USDOLLAR trade ideas
DXY D1 Bullish Not having a clear cut trend in the past weeks of the dollar index, we see some choppy movement with lots of momentum. Given the previous day close of a bullish candle (Friday), we can clearly see on naked price that the bullish bar violated both the high and low of it previous bearish candle. In most cases I tend to take that as a reversal signal. I'm expecting a little accumulation around this region and on the downside before seeing our rally up for the week. My eyes are on #GBPUSD and #EURUSD sells for this week heading to NFP
DXY DAILYWe closed the week with
- A bearish weekly engulfing candle
-Bullish daily engulfing candle
therefore
-On h4 we anticipate that slight pullback form some sort of a H&S pattern have shorterm buys to continue the daily bullish engulfing momentum and overally complete that weekly pullback for sellers to kick in and join the weekly momentum
DXY H4 PULLBACKWe closed the week with
- A bearish weekly engulfing candle
-Bullish daily engulfing candle
therefore
-On h4 we anticipate that slight pullback form some sort of a H&S pattern have shorterm buys to continue the daily bullish engulfing momentum and overally complete that weekly pullback for sellers to kick in and join the weekly momentum
DOWJONES|USDOLLAR:WAIT.NEW BULLISH IMPULSE|UPTREND|LONG SETUP🔔After our previous Take profits on USDollar , today the charts show a new great opportunity...
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USDOLLARIt appears the usd has some room to run still until it reaches a higher time frame resistance area. I expect a volatile week because of significant event risk. inflation and J Powell is on the docket. In my opinion. To start the week, I expect the dollar to continue to fall towards near term support. The usd is vulnerable under 11850.00,in my opinion, and may retest the main support lower down on a break down of said price level. In the event inflation comes in hotter than expected we may see a run up to test the " key price area" i have outlined. Then it all depends on Powell"s statement for the determination for a possible break out of the range or drop back down under 11850. Never the less, the upside seems limited, as there is, what appears to be strong resistance higher up.
USDOLLAR index Down temporarily?A nice rejection from the Daily descending trendchannel at a golden Fib lvl dorming a Double Top pattern
Price is near oversold and may drop to touch the 200 EMA before rising again
However returning below the trendchannel again would make us wait for reaction at the zone between 11740-11790
***Color coding***
Violet Monthly & Weekly
Red Daily
Blue Hourly
Grey LQ zone
***
Thanks for reading and safe trading everyone,,,
Sticky CirclesAn example of Fib circles exhibiting their "stickiness"
Price prefers to trend along the circle, rather than break out. Although this breakout will come, it finds it 'easier'
I'm not sure of the mathematical relationship that allows this, but it is common and I have seen it among many of charts published and during personal time
If anyone has insight please enlighten me
Two examples here the USDOLLAR and ZRXUSD
USDOLLAR Daily Likely To Run Into Near-Term ExhaustionPrice has deviated from trend significantly on the daily chart since last Wednesday's Fed statement release. Trend, in this case, referring to the peaks and troughs on the daily as defined by the green trendline. However, the massive momentum acceleration over the last week has seen the gradient steepen to orange and then to red. This is unlikely to be sustainable in the near term as it will require enormous market momentum to keep the red gradient steady. Market participants may succeed temporarily but it is likely that exhaustion sets as profits are banked. This will then set up the platform for the next potential leg higher. We refer to a similar market back in march as denoted by the black trendline.
USDOLLAR Showing Strength Ahead of Fed ReleaseFXCM's USDOLLAR index is in the bullish area on the daily chart on the left. The hourly EMAs and stochastic are in bullish mode and potentially align short-term traders with the daily. A movement of stochastic to 80 level and maintenance of that level (blue arrow) increase the chance of a successful trade. Trend following indicators may be useful in this case as a potential exit tool. Stop under hourly support in conjunction with risk management techniques is important. Please note volatility in this instrument is likely to increase tomorrow with the Fed release (6:00 pm GMT) and during the press conference (6:30 pm GMT).
USDOLLAR aka DJGday Guys. It's Friday.
Today we analyze USDOLLAR Index. The main reason we analyzing this pair, because we would like to know the current condition of USD Currency performance.
We see on the USDOLLAR or DJ at the moment, it was created an Extreme Demand Zone (EDZ) on May 10 at 11655. This the starting point bullish trend slowly build-up which is we getting confirmation that EDZ was tested and rejected three times on May 18, 21 & 25 at 11659. From here we getting more confirmation of the bullish trend.
Zoom in to Hourly Timeframe, We see a choppy Range EDZ at 11674 and ESZ at 11756 but clearly showing that bullish trend still in control. Currently, the price was inside of the LRZ, and the price movement creating a beautiful HiLow market structure.
What we projecting here is, the price will continue bullish which is the first target will be 11723 at MRZ, the next 11742 at URZ, and the Third at 11761 ESZ.
If this happens, most likely USD getting stronger and stronger. Based on recent NFP, fundamentally data release May data higher than April data. Here we able to see that the US economy is improving slowly.
If the USD gets stronger what gonna happen with XAUUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD?
Let's see what happens next. Cheers
* Educational and Learning purposes only. No Buy/Sell recommendation. This is not investment advice.
USDOLLAR Bearish continuationLooking for continuation of bearish trend on the US dollar. Price last week created a signifcant lower low and has a high probability to drop and continue to the low. Looking for 3 potential situations including a very impulsive break of the low and continuation of the trade.
Bullish Forecast for the USDOLLARUSDOLLAR, Bullish H3
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Khiwe
At this profile page, the shared analysis, ideas and also, the strategy of a chart belong to Khiwe with some being influenced. The technical set-ups are speculative, they are not guaranteed for accuracy or in completeness in the form of any content; -it is not to advice on financial markets. Please apply your own analysis and confirm it with price action.
XAUUSD dropped as Yields Adjusted to Inflation ExpectationsThe XAUUSD dropped markedly yesterday as yields adjusted on the initial jobless claims and ADP beats. This is an interesting and potentially telling reaction. The yield adjustment likely came as inflation expectations were altered by the market. We also refer to the USDOLLAR which appreciated as the US10Y adjusted. It is often said the XAUUSD is a hedge against inflation but yesterday’s move was contrary to this. Therefore, as and when nominal yields make further adjustments we consider it prudent to look at the XAUUSD response relative to the USDOLLAR reaction to help with the analysis of direction.
USDOLLAR: NON-FARM PAYROLLS - DATA EXPECTED TO BE STUNNING ! 🔔The April U.S. jobs report partially justified the Fed's reluctance to adjust the parameters of the QE, as the economy created only 266,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. However, commodity markets continue to call out that price pressures have reached levels that pose a real danger to the economy. Frenzied inflation is hard to get under control. Last week's released CPI figure reflected a 0.8% jump in prices, while experts had predicted a 0.2% increase. And while Fed officials are confident that they can handle the pressure with monetary policy tools, there is no guarantee of that. Moreover, it is monetary and fiscal policy that fuels inflationary pressures. Twenty-two U.S. states are eliminating federal unemployment benefits.
Today, U.S. citizens are paid $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits as part of the Biden bailout package. But these payments have resulted in many Americans receiving more in benefits than they would have earned at work. Quite naturally, the desire to look for work disappears.
Such negative effects go a long way toward explaining the very contradictory statistics in the United States:
On the one hand, business activity indices are off the charts, companies are willing to hire workers and produce more.
On the other hand, unemployment rose in April compared to the previous month.
Since the beginning of March, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time has fallen by more than a third. Over the same period, the total number of people receiving benefits has fallen only 12.7%.
Non-Farm Payrolls Employment
Last data: 266K
Consensus Forecast: 650K
The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States.
It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy.
Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile.
Unemployment Rate
Past data: 6.1%
Consensus forecast: 5.9%
The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.