Transports at tipping point? (market leading indicator) Are transports at tipping point? They are market leading indicator. See Dow Theory
DJT trade ideas
$DJT My fav market sentiment indicator.Last Friday the DJT bounced off October's gap up AVWAP and is looking to bounce off of these levels. It currently finds itself below the 20 day MA but above the VWAP mentioned before. If price is offered below last week's lows, then it's probable that it will test the 50 day MA, which could prove to be a resting area. Below the 50 MA has proved to be an area of increased demand lately, and it wouldn't be a surprise if the lows are taken out, just as it could be very probable that a rescue operation begins here and bounces up above the 20 day MA.
Leading Indicators point to more the obviousLeading Indicator panel update:
JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high.
IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle.
DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover pattern.
Value Line - Similar outlook to DJ Trans, with bearish candlestick that failed to close the gap.
TIPS - Totally bearish Marubozu that broke two supports, with MACD bearish. This market forerunner is not boding decisively bearish.
TLT - Instead of the expected bullishness in a bearish market, we see TLT being dumped with a gap down marubozu.
VIX - still low, coiling to spike perhaps?
ES1! - The S&P500 futures had a Bearish Engulfing last week... indicative of a follow through downside in the weeks to come.
So... the leading indicators overall are bearish, and getting more so, with the S&P500 just became indicative of some real retracement potential in motion.
DJT Transportation Index buy 1546-15489 TP 15637, 15741Dow Jones Transportation Index in bullish mode. Buy on retracement in 1546.28 to 15489.81 zone. Stoploss at 15416.36.
Zig ZagZig Zag almost complete. The abc zig zag consists of 12345 that makes up A (Impulsive) and Abc that makes up B (Correction) and 12345 that makes up C (Impulsive).
BEAR IS ON $DJTTransportation index is a leading indicator of the general economy. it too ha also broke swing bottom. Just take a look at all the transportation stocks, majority of them are on a downtrend.
Bad time to come
Repeat of Covid Collapse?Bear Market? I'm just publishing this idea in case the market does drop and I can say I saw something. Maybe something will happen in the next 14-21 days (until 10/4 I think I marked on the chart)
These are just thoughts, nothing to take seriously...
Evergrande Not paying interest payments
- Potentially cause a ripple effect due to the large amount of US companies that are invested in China causing larger damage than expect?
- China pissing their pants and having the USA slip in the puddle
Increasing protests over Covid Vaccines
AMC MOASS
GME MOASS
Usual Mid September - October Bearish month
TLT Bullish Pennant as well, looking to break above 152.
What else am I watching?
TNX - 1/23/2020 bearish candle and break down people leaving
GOLD 2/13/2020 large moves up (money moving TO gold)
TLT 2/13/2020 startes to move up (money moving to TLT)
US10Y 2/18/2020 (started dropping)
JNK - Dropped same day as SPY (covid collapse 2/20/2020)
TLT/JNK chart - when this chart spikes like it did between 1/22/2020 on ward it shows big money ditching JNK to go to TLT (safe haven)
DXY - Strong dollar, weak stock market
Hedges?
TLT
Uranium (SRUUF/UUUU/URNM)
Cash
Or this could be a consolidation of sorts sideways.
TRANS - Trannies struggling in Trade WarsWith Containers hitting $35K for Transportation, an all time high...
Index of Global Real Economic Activity plunging...
All is well, move along.
Building a Container home?
Better buy a sailboat, it moves.
WEI has been cut on ONE HALF since April...
What is WEI ya say?
Weekly Economic Index - cut in half nearly in 4 months.
All is well... Move along.
GANN's 90 year Cycle, I believe, ends in March of 2022...
Ricky times ahead.
SPX since 1970, 2ed lowest correlation with Dow transportation! Nothing to add to the chart here, we are into the 2ed lowest correlation between Don transportation and SPX since 170
S&P500 Leading Indicator ScanRetracement clearly over, and now 5 out of 7 of my panel of leading indicators are suggesting that more crazy upside on the S&P500 is on the way. Only the High Yield Bonds and the Russell2000 have not taken off - yet.
On the contrary, we can visibly tell that the S&P500 is being stretched. It obviously is.
