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Hong Kong Cash Index / Hong Kong Dollar

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HKCHKD trade ideas

Hang Seng.....Trading within a flag!Hello Traders, Hang Seng has traded in a narrow range of 328 point past week! It shows an „inside-candle“! The level of the possible wave ((iv)) area of 27505 is key! (all data at weekly, left-hand chart) On the daily chart (middle chart) you will notice, that HS is trading within the „bearish-flag“, but still rising to the middle line of it! A break of this line, will open the door to 294xx area. More bullish potential exist. Friday's candle closed bearish, and it could be, that HS will decline to the lower boundary of it! Well; we will see! At the hourly chart we observe the green trend line, that HS has touched multiple times since May 11th! A break of this line to the downside opens the door to a gap-close and 28160-28000 area, while a break o the level of 28600 opens the door to 28900 zone! Have a great weekend.... Ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
1
Hang Seng.....More trouble ahead?Hello Traders, Hang Seng declined past week and my bearish forecst indeed plays out! The target area of 27600-27500 is close to be achieve. Overall to speak,it is possible, that the correction is not done to the downside and it could decline to 27210 area. This level would be the 0.618 Fibonacci of the possible wave and it is the minimum retracement for a wave y. If so to come, wave ((iv)) should end here! But, why do I think so? Well, the upmove from the possible wave ((iv)) area at 27505 looks like a „three-up“ and this would mean it is corrective! One more reason is, that the pattern could be placed into a „bearish-flag“! That means, a break of 27718 opens the door to 27505 and below to the mentioned area with more bearish potential ahead! One target should range at 25936, were wave (w)=(y)! For the bullish view it needs a break of the 29405 area to clear the bullish view. Have a great weekend.... Ruebennase Feel free to ask anytime. Tell me your thoughts! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hang Seng.....Sideways ranging market?Hello Traders, Hang Seng has advanced 350 this week, but the progress is not an impulse yet to my view! The overlapping structure suggest a corrective setup which could go on in the coming week. A rise above ~28900 area on a daily close is needed to establish a new uptrend. A decline below the level of 28260 area would favor a „sideways range market“ and a break of this level on a daily close could open the door to ~27600-27500 area. Until then, I would see a break of one or the other level and wait for more clear pattern and structure! Have a great Sunday and a great week..... Ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hang Seng.....Island-gap! Hello Traders, at my analysis on April 19, I wrote following: „I like to see a „break“ of the high's at 29101 and 29152 on an hourly basis at minimum! Strong volume to the upside would strengthen the bullish view.“ Hang Seng broke above this area, but failed to exceed to the mentioned area. It just touched the 29388 level and reversed. Further I wrote: „A rise above 29152 on a daily close open the door to 29600 area. If this move occurs, a could be a wave „b“, `cause the decline from the possible wave ((iii)) high at 31183 looks like a „three-down“! The weakness for HS was clear to observe and some hours after advancing the 29388 area, it creates an „Island-gap“ (bearish sign) to the opening session on April 30. Clear to see is, that the move from the 27505 low on March 25 shows overlapping waves, means a corrective structure. So, it won't surprise me, if HS will show further weakness in the coming hours, maybe days. As I often wrote in the past, I would wait for more clear structure to buy HS. One argument could be a rise above the 29450-29592 area, the possible wave (b) high, and step into the market with a „Stopp-buy“ order! A decline to 29287 area should open the door to the possible wave (c) of ((iv)) low. In this case, the count needs to be re-adjusted! Have a great Sunday..... Ruebennnase Feel free to ask or comment1 Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hang Seng.....Be patient!Hello Traders, at my latter analysis I wrote this: „What does it mean for short term traders? I like to see a „break“ of the high's at 29101 and 29152 on an hourly basis at minimum! Strong volume to the upside would strengthen the bullish view.“ It did not happen and HS breaks below the rising trend line, blue. This move was not expected by myself. Hang Seng has made a low at 28274 and is rising since. I have re-adjusted the trend line and a break to the downside could open the door to 28274 again. The level to watch is the possible wave ((iv)) low at 27505. A rise above 29152 on a daily close open the door to -+29600 area. If this move occurs, a could be a wave „b“, `cause the decline from the possible wave ((iii)) high at 31183 looks like a „three-down“! Anyway, we will wait and see what should be next for Hang Seng. Have a great week..... Ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
2
