Weekly Forex Outlook Sun.April.6.2025 - Fri.April.11.2025Like and Comments would be appreciated :D Not Financial Advice, Just my outlook/opinion
DOWUSD trade ideas
Basic market concept EX1Basic Market Concepts are essentially market examples of the Market Cycle.
Putting it into simple context can help traders know when the market will be ranging (horizontally), where the support and resistance zones are and see how market behavior looks like.
DOW testing long term trend lineTrendline is a support...Dow is testing it as I type,,If it holds well and good..But I dont think it will hold..There is more pain...trendline break will be confirmation.
DJI - Rising Wedge + Double TopDJI showing a rising wedge which is a bearish pattern on this Daily chart
Also right before the prior down movement is a double top in red
Breakdown further out of this rising wedge pattern
US30 MELTDOWN! – 07/04/25🔥 US30 MELTDOWN! – April 7, 2025 🔥
📉 Historic Drop: Dow Jones tanks nearly 3,000 points in just days, crashing through all major support levels!
📉 Low Tagged: Price wicked into the 36,743 support zone before catching a small bounce.
🧠 What’s Happening?
This looks like panic selling—likely triggered by macroeconomic data or unexpected news. Volume is up, and structure is clearly broken.
Last Drop Before The BounceDow has completed ABC (Wave 4). Should resume downtrend in US session to 36k or just below. The market will then likely consolidate before begin a large move upside retracement over the coming week.
check the trendIt is expected that a trend change will form within the current support area and we will witness the start of the upward trend.
If the index breaks through the support area, the downtrend will continue until the next support area.
Bearish MovementThere is currently a huge dragon fly doji that might change to a hammer candle, cause a small bullish movement to 37706.55 where there is a gap before continuing downwards to 32411.88
Reversal or Continuation? US30 Tests Major SupportThe US30 is testing a pivotal multi-year trendline following an aggressive breakdown from its early 2025 highs. After months of consistent distribution near the 42,000–44,000 range, price capitulated with a steep selloff, driving the index down toward the 37,000 level. This area aligns closely with the long-term trendline dating back to late 2023 and marks the lower boundary of the broader structural expansion.
The current reaction appears to be forming at a potential inflection point, as price hovers around the lower bounds of its macro range. The steep angle of descent suggests overextension, with momentum temporarily outpacing rational valuation zones. Meanwhile, a notable high-volume cluster from prior activity remains situated between 41,500 and 42,000 — an area likely to attract price in the event of a technical retracement.
If buyers begin stepping in at this historically respected trendline, the market could stage a multi-week recovery, targeting this upper resistance zone. However, failure to stabilize here risks further downside, potentially exposing the market to deeper corrections toward 35,000 or lower. All eyes now turn to this structural juncture as price teeters between oversold conditions and critical support.
Bear Market Inbound!What a week, two days of plunge and the Dow sits below where Tariff Trump won.
World markets were ripe for this situation, waiting for the trigger... the trigger no doubt was Trump.
The charts do not lie, the news does not matter as much as price action, the question now is where we bottom for a while and bounce...any rally is to be sold.
Don't try and catch a falling knife, but be very careful shorting here at this point, expect a bottom this week.
Expect further selling Monday to a degree, but we are at a bottom fishing level.
Gold and especially silver were clobbered Thursday and Friday, we expected this earlier in the week and warned of toppy price action on our gold update. PM's are in a wave 4 down sideways move and next comes minor wave 5 up...long term holders have little to worry about...any pullback is a buying opportunity...$3000 gold is major support.
Appreciate a thumbs up...God Bless you all and good trading!
Dow Jones Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)📊 Dow Jones Intermediate Trend Analysis (Elliott Wave + AO + Volume)
🌀 Elliott Wave Interpretation
The chart reflects a clear Elliott Wave count from the post-COVID low:
Wave I and Wave II are well-established.
Wave III is now completed, accompanied by a peak in AO — which aligns with classical Elliott theory where AO typically peaks during the 3rd wave, showing strong momentum.
Wave IV is currently unfolding.
📉 Wave IV Characteristics (Ongoing Phase)
Wave IV is expected to be complex — commonly forming:
Triangles (contracting or expanding),
Flats,
Double/triple threes.
It is likely to consume time and generate sideways or choppy price action.
Volumes, interestingly, are peaking again, which often occurs toward the end of Wave IV due to emotional volatility and retail panic activity.
🔮 Two Probable Scenarios for Wave IV Completion:
Scenario 1 (Shallow Correction):
Target Zone: ~37,400
This zone coincides with the 0.382–0.5 Fibonacci retracement levels from Wave III.
