Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund Swingers and Seasonal Play:If the structure, for the near term, truly turns bullish (higher lows), we might be looking out of a move back into G-Fund mid-late February.
DWCPF trade ideas
$DWCPF/$SPX comparison for the TSP
l am comparing DJ:DWCPF with SP:SPX and looking at the ratio for how to know how much to allot to each sector. (Us TSP folk only have a couple funds we're allowed to invest in). DJ:DWCPF is the S Fund, and SP:SPX is the C Fund in the TSP, for reference.
I added a comparison of AMEX:IWM and SP:SPX also, just because they really seem to move together and I wanted to see how true that was.
Baby blue = SP:SPX
Purple = $DWCPF/ SP:SPX
Yellow = $IWM/ SP:SPX
Come to your own conclusions, but for myself I think I'll look to be more long small caps after a major recovery in the markets. Could be years until that happens, but that ratio chart just looks abysmal.
I'm 100% DJ:DWCPF , but I'll be looking to deversify soon unless we continue to see small caps outperform. We'll let the charts tell the story and react to what I see with the data provided
$DWCPF/$SPX comparison for the TSP folkThis is mainly for the TSP folk.
I am comparing DJ:DWCPF with SP:SPX and looking at the ratio for how to know how much to allot to each sector. (Us TSP folk only have a couple funds we're allowed to invest in)
I added a comparison of AMEX:IWM and SP:SPX also, just because they really seem to move together and I wanted to see how true that was.
Baby blue = SP:SPX
Purple = DJ:DWCPF \ SP:SPX
Yellow = AMEX:IWM \ SP:SPX
Come to your own conclusions, but for myself I think I'll look to be more long small caps after a major recovery in the markets. Could be years until that happens, but that ratio chart just looks abysmal.
I'm 100% DJ:DWCPF , but I'll be looking to deversify soon unless we continue to see small caps outperform. We'll let the charts tell the story and react to what I see with the data provided
DWCPF (Similar VXF) - Wyckoff PhaseThe four phases of the Wyckoff cycle are as follows: Accumulation, where stocks are acquired by large investors during a period of sideways movement; Markup, which represents an uptrend in prices; Distribution, characterized by sideways movement as large investors sell off their stock holdings; and Markdown, indicating a period of downtrend.
Currently, DWCPF appears to be in the Markup phase. VXF, a similar ETF offered by Vanguard.
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund DWCPFThrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund DWCPF: strong support found in the 1740-1760 range. Despite that, I am still not entirely convinced that this is out of the woods just yet. Still confronted with a distribution zone above. Could we see a potential inverse head and shoulder on this daily chart? I can see a crude one. For more information on why I am still in a defensive posture (core holdings in G-Fund), read the macro portion of my last post about SPX.
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund IdeaA few things to consider, on the macro side of the house: Jerome Powell, while ambiguous, did not distance the fed from a potential longer rate hike cycle, nor did he commit to the current terminal rate. 25 BPS and high employment inclines me to believe that inflation will go up MoM. On the technical side of the house, the highlighted area is where we've seen reversals and this is where we took a down turn in August, after that last June-Aug 2022 rally. Planning on moving to the G-Fund, based on reaction to this zone. I am not committed to a bearish or bullish thesis BUT things do seem eerily similar to the aforementioned rally.
DWCPF TSP S-Fund plan for a bullish scenarioOn August 18th, I moved all my funds, in the Thrift Savings Plan, from the C (SPX) and S (DWCPF) funds into the G-fund. Considering that its been 3 weeks since this move and a clear structure has emerged, I've planned a return into the S-Fund through a series of inter-fund transfers, as more bullish indicators are confirmed. If all bullish indicators (3 sets) are consecutively met, then I will have moved my 50% of my holdings from the G-fund here. I don't want to prescribe a specific time frame. Again, this is in the event of a series of bullish occurrences and a confluence of indicators. Please keep in mind that next week a lot can change with the CPI report.
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) S-Fund (DWCPF) plan for August 2022Following the same plan that I had for the C-Fund (SPX), went to 100% G-Fund due to entry into supply zone and CPI report. Once escape from supply occurred, waited for respect of the structure and support at 150 DMA to re-enter. Moved 50% of funds that were in G to the S Fund.
$DWCPF - Total Stock Market Minus S&P - Dec 2018 ComparisonMeasured move in Q4 '18 nearly identical to the recent move.
SMALL CAPS - LongSmall Caps go Higher. Do they make new highs...Yes, by the end of the summer!
Fed Normalization cut in half then ending.
No rate hikes but if the data changes, could be potential in the last quarter or maybe they cave and lower?
Trade Narrative...no longer matters...the Fed is now all about expectation management, just means they have absolutely no clue as to what they are doing!
