Came like a thief in the night: TRUMPCESSIONBearish continuation to my last post
Donny triggered it
that said im expecting price to drive lower from my red zone and to resist at the levels i think around the red price levels will it all be over
NDQUSD trade ideas
A BIGGER PICTURE OF US100 SHOWING A BREAKOUT!Take a look at the bigger picture of US100 from the monthly timeframe. We can understand the nature of price action that has occurred. We can see how price broke out of the rising channel leading to over 68% decline of the total gains made in the year 2024. This further awake traders mindset to whether there’s gonna be a further drop maybe upto a pullback support of 16426.4 or even below.
From the technical standpoint, we may expect -5% more drop before we begin to see some form of recovery.
NAS100 Technical Analysis🔹 Trend Overview:
Nas100 initially showed signs of recovery with some bullish momentum. However, in the last three days of the week, the market sentiment shifted, breaking key support zones at 19,880.00, 19,400.00, and 19,151.00. This drop was driven by growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and a more pessimistic inflation outlook.
🔹 Key Levels:
📈 Resistance: 19,400.00
📉 Support: 19,151.00 – If broken, price may drop further.
🔹 Market Structure:
🚀 Bullish scenario: Rejection of 19,151.00 & break of 19,400.00 → Retest → Target higher levels.
⚠️ Bearish scenario: Break of 19,151.00 → Drop to 18,796.10 → Further decline if broken.
📌 Risk Management: Wait for confirmation of breakout or rejection before entering trades.
NAS100 - Stock market still in a downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down, it will be clear that it is heading for further moves. At the channel ceiling, I could be close to the next sell-off.
As the new US tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, new evidence suggests that they may be less than the markets had expected. According to a recent report in the Toronto Star, Canada is likely to face the lowest level of tariffs, while Mexico, another member of the US trade agreement, is likely to face a similar situation. In addition, Trump’s recent statements about significant progress in controlling fentanyl (an industrial drug), are seen as a positive sign for improving trade relations.
In this regard, CNBC reported that VAT and non-tariff barriers will not be taken into account in calculating the tariff rate, or at least not fully. The main concern is that by threatening to impose a 25% tariff, Trump is actually preparing Canada and Mexico to accept higher rates than the current conditions. It seems that his goal is to impose the highest possible tariff level. This decision could be an incentive to increase tariff revenue to reduce taxes. Of course, such an approach is associated with high risks, since any level of tariffs can lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners.
In the case of Europe, tariffs imposed on American goods are higher than in other countries, but a large part of them relate to the automotive industry. Europe has previously announced that it is ready to reduce these tariffs. The question now is whether the EU will take a different approach than Mexico and Canada? That is, first impose higher tariffs and then negotiate to reduce them.
This scenario could ultimately benefit the US economy, as the bulk of its trade is with Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, China remains a complex challenge, as it is the main target of Trump’s tariff policies. In addition, the US president recently proposed imposing tariffs on Venezuela, which could be a pretext for intensifying trade pressure on China. Polls show that 50% of the market expects new tariffs on China, which indicates the level of investor concern.
The European Union has reacted to the Trump administration’s decision to impose new tariffs on imported cars and expressed regret over the move. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc will seek a negotiated solution to ease tensions, but she has also stressed that Europe’s economic interests will be protected against US trade policies.
The US credit rating has risen to a new low, according to a new report from Moody’s, which warns that tax cuts and trade tariffs could widen the country’s budget deficit.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank say investors expect the effective tariff rate on all imports to be between 9% and 10%, although some analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested a rate of 18%. However, inflation and exchange rate expectations point to lower figures.
If Trump’s promise of “reciprocal tariffs” is implemented, the effective tariff rate could be even lower than 5 percent, although this depends on whether the agricultural sector is also subject to tariffs. Some reports also suggest that non-tariff barriers may be completely ignored.
According to Deutsche Bank, it is very difficult to determine market expectations precisely. But if the tariff rate ultimately falls between 5 and 7.5 percent, markets are likely to react with more confidence. Otherwise, more volatility and turbulence in financial markets are expected.
At the beginning of the year, markets were in a positive and optimistic mood. The Republican victory in the election, the continuation of tax breaks and the possibility of new support packages were among the factors that reinforced this optimism.
However, factors such as the high US budget deficit, the deadlock in Congress and the high inflation rate have now challenged this optimism. Meanwhile, two important support tools that were effective in the past may no longer be as effective:
1. During Trump’s first term, the stock market was of particular importance to him. Even during the COVID-19 crisis, he constantly talked about the stock market and considered it part of his successes.
The term “Put Trump” meant that even if he made harsh statements, he ultimately acted in the market’s favor.
2. But now, in Trump’s second administration, he talks about “short-term pain” and “economic detoxification.” Tariff threats, reduced investment and policy uncertainty have caused the S&P 500 to fall 10% since February. Trump still considers the market important, but he is no longer as staunchly supportive of it as he used to be.
