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Hong Kong Cash Index / Hong Kong Dollar

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HKCHKD trade ideas

Hang Seng.... A silver lining?Hello Traders, today Hang Seng gaped to the upside, closed it immediately and run up to a close @25392! It left a green daily candle at chart, which could give more buying arguments in the coming days. If this, so it will occur, is just countertrend? Let`s check the chart! As I mentioned at my past analysis, a target range for HS could be around the 25000 area, where wave a=c! That`s what occurs during the session on March 09! Today`s bounce could be a first hint, that HS will countertrend the first leg down. So, as long as the low @ 24948 (intraday low) and 25040 (closing price) are valid we check the upside potential. Note the open gap, left by trading on March 06-09; 26146-25134). This gap could be filled during the coming sessions, but this is not required! From a candlestick-pattern, we probably can argue for a „morning-star“, created by the latter three candles at the chart. If so, HS will retrace a good portion of the decline. Note the open gap`s at the chart (February 24 and 21)! Note the red trendline @ 25976, what is resistance area! On the other hand. Any decline below Friday`s low @ 25040 (closing price) could open the door to more selling pressure and another leg of panic! As before! I recommend you to let hands of the market. Don`t ruin your trading accounts. This is exactly what could happen at these days! Have a great week... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Fear cannot block my way up! HSI CALL! HSI only breaks the previous bottom a little bit while the US market drops 15% and alot more around the globe! another round of 4 trillion money printing from China and another round of rate dropping coming soon from the Fed will eventually return the whole. Here, from the chart, Weekly! assume BOLD GREEN C = 1.618A and BOLD BLUE 5 = (1 to 3) x 1.618 light blue is wave 12345 where 5 is in bold blue which is the points from 1-3 times 1.618 both target are around HSI 32800 which is about 7000 points above current level. There'll be a time study idea indicating a top on OCT(probably 29th like the old date) this year.
TVC:HSILong
by qero
Hang Seng...More Bears to come?Hello Traders, Hang Seng had one more down-week and closed @ 26146.7, after a weekly low of 26038.4! From a candlestick analysis, there is a „bullish-inverted-hammer“ to observe! But handle this pattern with patience! At the weekly chart, you will observe that the decline from the possible wave „z“ high @29174.9 looks not as done. So the first leg of the decline could be a wave „a“ and the countertrend that followed a wave „b“ that ended @ 28055.6. So the second leg down is a wave „c“ that retraced a 0.618 Fibonacci of wave „a“ what is in rare cases all of the declines, but this is not required! So a common target range for HS if it drops below Friday`s low @ 26038.4 is wave equality @ 25032, where wave „a“=“c“! Such behavior would occur with a drop below the lower boundary of the possible triangle idea I mentioned at my last analysis! At the daily chart, there is to notice, that HS reversed at the 0.382 Fiboacco of the decline from 28055-25989, implying more selling pressure ahead. Notice the technical information by checking out the STOCH (5,3,3), reversing at the 50% level, what is the border from bear to bull phase; and MACD, reversing downwards too! So, if HS is breaking below Monday`s low (March 2) @ 25989, the odds are to favor that another leg of selling period is next, could bring the index down to wave equality @ 25026. Such behavior would make some of my counts invalid and I need to adjust the counts! For the bullish view, HS needs to break above the high @ 26788 (0.382 Fibonacci ) ion a closing basis with massive volume and a daily close at minimum. Have a great weekend.... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
The last stand for Hang SengAs the coronavirus outbreak plaques the global markets, Chinese equities have posted an optimistic V-shaped recovery but we've yet to see similar bullish sentiments from the H-shares. With the market testing the critical 26000 support again over the past week, the price actions looks like buyers are struggling to defend the 26000 level. Times are critical as a break below the 26000 support would see a breach of the key trendline support and complete the head and shoulders pattern. I am keeping my eyes peeled.
