View on Chinese YuanI forsee around 13108 region gonna reach soon
Yuan is showing signs of weakness at the moment
but nothing is 100% guaranteed / we should have proper risk management /
CNXUSD trade ideas
Pre-emtively Short Chinese StocksSo China imposed tariffs on 75 US Billion of US imports, of soya, oil , etc..
The drama will occur again and Trump will spit back with tariffs or measures on a surprise,
so as an anticipation shorting Chinese stocks index is recommended.
SL is set based on shown trend line acting as resistance,
TP on Fibonacci sequence.
China 50 Possible Head and Shoulders PatternWe have had a recent downtrend to the 13400 zone where it looked like we could see an inverse head and shoulders to the downside.
However, we failed to break below. Now we are attempting to create a head and shoulders pattern to the upside. Waiting for a break above 13700 with a nice close.
Equities seem to be ready to get a boost from world central markets with the promise of more cheap money. The ECB is tomorrow and they are likely to cut rates even negative and provide more stimulus. The US Federal Reserve is then on tap to do the same next week on the 31st.
The Chinese markets may have other issues. Talks of a banking crisis with Baoshang bank, and other economic problems...China's last GDP reading of 6.2% was the lowest in 27 years.
CN50 - Possible Head & Shoulder formationOANDA:CN50USD
Trade Idea
CHN50 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 13650 (stop at 13750)
Short term momentum is bearish. Price action has posted a Doji candle and is neutral for short-term sentiment. Bias is mildly bearish today but we need to see a break of 13300 to confirm the downward pressure. In line with the possible early stages of a head & shoulders pattern and the strong rejection of gains, we look to set shorts in anticipation of a swing lower.
Our profit targets will be 13350 and 13150
Resistance: 13600 / 13700 / 13800
Support: 13320 / 13250 / 13150
China's A50, same pattern repeating add bullish failuresSHS shs failures
Will not trade, long other Equities
Stagflation - US and global recession in 2020Stagflation
Last summer, economist Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa identified 10 potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Many involve the United States.
Trade wars with China and other countries, along with restrictions on migration, foreign direct investment, and technology transfers, could have profound implications for global supply chains, raising the threat of stagflation (slowing growth alongside rising inflation).
Oil risk
With Iran sanctions and the Gulf of Oman tanker attack, we can add potential oil spikes as a supply-side risk. Oil price rise could threaten aggregate demand and thus consumption growth because tariffs and higher fuel prices reduce disposable income.
While there is no one way to predict a recession with technical analysis, there are ways to begin tracking multiple indicators that may collectively stand a much higher chance of predicting accurately the probability of one within a given time frame.
The slope of the yield curve
Yield curves don't typically invert. When they do, it creates an anomaly worth looking at. An inversion occurs when the yield on short-term Treasury securities exceeds the yield on long-term Treasury securities. While it might not seem like much at first glance, the inverted yield curve is actually a rare occurrence that can act as the bellwether for an economic recession.
For more information please refer to my analysis: Yield-curve-Employment-rate-VIX-Volatility-Buffet-Indicator/
The Boyds economic recession model is triggered by a yield curve inversion (seen as red on the graph).
Employment rate
In contrast to a narrowing of the spread between short- and long-term Treasury yields, a low unemployment rate usually suggests strengthening economic growth. However, historically, a trough in the unemployment rate also tends to be a reliable predictor of a business recession. Both the Civilian Employment-Population Ratio and Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) are at all-time lows. We need to watch carefully because once a recession begins, unemployment rises sharply.
CHINA A50 Short Vision by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION
After the downside movement triggered by the Trade War price consolidated on a corrective pattern, and it may be finished. We will wait for a breakout of the structure to take short positions.
DAILY VISION:
Short trade, short termReasons: Crossed MA50 in 15M, already tested upper trend line, strong sell candle on 15min
China A50 trend analysis Assumption : completion of C wave, range bound market.
Indicators used: time segmented volume, 20/50/200 EMA, DMA
The Chart Posted 3 Days Ago Met the First Objective.The H&S hourly top in the Chinese market just met the first objective.
China H&S target reached and now a bullish wedgeLooks like an almost perfect bullish wedge here. The H&S had a target arond 12.600, which has been reached, so it could be a (temp) turning point. With this bullish wedge at the low, it seems to be a perfect setup. Ideally we see one more drop to test the low again. When seeing it turn a bit at that low, might get a chance to catch the exact low. But in theory, with a wedge we want to see 3 touches of the support line, which we already have here, so it could already have set the low.
This wedge would also perfectly fit the picture of a normal correction of the big drop we had the past days. Making like a right shoulder as we can see on the left.
The CN50 Better Hold 12,600So far the Chinese CN50 has worked off the hourly oversold condition poorly. A break of 12,600, and this could go down to fulfill the H&S top measuring objective.
The Hourly H&S Top Worked !The H&S top mentioned last week on Twitter worked well. This projects to around 12,600.
China50 doesn't look good.China 50 looks pretty bad. Hope it's nothing serious.
The MegaMACD consists of simple modifications to the normal MACD, and has all the trend nonsense taken out.
It's singularly useful to quantify the "strength" of impulses. If it's not doing what price is doing (like here), then something is awry.
There are other reasons to short this thing outside of the MegaMACD bear div, but those aren't included.
CN50 will go bull once again. Elliot Wave outlook. Possible end of a Zig Zag. will look for entry monday.
Death Cross/Golden Cross/Death Cross and back to POControl This serves as a supplement to my analysis:
-S&P 500 Bellwether-for-US-economic-recession-The-Inverted-Yield-Curve
The Inverted Yield Curve
To my base argument I now include data that show younger treasury bond yields are yielding more interest than older ones. This is known as the inverted yield curve.
While it might not seem like much at first glance, the inverted yield curve is actually a rare occurrence that can act as the bellwether for an economic recession.
Adding these data to my core argument:
The S&P 500 rallied by about 25% since bottoming on December 24, 2018 during the Q4 2018 financial market turmoil.
From the depths of despair, the market has climbed higher because the Federal Reserve , meeting this week, has stopped raising interest rates, and there may—or may not—be progress on trade.
It’s also very possible that the market was simply oversold in the low-liquidity month of December. But since the rally, pessimists have been warning that the S&P 500 will reverse course at any moment—just as they have through this entire bull market.
S&P 500 has yet to top its September high and many from TEAM BULL may not see a reason to sell. I can’t prove that this approach is wrong. However I do feel that the odds are favouring another major decline, and soon.
I am not implying the market will play out the same dismal way that my graph illustrates historically, but to think that stocks can’t retest the lows of last year (or go lower) would be naïve.