In addition, this week will include the release of a series of key economic data. Including:
• Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS.
• Wednesday: ADP Private Employment Report
•Thursday: ISM services index and weekly jobless claims.
One of the big risks to the markets is that economic data remains weak while the ISM price sub-indices rise. Such a situation could signal a deflationary tailwind. In such a situation, even if the Federal Reserve moves to lower interest rates, it will still be difficult for the stock market to grow.
NDX : It's time to take a step backThis is a level I'll be closely watching for making aggressive additions. Until then, only selective entries in U.S. Oil ETFs, Silver and Gold ETFs, and a few individual stocks may be considered. However, large-scale accumulation is not advisable until this level is reached.
I may also consider dollar-cost averaging into index ETFs if I start to see signs of consolidation from here onward.
📢📢📢
If my perspective changes or if I gather additional fundamental data that influences my views, I will provide updates accordingly.
Thank you for following along with this journey, and I remain committed to sharing insights and updates as my trading strategy evolves. As always, please feel free to reach out with any questions or comments.
Other posts related to this particular position and scrip, if any, will be attached underneath. Do check those out too.
Disclaimer : The analysis shared here is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in all markets carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. It’s essential to conduct your own research and assess your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The views expressed in this analysis are solely mine. It’s important to note that I am not a SEBI registered analyst, so the analysis provided does not constitute formal investment advice under SEBI regulations.
US100 BULLS ARE STRONG HERE|LONG
US100 SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 19,170.0
Target Level: 20,308.4
Stop Loss: 18,413.4
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 9h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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US markets have a little more downsideI had posted a similar chart a few weeks ago.....US companies fundamentals may be good, but price follows technicals. There is still some more downside, which I think would be where JPow said Inflation is no longer transitory, then we see some consolidation, then another fall to shake out the bulls, by which time we would reach the bottom of the monthly channel and then uptrend can resume after a bit of consolidation. Remember the Trump tariffs are just catalyst, a reason for market to get where it wants to be sooner. Do remember that market rallied when inflation hit a peak of 9%.....All this news is just noise....You know where the level of interests are and trade accordingly....Markets will not go up in a straight line neither will it go down in a straight line.....The Fear & Greed Index is at 4 as per CNN. This is only for investors, start buying small positions in your favorite stock....only a little, bit by bit, with every fall, or you can wait....Don't put all your savings in the market because it fell substantially...Selling begets selling, the opposite is also true.....Market can head to 14000 as well, I'm not ruling that out, but i'm expecting a really nice bounce from the JPow, however, be very aware of the overhead resistance.....Bears have not had a chance for a long time, and they will squeeze every ounce of blood from the bulls while they can....Just remember, Bulls are complacent, Bears are tactical.....Throughout history that has been the case....
NAS100 selling pressure continues due to Apple stock declineHello traders,
As I highlighted in my previous NAS100 analysis, I expected a move to the downside. Technically, the index formed a double top, which was confirmed by a neckline break. Additionally, it has fallen below the rising support trendline from November 2024 and successfully retested it. This week, I anticipate further downside continuation. For an optimal selling opportunity, keep an eye on price action during the New York AM session. Ideally, I’d like to see a minor pullback to 19,200 before considering short positions, with the index potentially targeting liquidity at 18,297 and possibly extending to the 17,235 low from August 2024.
From a fundamental perspective, several factors are reinforcing our bearish outlook on NAS100:
Trade Tariff Concerns – New U.S. tariff measures are fueling trade war fears, weighing on tech stocks.
Inflation & Fed Policy – Higher inflation raises concerns about prolonged high interest rates.
Tech Sector Weakness – Leading NAS100 stocks like Apple and Nvidia are experiencing declines.
Stay cautious and trade wisely! 🚀
The Trump's disruption of globalizationHello,
The trump tarrifs are currently creating a perfect storm for long term investors. This is the best time to use the Newsflows & Tradingview news to understand whats going on & how it can impact your trading. Below are some of the things we see:
President Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiation tool is not a new strategy, but his latest approach signals that President Trump is very keen on industrializing America. The president has made it clear that the tariffs have 3 goals
They can be used to raise money for the government just like taxes
They can be used to redistribute money from consumers towards domestic producers since they discourage against imports.
They can be used to realign global growth strategically shifting industries
We do not see a significant amount of money being raised from tariffs to offset taxes. However, as higher tariffs make it costlier for companies to manufacture abroad and export to the U.S., we anticipate a growing number of firms will relocate their production facilities to American soil. This will be great for the American labour force because it accounts for more jobs and will greatly align how global trade will move on going forward.