TVC:HSI
by Ian15
1
IMF to the rescue....Read here Nobody can really tell you the real reason why a stock/index is going up or down for a specific reason. And if that reason seems plausible, it is difficult to prove it as well. Why then do traders (humans) need to know the answers ? Call it the human curiosity or fear of the unknown. Be it going uptrend or downtrend, they need a reason to back it up. Like the recent Fed interest rate , that has been attributed to the stock market performance. So , each time the Fed lower interest rate and the stock market respond in kind, then the belief becomes stronger over time. The scary part is trawling through the internet , researching and studying and analysing the reasons and fail to pull the trigger. Like yesterday's 1000 point DJI up move. Many traders were still speculating if it is a dead cat bounce or a V-shape recovery and choose to wait for confirmation. And the result was a missed opportunity. As traders, we must have the courage to pull the trigger and have equal guts to face the consequences if proven wrong. We have stop loss to protect us. If we constantly shun from pulling trigger and keep on waiting till the coast is clear, we might missed many boats. And then, we regretted and start to chase high price and suffered a pullback, and was stopped out. Then , we concluded the market was rigged, we were not good, swear never to come back to trade again ( I lost count of that), etc. This independent act of pulling the trigger is crucial as a trader. If you are constantly relying on someone's trade calls, believing there must be something amiss, need more confirmation , then you can trade in micro lots where the chance of failure is reduced to the maximum. That means, if you are wrong, your financial loss is bearable. Do this enough times, you would improve your confidence and get better and better. I have followers who shared with me that they used to follow a certain author but some of their calls were not good so they switch. If that is the reason, I bet any authors would have his fair share of wrong calls. That is not how winning is made in the market. Most made by the probability of wins over the losses. Out of 10 trades, they might win 4 trades and lose 6 trades. It might appear they are not good since they lose more trades than win. But more importantly, when they win , they win double the rewards over the risk. That means the risks is small and contained while the profits/win are double or tripled. So 4 wins result can be a positive out of the total 10 trades. Accuracy of trade calls can be sharpened over time but the concept of win/loss ratio is key as this builds the winning formula. Thus, jumping from one author to author may not be the solution , in fact , it can mislead or confuse you as they may use different indicators or way of looking at the chart. It is like reaching the end goal but the journey to reach it can be varied. No right or wrong. Some are well versed in moving averages while others like Bollinger Bands and others swear by RSI or MACD. Discover for yourself over time what trading styles suits you and build your success from there! Rome is not build in a day so have patience and clock in the 10,000 hours and you will and can surpass your cyber-mentors!
TVC:HSILong
by dchua1969
Hong Kong Stock Index (Dead Cat Bounce)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (3 March 2020) We are in the rebound mode and it will likely take some time. HSI is in the grind support region and it can climb up slowly. 26,800 shall be reachable, soon. But I see the whole thing as a dead-cat bounce phenomenon. Whatever method you use if you do not follow the proper rule of risk management, it will have detrimental effects on your account. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
OANDA:HK33HKD
by SonicDeejay
Hang Seng...Sideways within a Triangle structure!?Hello Traders, as to observe at the weekly chart Hang Seng is moving, more or less, in a sideways trading range, that is developing between the possible wave ((ii)) or (a) high @ 30280 and the low @ 24540! This is indicating a flat-pattern or at least a „Triangle-pattern“. The latter one, which I have idealized at chart, gives us a forecast of what could be next to come. While this week's move did not look complete, it is possible that HS needs some more down-up sequences to complete the structure within a wave (d) leg of the triangle. If so to come, HS will decline lower, but close above the wave (b) low @ 24899.90 level. After this target area will be achieved, the next move would occur to the upside within a wave (d). Both moves have to close below there previous waves. Overall, a period of sideways moving market is ahead of us. As you know, a triangle pattern only occurs in a wave „4“ or „b“ or „x“ position and it marks the final sequence before a sharp move to the opposite side of the wave „e“ top/low occurs! The important level for the triangle structure is the level of 24899. Any drop below this area would void the triangle idea! As always, a lot of alternate counts do exist and we will wait `til the chart pattern tell us a clear story of what could be next! Have a great weekend... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
What happened when more money is injected into markets ?Take a look at this 3 line charts - SHCOMP, CN50 and HSI respectively. When 1.2 trillion yuan were injected into the markets, the 3 indices did a V shaped recovery almost instantly! Currently, SHCOMP is in the lead, followed closely by CN50 and HSI with a fairly strong pullback. The whole world is now watching how China central government will react on its monetary policies as being the world's 2nd largest economy, its action or inaction will have a severe impact on the global economy. The Chinese are the world's largest spenders when they travel and many hotels, restaurants, theme parks even properties are suffering (with some bemoaning they can only withstand for 3 months before they closed shops). This black swan event caught many by surprise and its pervasive and seemingly difficult to control has kept many world's leaders sleepless night. If you are like me ,a long term investor of China and buy into the China story of it overtaking US in time to come, already with its technologies, this drop is a good opportunity to buy the indices or individual companies at a cheaper price. We have yet to really see the impact of how these markets will be until the Q1 2020 GDP results are released. Many analysts are hoping this epidemic be contained and number of cases begin to reduce so that business can return to normal. There are many lessons that we can learn from this event 1. How integrated and connected the global world has become and the importance of collaborating with one another to fight a common battle 2. Business Continuity Plan - When this event is over, I think more meetings will be held in boardroom to discuss how to prevent a disaster like this again. Eg. when business are overly concentrated in China, with 60-70% revenue generating from it will suffer drastically. Other examples include the businesses that depend on China tourism - Cambodia casino , overseas hotels, restaurants, luxury properties, etc 3. Emerging opportunities - How the tech giants like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent and others are leveraging on AI to help combat some of the challenges they faced in this crisis. Will this technology become an emerging trend that can be scale up in the future ? Next, working from home - a yet to catch on concept in Asia, especially China - will it be the catalyst for change in the traditional 9 to 5 working environment ? If the government support this policy, then employees need to purchase properties that is near to subway or close proximity to their offices thus reducing on hefty mortgage loan. Working from home also introduce a whole set of new changes such as video conferencing, screen sharing, encryption of files sharing,etc. We can take a leaf from the European countries and adopt this work from home culture. In short, as trader and investor, we must remain stay open to opportunities and not miss the woods by focusing too much on the trees within.