Would reflect a simple flat or sharp zigzag structure.
Scenario 2 (Deeper Correction):
Target Zone: ~34,100
Corresponds to the lower support band with possible spike to 32,988 (FINAL FIB Support).
May occur if external macroeconomic or geopolitical triggers cause extended selling.
📈 Post Wave IV – Projection for Wave V
Once Wave IV completes:
Wave V is expected to resume the larger bullish cycle.
Price target: New all-time highs, possibly towards the upper blue resistance trendline (~46,000+).
Watch for bullish confirmation with AO flipping and price breaking above Wave IV consolidation highs. before completing 4th wave it always create complex patterns. we need to watch the patterns and it is getting completing before move to 5th wave.
🔍 AO (Awesome Oscillator) Insights
AO peak confirms Wave III completion.
Negative divergence between AO and price also supports Wave V capping out, indicating exhaustion of upward momentum.
AO is now retracing — likely bottoming during the end of Wave IV.
🔊 Volume Behavior
Volume peaked at the end of Wave III — a common occurrence.
Now rising again near Wave IV completion – this suggests:
Panic selling,
Possible final shakeout before market stabilizes for Wave V.
Monitor for volume drop-off during Wave V's beginning – a classic signature of reduced fear and return of trend stability.
🔒 Critical Support & Resistance Levels
Level Description
37,400 Scenario 1 target / shallow correction
34,100 Scenario 2 deeper correction target
32,988 Final strong support (Fib extension)
46,000+ Potential Wave V high / upper trendline
📌 Conclusion
The intermediate trend is corrective, within a larger bullish framework.
Wave IV is currently playing out and might end soon.
Watch key support zones (37,400 and 34,100) for potential reversal setups.
Once confirmed, Wave V rally could offer significant upside opportunities.
Remain cautious during this volatile consolidation and validate reversal signs before positioning.
📜 Disclaimer
⚠️ This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is based on technical chart interpretation (Elliott Wave Theory, volume, AO) and does not constitute investment advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involves significant risk, including the risk of losing your capital. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
The Dow Jones 100 Year Rising WedgePeople lie. The news lies. But the CHARTS DON"T LIE.
This is a 100 year rising wedge pattern that is occurring on the DJI.
Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, maybe not for another 50 years,
but this pattern will break to the downside.
As of now, a return to the original trendline is HIGHLY LIKELY.
NO FEAR, THIS IS OUT OF LOVE.
EYES OPEN.
Repeat of covid manipulation - sells to 34000 on US30.Breakdown of where US30 could be heading in the short team but also the long term.
US30 Trade Update – 04/04/2025🚨 US30 Trade Update – 04/04/2025 🚨
📉 US30 Sell-Off Intensifies!
The Dow Jones has now broken below 41,000 and is approaching the critical support at 40,063. Bears are in full control, and if this level fails, we could see a test of 39,279 next.
🔍 Key Observations:
✅ Major rejection at 42,359 resistance
✅ Strong bearish momentum breaking 41,000
🔻 Next Major Support: 40,063 → 39,279
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔹 Short below 40,063 → Target 39,279
🔹 Look for bounce signs at 40,063 for potential reversal
🔹 Long only if price reclaims 40,600+
⚠️ Watch for a reaction at 40,063—this level could determine the next major move.
check the trendIt is expected that the trend will change within the current support area and we will see the beginning of the upward trend. Otherwise, the continuation of the downward trend is likely with the breakdown of the current support area.
US30 Testing Major Demand Zone – Reversal Incoming?🔎 Market Overview:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) has dropped into a strong demand zone (41,200 - 41,350), which has historically acted as a major support area. Will buyers step in for a rebound, or will we see further decline?
🔹 Key Resistance Levels: 41,932 | 42,605
🔹 Current Price: 41,234
🔹 Key Support Levels: 41,347 (demand zone) | 41,200
📉 Recent Price Action:
1️⃣ Strong Sell-Off into Demand Zone:
After testing resistance at 41,932, US30 faced heavy selling pressure.
Price has now entered a high-volume support area (41,200 - 41,350).
2️⃣ Potential Reversal Setup:
If buyers hold this zone, we could see a bullish push back to 41,932 (first resistance).
A breakout above 41,932 could open the door for a move to 42,600+.
3️⃣ Breakdown Scenario:
If 41,200 breaks, expect further downside towards 40,800 - 40,500.
This would confirm a bearish continuation pattern.
