DECEUR trade ideas
Weekly Technical Analysis 19/02/2024Start your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
*KEY
Trend direction is set by the slope of the VWAP
Trend phase is determined by the current price relative to the VWAP (20) level and Elliot waves
Support & Resistance are set by the StdDev #2 Lower and Upper respectively.
Momentum is determined by the RSI level (70 as overbought and under 30 as oversold).
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Analysis
www.tradingview.com is currently in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with the price above its upward-sloping 20-period VWAP of 16,955. The index finds support at 16,799 and faces resistance near 17,111. The RSI stands at 58, indicating a positive momentum but not yet overbought.
UK 100 is in the impulsive phase of a neutral trend with its price above the flat 20-period VWAP of 7,620. The index's support level is at 7,514.3, with resistance at 7,725.8. The RSI is at 58, suggesting a bullish momentum.
Wall Street is in an impulsive phase of a bullish trend, highlighted by its price above the upwards-sloping 20-period VWAP of 38,482. The support for this index is at 38,064, with resistance at 38,900. The RSI is at 57, indicating positive momentum.
Gold is in the corrective phase of a bearish trend, with its price just below the down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 2,025 but close to it. The support level is at 1,993, with resistance at 2,057. The RSI at 49 indicates a neutral to bearish momentum, suggesting the market is assessing direction.
EUR/USD is in the corrective phase of a bearish trend, with the price waking just above its 20-period VWAP of 1.0787. The support is at 1.0706, with resistance at 1.0864. The RSI at 46 indicates a bearish bias, suggesting potential for further declines.
GBP/USD is consolidating in what has been a weak bearish trend, with the price below the flat-to-down-sloping 20-period VWAP of 1.2626. Support is found at 1.2529, with resistance at 1.2732. The RSI at 47 suggests a bearish outlook, with room for downward movement.
USD/JPY is in the impulsive phase of a bullish trend, with its price above the 20-period VWAP of 148.75, having recently probed above the upper StdDev #2. The support level is at 146.28, with resistance at 151.22. The RSI is at 62, indicating strong bullish momentum.
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 19/02/2024 (+ HTF)In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
DAX (M15): Bearish -DEEP CRAB detectedDAX (M15): Bearish -DEEP CRAB detected
The price could reach 17 145 according to Fibonacci retracements, before falling to 16 875, then 16 690
American PMIs could influence this movement
Monitor the 50 and 200 Exponential Moving Averages
A BUY put strategy on MARCH or JUNE is possible
stay careful
DAX, this has to drop somewhenHello everyone,
against all fundamental backdrop the DAX has created a new ATH, which is inline with my elliot wave analysis. To make it short I want to trade against the strong trend movement to catch a correction back to the 16k area . Confirmation will be the break of the current area of 16750 .
If you want to scalp this you can just set your SL over the recent high. I prefer to have it higher, in case there will be one more wave.
DAX: Market Top is being formed. DAX hit the HH trendline on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.185, MACD = 53.000, ADX = 25.248) but a Bearish Divergence RSI. The 1D CCI is repeating the May 19th-July 31st 2023 successive peak pattern on the HH that eventually corrected first to the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 1D MA200 and then under the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently, a crossing under the 1D MA50 will be the ideal sell signal to target the S1 level (TP = 16,350).
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What you are NOT seeing in the DAX weekly chart Most analysts and traders are looking for traditional charting tools when looking for a trade opportunity.
However, looking at charts differently can bring up valuable information.
After all, the whole idea of analyzing price charts is to predict the next market move based on the behavior of the masses, which is reflected in the price chart action.
Long story short for this case, based on the info we provided in the chart: this price could be a good risk/reward for a SELL trade for the next few weeks, targeting a 6% move to the downside.
Also, from a fundamental point of view, do we have the context of another 5% up move in the next weeks? If not, this is another argument that sustains a ranging price move in the area of 16200-17400 EUR.
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well.
My bearish outlook or at least i gave the higher odds to the bears was wrong and bulls just kept buying everything today. Tomorrow is Opex and all markets are at big resistances again after beginning the week with a selloff. Tomorrow has the potential to be wild.
I see it as a trading range at the highs and the recent rally had 2 bigger moves, with 3 smaller legs inside. My next best guess is that odds favor the bears and we get a two legged down movement for which i drew the first one potentially playing out tomorrow. Please note that the odds of this are very slim. Bulls are in control but buying up here is beyond bad from r:r point. Shorting this could also blow your account pretty fast if market decides that we need another ath 200 points above. Doing nothing and waiting for easier trades is a legit strategy.
dax
Dax had a big spike from the open and bulls used it to take profits. They tried twice to bring it back up but failed at the January high 17123. Dax closed right in the middle of opening price and the spike high. The US session kept buying at lifted dax above the previous February high 17151, inside a very tight bull channel.
bull case: Bulls trapped the bears and just went higher since yesterdays close. They now are near the ath and want to print a higher one. Their problem though is, that the risk:reward of buying up here is bad and the selloff at the beginning of the week was strong enough to make traders cautious to not get trapped above 17100 again. If bulls can keep it above 17057, odds are high for even higher prices.
bear case: Bears see 4 pushes up from Tuesday and see it as a trading range on higher time frames. Risk:Reward is clearly on their side to sell up here but first they need to stop the bulls making higher highs. Their first target is the 1h 20ema at 17100 and make the market go sideways there.
short term: sideways to down
medium-long term: down - nothing will change that.
trade of the day: long since Globex since the gap never closed (again, i know). alternatively could just buy everything near the 1h 20ema since Tuesdays lows
German40 All Time High - Time to go down Significant ATH with a nice wick of the 1H candle left. Bad fundamentals for EU this morning. Correction time. 1:10 RR. Stop loss a bit above the high as sometimes bigger shadows are created, plus we have an event in the afternoon. Good luck
DAX H4 | Potential bearish reversalDAX (GER40) could rise towards a pullback resistance and potentially reverse off this level to drop towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 17,037.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Stop Loss: 17,087.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level
Take Profit: 16,791.05
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
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DAX Short - U.S. CPI data breached trend structure Expecting a technical followup lower after CPI market dump.
Good RR.
Short position earn interest thru holding too.
Good Luck!
ger40 bullishthe ger40 indecie broke a strong area on resistance 23 jan 2024, came back to retest on 31st and again13th -14th feb 2024. area 16800.s has turned in to a strong support area. and the current bullish candle shows there is lot of buying entering the markets
DAX Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 15/02/2024In the higher time frame, it looks like we started a new upward cycle from the October low. This means the wave ((2)) low is in after an expanded flat. The alternative scenario assumes a wave (2) low of a lower degree. This results in two possibilities: we are now working on a wave ((3)) or we are close to finishing a wave ((1)).
SHORT IDEAAnticipating a continuation lower during this session.
Annotations and anticipated key levels made in the chart for partials and potential targets.
Once the stop level of 16934 level is breached, the idea is invalidated and will be on the sidelines for a new opportunity.
As usual, manage risk appropriately and conserve capital.
GER30 H4 | Bullish breakoutGER30 is on an uptrend and could break the overlap resistance and rise to take profit level.
Buy entry is at 16887.34 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 16805.33 which is an overlap support level.
Take profit is at 17063.79 is the swing-high resistance level.
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