TVC:HSI
by dchua1969
Hang Seng...Both interpretations are valid!Hello Traders, Hang Seng opened today @ 26479.9 and reversed strongly to the upside, as it did yesterday. Yesterday`s candle was a „fake candle“, sending all Bulls to the wrong side of trading. Is today`s behavior the same? Today`s open and daily low was below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracements (@ 26554), daily close was well above ( 26696.5) So, as long as today`s long is valid the focus is to the upside on a very short term look. A first target could be the open gap, left by trading on 22.-24. February (27308-27105)! This would close the open gap and send the bearish „Island-gap“ (marked with the blue dotted arrows) and is close to the 0.618 Fibo from 26145-28055! While no clear wave structure, to my view, is to watch, we have the two counts at hand as labeled at the graph at the right hand. A wave (i) -(ii)) or a wave „a“-“b“ (in progress) and a wave „c“ to come to complete wave (ii)! Note that the arrows at chart are just a notice for a directional call! At the left-hand chart you will notice, that the bullish count is valid too, but it looks for now just as a part of a flat correction that is maybe not done at all. So the coming two sessions will be important for the next big move! Stay tuned for the next update and market behavior. Have a great week... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hong Kong Stock Index (Fire In The Hole!!!)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (21 FEB 2020) Did you read our Bullish call to 28K level previously? Well. It is done and dusted. We are in a pullback phase and it is gaining momentum. I expect it can go down further first but Please be cautious as well. 26,700-27,000 region can act be as some strong support or sort. Whatever method you use if you do not follow the proper rule of risk management, it will have detrimental effects on your account. Feel Free to "Follow", press "LIKE" "Comment". Legal Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange or CFD on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor. DISCLAIMER: Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information discussed in this presentation or linked to from this presentation are provided as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. Sonicr Mastery Team does not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
OANDA:HK33HKDShort
by SonicDeejay
Hang Seng...Take what you prefere!Hello Traders, 28000 area is hard resistance for Hang Seng. It failed to exceed the high of 27771 on February 18 and tumbled lower for the remainder of the week. It closed an open gap, left by trading on February 10-11! One more open gap is from 26786-27174 from February 5-6! At the bearish count, this open gap will be closed for HS and the index is ready to decline within a wave „3“to fresh multiweek lows. A good indication for this interpretation is the drop below the lower boundary of the rising trend channel, drawn at the right-hand corner chart. The bullish idea could close this gap too, but after it will do so, HS will reverse and should advance to fresh new high`s within a wave „3“! Here, a good hint for this idea is the advance above that past high at 27959 (closing, blue arrow) from the trading on February 17! A daily close below this level is needed to support this idea! Have a great weekend.... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Downward Trend ConfirmedIts pretty obvious that HSI is in a downward channel, after failling to hold 28000 level. And with US stocks crashing on Friday, HSI is destined to open at an extremely low level on Monday. So we have to see if HSI drops to the lower end of the big negative channel. Of course I am not saying HSI would be bullish, but its really possible to see some rebound to the higher side of the channel within 1-2 days. The short term target price would probably be @27330ish level. But In a longer time frame(1 week maybe?) We might see HSI testing support line @26741. If that doesn't hold, prepare for your puts! GL to all Ty
TVC:HSI
by hweikang0828
Hang Seng....28020-28055 is resistanceHello Traders, Hang Seng advanced to the middle boundary of the trend channel and reversed sharply today. While the move from 26144 – 28055 closed below the 0.618 Fibonacci (@28017) it could be all of it and maybe countertrend (three-waves)! If so to come, the next move is to the downside, and a close of the open gap from 27241-27514) could be the next level to achieve. Note that there is one more open gap, left by the trading on February 5-6! So more bearish potential exists. On the other hand. Any rise above the high of the candle on February 17 (@ 28055; 0.618 Fibo and middle boundary of the tc)) on a closing basis could open the door to 28528 (0.786 Fibonacci)! If the bearish count plays out in the coming days and weeks ahead, we possibly have seen today`s start of a wave „3“! Means, a lot of trouble to come for HS! Have a great day.... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase