ASXAUD trade ideas
The Aussies: Is this another one-candle situation?Well, it is one candle at the leading edge. We cannot know if it means anything until stuff happens. Those who look for predictions that foretell the future are in the wrong game.
In trend-following methodologies, one would ride an escalator down or up - on a smaller time frame that that shown here (to conserve losses).
When you zoom out of this chart, you see a market struggling to stay afloat. That's usually not a good sign. The 4H ATR line is above the recent batch of ranging candles. This means there is bearish pressure in this market (on this time frame only). The bulls have lots of work to do if they wanna get above the 4H (amber) line.
The trouble for the Aussies is that they are bounced around by a) the DJI b) the USTech100 and c) US Bond markets. That's why it looks so indecisive (at this time). They are normally most scared of the USTech indices. So watch USTech as well for a steer on probabilities on lower time frames.
XJO looking delicately poised...The ASX 200 index is looking very delicately poised. Clearly there is an ascending wedge forming but it is unclear if price will break to the downside or upside and when? Price is currently sitting on a support level from December last year. MACD has just crossed to the downside but RSI not showing overbought signals yet. Fundamentals are going to play a big part over the next few weeks as rising bond yields are spreading fear across the global markets and future inflation fears are rearing their head. Will Biden's stimulus package provide the booster shot needed in the tech stocks or have recent earning highlighted the extent of the over valuation in the markets. Next week is going to be a critical week. Looking for price to stay above 6766 and some signals of continuation to the upside. Hold on for a big week.
Bearish fears looming or are traders losing there edge??After this thoroughly rough week i have noticed that among traders on the ASX fear looms have been spreading, from untrusty discord chats all the way to journalist articles. However market movements to the downside are just as normal as bullish days. In fact they are often needed to bring the market and all who trades back to reality.
This post is to do outline the possibilities of the future and what traders may come to expect. Of course this is not financial advice and what I say should only be taken as a grain of salt.
I will mention both Technical analysis features aswell as Fundamental.
In regards to technical analysis the ASX 200 tells a variety of stories and possibility's.
For example it appears the market is forming an ascending triangle, and for all those that trade this pattern it is well known that once price action breaks the triangle it will determine the future price direction.
Therefore if the price breaks above the top of the triangle it can be said it will result in a bullish run, likewise a break on the bottom on the triangle singles a drop in price.
What I take from this that within the upcoming weeks will determine the direction of the market so "only time will tell".
In regards to resistance and support levels I would say there multiple significant levels that will need to be broken for future market movement.
As shown below if the upcoming market is bullish I would only confirm this once the price level "6851.5" is broken and then treated as a support level. My reasoning for this is the past months have struggled staying above this level and can inhibit the progression of the post crash bull run.
A final significant level I would outline as a key support level will be "6370 " this level has not been broken since the march crash and has only been broken with strong price action. These levels will be posted below for clarity
Despite what retail investors have been saying it appears that a bearish outlook is not all round as the XVI is at "normal" levels and does not show any signs of distress or volatility.
Which brings me to a hypothesis that the noise I hear is actually new traders who have a lack of experience in the market being distressed with "red days".
To do with fundamental research from looking at director transactions a large majority have been buying stocks in moderately large volume. Where as of the time i am writing this there is a current 1:11 sell vs buy ratio. What this tells me inside investors have little fear of what the market outlook is and rather care about the quality of the company.
Overall I have a neutral outlook on the Australian Market where a trend in either direction will be no surprise. As a trader we should focus on trading what we know and sticking to well developed thought out plans.
I hope this can benefit traders like myself. If you found my brief research helpful a like will be much appreciated :)
ASX: XJO- S&P/ASX 20-0 Index Analysis - Crucial levelsASX:XJO
6565 levels are crucial for XJO previous swing low
Second support is at the Fibonacci levels 6453
Also hitting supply zone - previous top that's in a rectangle box.
ASX200 looking like a rough day ahead. Buckle up Rough day ahead given the sell off on US markets, fear of inflation and rising bond yields. I'm expecting a drop onto 50EMA today with possible break below to take us down to 100 EMA/bottom of channel next week or two. Buckle up :-(
Neutral on the next moveThis graphic is self explanatory but needs to be followed daily if you trade the ASX. This is a wait & watch situation.
abc correction of second wave of higher degree III wave? abc correction of second wave of higher degree III wave. Volume cluster at 6800 and channel resistance above.
A tough week on the ASX, what does next week have in store?Pretty tough week on the ASX 200. Price down around 1.5% for the week. Could be seen as a minor correction. Price has broken 50EMA and now sitting at just below a 3 month trendline and at the bottom of the Bollinger band which has historically provided strong support so we could be looking at a slightly more stable week next week as prices recover however some US markets such as Nasdaq showing signs of stress and correction which would naturally see ASX follow. Our sentiment is neutral for the week ahead with the most likely expectation being a flat(ish) week ahead but only time will tell. Trade with extra diligence over the coming weeks especially on long positions.
For educational purposes only.
Do your own research
We have not closed below this level for months ASX200The trend is your friend, I am still bullish in this market,
however, we must hold the 50 moving average on the 3 Day chart "yellow line", currently sitting at 6400.
We have not closed below this level and 50 moving average for months....
ASX200 Short term Swing LongKey Level for support.
1HR chart creating a D/B with strong Divergence.
Anticipating hold and bounce in a short term
CSR Ltd (on ASX - green) vs peers HVN, GWA; indices XJO, XDJBuoyant CSR Ltd (on ASX - green) vs peers Harvey Norman (HVN), GWA Group (GWA); indices XJO, XDJ (light green), XBK (red).
XJO AUS200 rising resistance incoming - short or long possibleXJO AUS200 rising resistance incoming - short or long possible
If Daily bounces of resistence for 1-3 days, short, finishes above for 1-3 days, LONG!!!
XJO range boundThe XJO has had a weak bounce compared to its big brother the S&P, its now consolidating ready for its next move a potential double top I have been in and out short on this one and with all the government stimulus I have played this one wrong. Maybe I should have focus my shorts on the Aussie banks and flipped the XJO as a long.
As 1.9T of stimulus rolls out in the US economy and if the market deicides to play drunk and push the S&P higher we should see a nice rally on the XJO making new highs.
6260 would be an invalidation and you should then look for shorts.
ASX200 Supercycle end?A potential scenario for XJO using Elliott Wave. Some other scenarios include an alternate placement of (IV) and an extension of (V) but this one has the best fit.
I go into more detail in this video:
www.youtube.com
Not financial advice, DYOR.
AUS 200 IS RIDING INSIDE CHANNELAUS 200 IS RIDING INSIDE CHANNEL .
WE ARE WAITING HERE FOR DECISION :-
IF MARKET SHOWS SOME REJECTION WE WILL DECIDE TO SELL 🍅
AND IF IT BREAK THE CHANNEL THEN GO FOR LONG.🥦
📢IF YOU LIKE MY IDEA HIT LIKE BUTTON👍 AND REMEMBER TO FOLLOW FOR MORE UPDATES⏳
XJO ASX200 will bounce off upper resistance and go lowerXJO ASX200 will bounce off upper resistance and go lower
Risk Management - ASX200What a close for Australia ASX200,
closed below 20 MA and 50 MA.
If we gap down and not close above 6586 early next week then support will turn to resistance.
This would indicate a pullback or correction is very likely...
Cycle of 5 x 60I believe we are going to see another flash crash here, price has progressed for 2 units of time (120days) declined for 1 unit of time (60days) and gone up another 2 units (120days) signalling a change in trend. :) Good luck :)