📊 Trade Plan:
📍 Bullish Setup:
🔹 Look for bullish confirmation in the 41,200 - 41,350 zone.
🔹 A strong bounce could provide an entry targeting 41,932 and 42,600.
📍 Bearish Setup:
🔹 If price fails to hold 41,200, a short opportunity exists targeting 40,800 - 40,500.
🔹 Wait for a clean break and retest of 41,200 before shorting.
🔥 Will US30 bounce back from this demand zone, or will we see further drops? Comment your thoughts below! 👇
📊 Like & Follow for more trade ideas! 🚀
#US30 #DOWJONES #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #DayTrading #Forex #SupplyAndDemand
Dow Jones Instant AnalysisAt the intersection of the midline of the two ascending and descending channels, there is a possibility of a short-term upward price reversal.
Trade Idea : US30 Short ( SELL LIMIT )Technical Analysis
1. Daily Chart:
• Trend: The price has been in an uptrend but is showing signs of exhaustion.
• MACD: Deep in negative territory (-311.308 & -377.356), confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI: 44.24, indicating weak momentum and room for further downside.
• Key Resistance: 42,890
• Key Support: 41,000
2. 15-Minute Chart:
• Trend: The price has broken below a consolidation zone.
• MACD: Bullish but fading, suggesting exhaustion of upward movement.
• RSI: 48.21, showing indecision but no strong bullish strength.
• Structure: Lower highs and lower lows forming, indicating a potential breakdown.
3. 3-Minute Chart:
• Price Action: Weak bounces and inability to sustain higher prices.
• MACD: Negative and declining, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
• RSI: 41.77, approaching oversold but not yet at extreme levels.
Fundamental Analysis
• Macro Risks:
• Potential market correction after extended bullish trends.
• Economic uncertainty and possible rate hike expectations could pressure equities.
• US Market Conditions:
• Upcoming data releases or Fed commentary could increase volatility and favor bearish moves.
Trade Execution
• Entry: 41,950
• Stop Loss (SL): 42,250 (300-point stop)
• Take Profit (TP): 41,350 (600-point target)
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR): 2:1 FUSIONMARKETS:US30
US30 DOW-JONESThe disloyal me went into US30 charts because the US100 one had so much for me, I couldn't focus so I had to run away. But, for now we will be observing, the highlighted low, because the daily looks like the chart is retracing to pump higher again, same time small timeframe says that we are about to sell for sometime, hence instead of trading we will be observing. Observing. I will Drop a video about the charts later on. Happy Trading
US30 Trade Update – 02/04/2025 🚨 US30 Trade Update – 02/04/2025 🚨
📊 Market Structure & Key Levels
US30 is consolidating around 41,937, struggling to break above 42,075. Bulls need strong momentum to push through resistance, while bears are watching for rejections.
🔍 Key Observations:
✅ Holding Above 41,749 Support
✅ Short-Term Range Between 41,749 - 42,075
🔻 Key Resistance Above: 42,359 → 42,787
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔹 Long above 42,075 → Target 42,359 - 42,787
🔻 Short below 41,749 → Target 41,300 - 41,261
⚠️ Sideways price action = Wait for clear breakout!
Trade Idea: US30 Long ( BUY STOP )
Technical Analysis:
1. Daily Chart:
• US30 is in a pullback phase after a strong uptrend.
• The MACD is negative, but price is nearing key support, signaling a potential reversal.
• The RSI is at 43.74, close to oversold territory, indicating limited downside risk.
2. 15-Minute Chart:
• The MACD is strongly positive, confirming short-term bullish momentum.
• A strong bounce from recent lows suggests buyers are stepping in.
• The RSI is 55.40, indicating neutral momentum with room to push higher.
3. 3-Minute Chart:
• The MACD is slightly negative, but showing signs of bottoming out.
• RSI is 49.62, neutral but ready to turn up.
• Price is consolidating after a strong move up, suggesting a continuation higher.
Fundamental Analysis:
• The Dow Jones (US30) has recently rebounded from key support levels, aligning with a strong US economy and moderate Fed policies supporting equity markets.
• Global economic conditions remain stable, and institutional buyers are likely stepping in at this level.
⸻
Trade Execution:
• Entry: 41,900 (Confirmation of bullish momentum after consolidation)
• Stop-Loss (SL): 41,750 (Below recent low, protecting against further downside)
• Take-Profit (TP): 42,250 (Targeting recent resistance, maintaining a 2:1 RRR) FUSIONMARKETS:US30