Hang Seng.....Hammer candle plays out!Hello Traders, Hang Seng has made a low at 27505 on March 25 and has risen since ~ 1200 points. This move is not a clear impulse, but as long as this low is valid my view is focused on higher price on a shorthand! At the 30-minute chart you will observe the rising trend line, blue that has been touched 3-times in at last week's trading. The more often a trend line was touched, as higher is the acceptance of the one by markets participants. But what caught my eye is the fact, that there have been 3 long „bear“ candles labeled with 1-2-3. These bearish attacks occur at the mid-term trend line that connects the low on September 25 and October 30! Maybe some traders have no interest to see HS above that levels? What does it mean for short term traders? I like to see a „break“ of the high's at 29101 and 29152 on an hourly basis at minimum! Strong volume to the upside would strengthen the bullish view. On the downside a break of the possible wave ((iv)) low could bring more bearish view into play. Have a great Sunday.... Ruebennase Feel free to ask anytime! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
1
Hang Seng.....Typicall reversal pattern!Hello Traders, Hang Seng topped on the week of February 16 at 31183 (intraday high) and shows a corrective setback to 27505 (intraday low) on March 27. Closing low was at 28336! Note this important level. The following candle is a „bullish-engulfing“, a good buying chance and a possible reversal in trend has occurred! The daily chart shows a typical reversal pattern. Price declined to the possible wave ((iv)) ow with a gap-down, but closed the day in positive territory. The next day opened with a gap-up, what is a bullish sign and since, price has risen to 28938. So the level to watch is at 27505! In the bullish case, HS will rise to 29575 are in the coming days, as long as the low at 28043 is valid. Declining below this area would open the door to 27505 and a break of it, will bring more bearish potential into focus. Have a great Easter weekend.... Ruebennase Feel free to ask anytime! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
1
Are we in a bear market yet ?I love reading the news , in fact I do it daily either from the TV at night or from online news portal. But, I also sieve out the noises from the crowd and that is so important as it can whack your emotions into a roller coaster and cause undue stress, panick attack and cause you to take illogical decisions, like selling when there is a draw down. A bear market in technical terms mean it has drop 20% or more from the peak in its share price. So, we look at HSI, we are currently less than 10% fall only. And it is still in the bullish trend. One thing I have learnt the hard way is not to outsmart the market by predicting what moves it will make. By that, I mean assuming it is going to break down from the bullish trend line and shorting , hoping to get in at a higher price and maximise profits. The question is ;WHAT IF it does not break down and reverse the trend instead ? With a few trades like this, you could easily burn your portfolio and sets you in a negative state, which is what we do not want. So how ? JUST WAIT for the market to tell you what it is going to do. If it breaks down the support of 28, 273, that will be pretty convincing to take a short if I want to. (You always have a choice). Then, the price may tumble to say 26,751 and rebound or continue to break down further (as shown by the red arrows in the chart) If someone puts a knife at my neck and asked me to take a bet, I would predict it is going to be bullish in the medium to long term with a profit target of 32,000 or more. How long will it takes to reach there ? I dunno. Will it reach there ? I also dunno . All I know is to stay calm, trade what you see and see what you trade.
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
2
Hang Seng.....Back to a wave 4 level! And now?Hello Traders, Hang Seng made a high on February 16 at 31183 with an intraday peak and on 30644.74 on a closing basis. Since then, HS has declined to new lows at 28326 (intraday) and 28497.39 on a closing price today! Price have declined to a wave ((iv)) level and this is often a target for a corrective setback! So, on a short term view, it could be, that we have seen a first leg of a decline that has ended today. On the hourly chart, you will take notice of the „Hammer-candle“, a reversal-candle as it's best! As long as the low of this candle (@ 28376.22) is valid it is possible for HS to rise higher in the coming hours. One area for that reversal should be the high and the „kick-off“ of the sell-off candle today, at 28571.05! Notice, that traders who sold HS at this level have a high interest to hold price below that level. So it could be a „hard fight“ ahead in the coming hours for that level! On the other hand. Any decline below today's low at 28376 would bring a lower price in the coming hours, `cause the best sell-signal is a failed buy-signal! A first stop could be at 28130 area and below to 277xx levels. Only an advance above the possible wave (c) high at 29596 could clear the view for the bulls. Have a great week..... Ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment! Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase