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HKCHKD trade ideas

Hang Seng...Countertrend! Wave 4 underway!Hello Traders, Hang Seng may make a bottom within a wave 3 of Minor degree @ 21709. the developing move is countertrend within a wave of the same degree. If so, a target range for HS could be around the wave (iv) high @ 23631 or a@ 23767, what is the 0.382 Fibonacci of the wave 3 decline. Another target area is around 24586 levels. Note at the lower graph how the Non-confirmation at STOCH played out well (in this case) and lead the way to a pullback. Once price will meet the cited target range, STOCH will be at or above overbought level and should show the start of the next wave decline. I have put the alternate count below the chart to show even another way of view. But this is to me an idea of lesser confidence. For the bearish view is nice to know, that there is an open gap by the trading of Mid-may in 2017 @19407. Gap often acts like a magnet! I will update the chart asap. Have a great weekend and stay healthy. Protect yourself from the Corona-virus! Best wishes.... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hang Seng Index may be bearish in coming 6 monthsWhen checking the Hang Seng Index HSI monthly chart, you can see the HSI has finished the wave 1 to 5 and starts to go from wave A - C. HSI is now testing the strong resistance at aound 29,000 to 29,100. If this resistance cannot be breakthrough, it is likely that HSI will start to go in wave C. According to the Fib, the first target will be 22843 which is 0.5 level of Fib extension. If the bearish force won't stop at this point, it may test the 0.68 level, that means 20331.
HSI:HSIShort
by ChrisWOW
Hang Seng...Wave "3" of "C" done?Hello Traders, as I mentioned per my last analysis, Hang Seng declined into the target-range of ~21337 area (intraday low @ 21139) and reversed. It has met the green rectangle I have drawn at chart as a possible target area! At the low @ 21139, waves ((C))=((A))! So, a first leg (?) of decline could be done and a recovery short term might be underway. Where are the targets for this view! Let`s check it out! Based on the monthly timeframe, there is no resistance at chart, `cause this month's candle was a bearish one with not one level to call as a resistance zone. The market has been sold-off in a manner, never seen before! As to note at the weekly chart, the divergence between price and STOCH is clear to observe! This has been going on for quite a while now. More interesting to observe is the structure of the last leg down. It looks like not done, for now, so a possible countertrend might be underway. It could be a wave „4“! This possible wave „3“ of „C“ has expanded further than the FibExtension of 2! So, if this was wave „3“, a wave „4“ of the same degree is underway and should retrace a 0.382 Fibonacci of the wave „3“ decline. This ranges into the price territory of 23781. Depending on when and if this price range will be met, it would coincide with the middle line of the trend channel (dotted blue) and could be a favorable resistance level! More bullish potential exists! Note the open gap at this price level! Once this move is done, another leg of decline would bring HS to fresh new lows! While the daily chart, to my view, did not spot other wave patterns, I will focus my analysis at the weekly for the coming week. If something interesting happens or wave patterns will show a clear structure, I will update the chart asap! Have a great weekend and stay healthy. Protect yourself from the coronavirus! Best wishes.... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Hang Seng...London`s fog!Hello Traders, to count a chart is sometimes a challenge! You think you are on the right path most of the time and the picture seams cristal clear. Then, suddenly, some unexpected happens, and your view is like watching through London´s fog! This is how I feel now! The past two days, I try to figure out, what is going on with Hang Seng, and the bullish picture I had, has got some cracks. So while I am not sure about the big-picture, I want to approach the possible count in steps! So, let`s begin. Based on the monthly chart we are able to recognize that a „big-change“ of trend could be underway. The drop from the ATH @ 33484 shows a clear „wave-overlapping“ between a possible wave „I“ high and a possible wave „IV“, `cause it dropped into the price territory of wave „I“ what is a clear „knock-out“ of the Elliottwave rules. So the odds become greater, that a possible wave (I) or (A) of Supercycle-degree has ended at this point. The decline since `til now is a „three-down“which implies a corrective structure. From a Fibonacci view, a 0.382 level (@ 24771) was broken by the last leg of decline in the past week. Note that the weekly close was below this area, which is to me important to view! Measuring the „three-down, wave equality is achieved at 21336.7. So plenty of room to go downside! Based on the monthly chart, we need to get a close above this month candle high, what is @ 26805 and the candle must be „green“, i. e. bullish, to apply a short term change of trend! View the weekly chart we are able to observe a „divergence“ by the STOCH and price. Note, that STOCH did not change it`s declining trend to the upside, so, here too, there is much room to decline, (the green box shows the possible stopping range based on a monthly chart)! Again, measuring the last leg of decline from the possible wave ((B)) to Friday`s low, HS closed above the 1.618 Fib-Extension of a possible wave „Y“ of a „W“-X“-“Y“ or „A“-“B“-“C“ correction. Again, the obvious „support-range“ with the green rectangle! On the upside, there is much potential to close the open gap from 26146-25134. The daily chart shows a massive change of trend intraday, which should lead to the conclusion, that a first leg of „selling-panic“ has come to an end short term. As long as Friday`s low keeps valid, a possible area of advance could be at the 0.382 Fibo @ 25059, which is close to the open gap, based on the weekly view! More bullish recovery potential exists! Note, that STOCH has change the short-term trend to the upside and crosses its the signal line up! For this view, the low @ 24117.90 must be valid! Be patient, stay tuned... Have a great weekend... ruebennase
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
1
Hang Seng.... A silver lining?Hello Traders, today Hang Seng gaped to the upside, closed it immediately and run up to a close @25392! It left a green daily candle at chart, which could give more buying arguments in the coming days. If this, so it will occur, is just countertrend? Let`s check the chart! As I mentioned at my past analysis, a target range for HS could be around the 25000 area, where wave a=c! That`s what occurs during the session on March 09! Today`s bounce could be a first hint, that HS will countertrend the first leg down. So, as long as the low @ 24948 (intraday low) and 25040 (closing price) are valid we check the upside potential. Note the open gap, left by trading on March 06-09; 26146-25134). This gap could be filled during the coming sessions, but this is not required! From a candlestick-pattern, we probably can argue for a „morning-star“, created by the latter three candles at the chart. If so, HS will retrace a good portion of the decline. Note the open gap`s at the chart (February 24 and 21)! Note the red trendline @ 25976, what is resistance area! On the other hand. Any decline below Friday`s low @ 25040 (closing price) could open the door to more selling pressure and another leg of panic! As before! I recommend you to let hands of the market. Don`t ruin your trading accounts. This is exactly what could happen at these days! Have a great week... ruebennase Feel free to ask or comment.      Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
TVC:HSI
by ruebennase
Fear cannot block my way up! HSI CALL! HSI only breaks the previous bottom a little bit while the US market drops 15% and alot more around the globe! another round of 4 trillion money printing from China and another round of rate dropping coming soon from the Fed will eventually return the whole. Here, from the chart, Weekly! assume BOLD GREEN C = 1.618A and BOLD BLUE 5 = (1 to 3) x 1.618 light blue is wave 12345 where 5 is in bold blue which is the points from 1-3 times 1.618 both target are around HSI 32800 which is about 7000 points above current level. There'll be a time study idea indicating a top on OCT(probably 29th like the old date) this year.
TVC:HSILong
by qero