Nonetheless, expecting further gravity defying up spikes, at least for the next two weeks or so ... tread carefully!
DJT on a downtrend DJT is on a downtrend since i last posted on it last month. Of not all stocks in DJT are on a downtrend but the major ones are underperforming.
DJT touched on the MA100 line back in Jan 2021 and rose to ATH in May 2021. Since then it has declined around 13%. It is a lower high and low on the weekly and this indicates and confirms the downtrend unless this is broken.
UPS recently gapped down 3 days ago and has been going sideways (inside bars).
The transportation index is the driver of the economy and you need it to transport goods around. Perhaps the economy is slowing down a bit before moving higher. But with so many things are at ATH at the moment and very high valuations on few stocks, there could be a general corrections on the way, but might not be for a couple more months.
If the supply of credit is there by the Feds, this market will hold.
DJT ALERT!!!Dow jones transport still have plenty of room to the downside. While DJI continue to hold near the highs. Expect a big drop if the major index decide to follow the transport chart.
I moved to a net long at 90% in RAILSThe wave structure and cycle which was due to make a low due now has come in we will now see a new up leg and it will be lead by DOW TRANS But a warning if the djt only rallies back to a 50 to 618of this drop the last 5 weeks then a major CRASH will beset as I think into oct 10/20 .ALSO on oct 11 I will not be posting for about 6 weeks major reconstruction of my left shoulder and recovery. BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
๐ง๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐จ๐ฝ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ: $DJT Daily. ๐-ish DivergenceBullish divergence at bottom of channel. Possible run to start on false #DeltaVariant fears?
$TRAN $IYT $JETS $AAL $UAL $DAL $LUV $FDX $EXPE $BA $SPY $ES_F $VIX $DIA $DJI #Stocks #Transports ๐ซ
Things may get uglyThe Transportation index generally is a leading indicator of the economy as you need logistics to move things around especially nowadays with online delivery.
The Dow Transportation index has fallen below the support level of 15317 and on June 10 when SPX hits all time high, the Dow index dropped and closed on the bottom. This generally is a bearish sign as the DOW is better represented of the US economy. Dow composed of major stocks from all industries except Utilities and Transport.
The Dow Jones index is weighted by the prices of stocks. SPX is weighted by the market value.
I guess time will tell
Not Slowing DownThe DJ Transportation Index is a leading indicator of the general stock market trend. It doesn't look like it's slowing down so for the moment, it's all bullish for the US market.
Transport IMPORTANCEMr Dow Jones said the real metric was the transport services. Well, here you go (off rails, spinning wheels, no paddle, crash landing, etc.).
Potential top in DJTWe might be close to a potential topping formation in the Dow Jones Transportation Index. I view this Index as a leading indicator for equities. Connecting the trendline from April '09 to the bottom last year, and projecting this trendline on previous tops and extending it, we have come close to the top of it right now. A potential scenario i'm eyeballing is where the DJI (Dow Jones Industrial) makes a higher high, but the DJT fails to make a higher high ( a divergence, see this chart ). There have been several in the past where we have seen market corrections shortly after.
DJTDow Jones Transportation Average | Month-on-month, the trend has been higher with higher lows culminating in a rising wedge combined with negative divergence on the 7 and 14-Day RSI. We do however know that the upside breaks of rising wedges lead to trend continuations. A break above 12900 opens up a bullish break while a print below 12200 would see a bearish structure being triggered.
DJT - Elliottwave analysis - possible correction time DJT - The transportation index seems completed impulse cycle from major bottom and should correct down. It is a sell set up with invalidation level above 12636.55 for abc down cycle. The overall correction should go down up to the level around 4th wave low near 11200 or even lower. There is always a possibility of further 5th wave extension, so if price break above 12636.60 then it may go higher.
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DJT - Elliottwave analysis - possible correction timeDJT - In 4 hr time frame, it looks like the impulse cycle has been finished unless, the 5th wave will extend further. If considering the impulse over, then there will be big correction expected down below 10913 at least. The commmon cycle between both options, is simple flat like abc correction as shown on the chart, which might go for minor new high and then expected to be reversed for C down.
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