow's current Channel Up (dashed), then we expect the index to remain on those high levels but turn more neutral sideways towards the end of 2025 and then eventual start of the new Bear Phase.
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US30 Mid Week Consideration 👀👉 The markets could move in any direction today. Over the past three months, since the Bank of Japan rate hike, we’ve been witnessing aggressive liquidity runs and significant, uneven reversals, particularly on Wednesdays. This midweek phenomenon has caught many traders off guard, making it challenging to adapt. It appears to reflect adjustments in the market algorithms targeting liquidity.
For this reason, I’m sitting out of the New York session today. It’s worth emphasizing that staying out of the market can be just as valuable as posting or executing a trade idea. If you have time, I encourage you to review past charts and observe this recurring Wednesday or midweek reversal phenomenon.
Stay vigilant and know when to step aside. Reducing the frequency of trades is as important as placing them. Focus on quality setups and recognize when the best move is no move at all. While this isn’t financial advice, it’s a practical observation that could prove useful.
Trade smart, and let patience guide you.
US Index (US30) – Daily Time Frame AnalysisUS Index (US30) – Daily Time Frame Analysis
Overview:
Today, let’s analyze the US Index (US30) on the daily time frame. Over the past several days, spanning more than a week, the trend has been distinctly bearish.
Key Observation:
The price is now nearing a significant key level in the range of 43,200–43,300. This area could act as a strong support zone, offering a potential opportunity for a long trade.
Trade Idea:
Entry Zone: 43,200–43,300
Monitor this range closely.
Look for bullish confirmation signals, such as wick rejections, bullish engulfing candles, or other reversal patterns before entering a trade.
Potential Target:
If the setup aligns, the trade could aim for the previous week’s high.
Keep in mind this move could take up to a week to materialize, but the potential gain from this trade could be significant.
Important Reminders:
Wait for Confirmation: Ensure a clear rejection or reaction at the key level before executing the trade.
Focus on Risk Management: Safeguarding your capital is crucial. Avoid impulsive or revenge trading.
Be Patient: Allow the trade to develop at its own pace; rushing can lead to mistakes.
Trading is Reactive, Not Predictive: Respond to price action as it unfolds rather than trying to forecast the future.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30)Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) – Bullish Reversal Opportunity
This chart highlights a potential buying opportunity in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) after a sharp correction. The recent dip into a key support zone could set the stage for a bullish reversal heading into 2025.
Technical Analysis:
Key Support Zone: The gray zone around 41,200–41,400 represents a strong demand area. Historically, this level has acted as a base for bullish recoveries.
Oversold Conditions: The steep sell-off suggests that the market might be oversold, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
Weekly Pivot: The weekly pivot line serves as a near-term resistance, and a breakout above this level could signal bullish momentum.
Bullish Scenario: A bounce from the support zone followed by a break above the weekly pivot would confirm the start of a new leg higher, targeting 44,000 and beyond.
Fundamental Analysis:
Economic Resilience: Despite recent corrections, the U.S. economy remains robust, with moderate inflation and stable growth supporting equity valuations.
Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: Expectations of a pause or potential rate cuts in 2025 could reignite risk appetite, favoring indices like the DJIA.
Seasonal Trends: Historically, Q1 tends to favor equities due to renewed optimism and capital inflows at the start of the year.
Conclusion:
Traders may consider entering long positions in the highlighted support zone, with stop-losses just below it to manage risk. A break above the weekly pivot could provide further confirmation of bullish momentum.
Big Money Complacency AKA "Deer In the Headlights"The violent US market selloff this afternoon after the Fed cut interest rates
was proceeded by 9 straight days of selling in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Yesterday I posed the observation
that the 9 consecutive days selling had been a warning
of something ominous and yet unknown coming soon to the market.
But no, complacency reigned.
The Fed would bail out the market the way they always do.
But no, today quite the contrary.
They're faith in all that was overwhelmingly "overwhelmed".
The proof of that " massive surprise "
was shown in the VIX, which get this rose, 74 % in just one day to 27.
My point in all this is that traders in the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average
had sniffed out all of this 10 days ago.
Sometimes broader markets show telling signs of "deer in the headlights".
This one was about big money complacency.
And as todays selloff proved.. they paid harshly for that misguided misjudgment.
THE_UNWIND
12/18/24
WOOODS OF CONNECTICUT
Dow Jones 1HTFDow Jones
Short-term outlook:
Positive (bullish) scenario:
If the price stabilizes above 43,500 and stronger buying momentum emerges, we may witness a retest of 44,000 with a potential return towards 44,600.
Negative (bearish) scenario:
A break of 43,200 downwards may push the index towards 42,800 with increased chances of further decline if selling dominates
US30 POSSIBLE BUY The market is currently testing the current Weekly 0.78 Fib area. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern.
We could see BUYERS coming in strong should the current level hold.
Disclaimer:
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account.
High-Risk Warning
Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
US30 Trade IdeaAfter a strong impulsive move to the downside and breaking below key levels, we had a corrective move to retest a recently broken support and a rejection.
Dow Plummets 1,100 Points Amid Fed’s Hawkish GuidanceMarket Reacts to Limited Rate Cut Projections and Elevated Economic Uncertainty
Dow Drops 1,100 Points in Turbulent Session After Fed Announcement
Investors rushed to reduce exposure to risk assets on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell signaled a shift in the central bank's outlook for 2025.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 1,100 points following the Fed’s anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut and its updated forward guidance. While the rate cut was expected, the announcement that only two cuts are projected for 2024 rattled investors. Powell’s message marked the end of an extended period of monetary easing, further weighing on market sentiment.
This marked the Dow’s tenth consecutive losing session, a streak not seen since 1974, when the index endured eleven straight losses.
Technical Analysis
The Dow's price dropped more than 4.5% ahead of Powell's speech, maintaining a bearish momentum. Stability below the pivot point of 42,590 suggests further downside potential, while a close above this level could indicate a reversal.
Today, the U.S. GDP release will be a key driver of market movement:
If the GDP comes in below 2.8%, it may support a bullish move toward 42,770 and possibly 42,900.
If the GDP exceeds 2.8%, bearish momentum could drive the index toward 42,380 or even as low as 41,120.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 42,590
Resistance Levels: 42,770, 42,900, 43,190
Support Levels: 42,380, 42,150, 41,970
Trend Outlook
Bullish Momentum: If the price stabilizes above 42,590.
Bearish Momentum: Likely to persist with stability below 42,590.
US30 BUYI'm expecting the market to break the resistance trendline and the horizontal trendline all together to confirm the my buy.
US30 Long Idea Expected HL is formed on us30
Bullish hammer formed at 4hr TF the Golden zone of Fib level
Bullish Divergence at 1hr TF
buy at Current Market price 43610
SL at 43290
TP 1 44255
TP 2 45065
Dow Jones for buyTechnical analysis indicates that the DJIA has support around the 40,000 level and resistance near 45,000. The index is assessed as technically slightly positive for the medium to long term.
Given these mixed signals, investors should exercise caution and consider both fundamental and technical factors when making investment decisions.
US30 Continuation w Sell Limit Prediction After US30 broke our major daily Trendline we foresee a continuation to the downside to keep riding it down, we will try to catch it on the retest to the 44.430 area. Sell limit placed now let’s see if the markets agree w our set up..
Do you think we might see a price correction for the US30?
Hi dears
I have set two target areas that I think are likely to be reached and touched.
What do you think? Do you think we predicted correctly?
BTCUSDAn idea for long on BTCUSD, Liquidity grab, waiting for structure shift and a choch on lower TF to take an entry.
Santa abandons the Dow 30Buyers in the Dow Jones are likely frustrated given the recent gains in other stock indices, and as sellers are aggressively challenging the bullish uptrend, with the index nearly erasing all gains of its 5% rally off the November 19 low. As the price approaches a prior consolidation zone between 43,319 and 43,557, a reaction is likely, potentially forming a bottom and pushing higher as the December Santa rally begins. We maintain a bullish bias above 43,111, the November 20 low.
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