However, this strategy is not without its complexities. In today’s interconnected world, manufacturing relies on intricate supply chains, with components sourced from multiple countries. Such disruptions will affect the US market as well and trickle down to the end consumer. Below are some of the tariffs imposed on major trade partners
25% on foreign made cars
20% on the European Union
34% on China
26% on India
24% on China
Countries are threatening to strike back with countermeasures of their own. The USA treasury secretary has warned that countries that try to counter the tariffs will be dealt with separately. We see a direct impact on countries that heavily depend on exports to the USA as being the biggest losers in this conversation as they will have to relook at their markets once again. These countries may include China, Mexico and Germany. These countries may need to relook at the rest of the world to fill up the demand that used to go to the USA.
While many analysts predicted that these tariffs would drive inflation higher, we see a different outcome. The economic slowdown caused by retaliatory tariffs could actually put downward pressure on prices. On top of that, oil prices have remained low, further helping to keep inflation in check. In the long term we see a stronger US economy and more opportunities for companies that manufacture in the USA and have greater demand there.
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All the fundamentals coupled with technicals will give you better entry views and allow you better rest once you deploy your funds.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NAS Falling Knife is OverNAS Falling Knife is Over.
It has been taking support from its trend support.
An uptrend may start from here.
01-04-2025 _ Short Term Bullish Idea _ NAS100 M151- Divergence followed by Convergence.
2- No Divergence against.
3- One can expect pullback followed by continuation to the upside.
Trade war impact on Nasdaq 100Trade wars are escalating, and this time the United States is in conflict with nearly every major economy. In this video, I explain why this shift could have a massive impact on global markets and what it means for traders right now.
I walk through the historical parallels from 95 years ago, when similar tariffs deepened the Great Depression and led to an 80 percent drop in the Dow Jones. A decade later, World War II followed. While no one wants to see that repeated, economic tension is clearly building.
We take a closer look at the Nasdaq 100, which is now trading below its 200-day moving average. I explain why the technical setup suggests further downside and how traders might look to short into rallies rather than chase the current move.
This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
DOWN TREND CONTINUATION We created a daily fvg gap that might push price lower. a possible 9:30 manipulation higher will set the stage for lower price targeting Monday lows the fvg lower boundary is created by the Monday high this is also supported by the London section
2025 Outlook: Correction and Harmonic PatternsThe NASDAQ , after peaking at an unprecedented 22,000 in 2024, has begun a corrective phase driven by pausing Federal Reserve interest rates, concerns over tech-sector profitability, and escalating geopolitical tensions and Trump Commands. This pullback reflects a shift away from growth stocks toward safer assets.
As outlined in this Chart, the index is now validating a bearish harmonic pattern (Crab), which typically signals major trend reversals.
The pattern’s completion zone aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8–78.6%) of the 2022–2024 bull run, projecting downside targets:
- Near-term support: 20,000–20,500 (dynamic support near the 100-week moving average).
- Intermediate zone: 19,000–19,500 (50% Fibonacci level and long-term trendline confluence).
- Final target: 18,500 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement and psychological “golden support”).
Macro risks, such as prolonged restrictive monetary policy, slowing AI-driven earnings growth, and U.S.-China and US-Europe trade tensions, could accelerate this decline.
Traders are monitoring a decisive break below 20,500 with high volume to confirm bearish momentum, while a rebound from 18,500—coupled with reversal patterns like a double bottom may signal a short/mid-term buying opportunity.
This outlook hinges on earnings reports from mega-cap tech firms (Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA) and Federal Reserve policy guidance.
FED slowing down balance sheet reduct，good new for marketMarket sentiment has been pessimistic over the past few days, with some expecting further declines while others anticipate a rebound. However, after scanning through online discussions, I was surprised that almost no one is talking about the most critical piece of information for April！
— Starting in April, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reduce the monthly redemption cap on U.S. Treasury securities from $25 billion to $5 billion to slow down the decline in its securities holdings.!
If we look back at May 2024, the Fed made the same move, which led to a significant rally from May to July.
For those who remain bearish, it's crucial to have proper stop-loss strategies in place. After April 2, as long as technical indicators align, we should expect a strong rebound.
NAS100 Will Go Up From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 18,411.4.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 18,773.6.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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$NAS100 in correction mode. Is a bounce coming?Market experts will say 10% is a correction 20% is a bear market. In the last 5 years NASDAQ100 has been in the bear market 2 times. Once during COVID19 and another time during the FED Rate hike cycle. And it has been in correction mode in Aug 2024 when the Yen carry trade unwound.
Since Aug 2024 PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 has shown great strength with higher highs and higher lows and perfectly within the upward slopping Fib Retracement channel as shown in the chart below respecting the major fib levels and bouncing off from the 0.618 Fib retracement level every time it had a drawdown. The current correction in PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is very close to the 0.618 Fib retracement level which is currently at 18700. This will indicate another potential downside of 2-3 % and if the Fib levels are supposed to holds then we will see a bottom @ 18700 and a bounce back from those levels. This will also bring down the RSI to low 30s which will indicate an oversold position.
Verdict: Start DCA into $ NAS100 and go long 18700.
NAS100 - Tuesday Day Candle - Patience Setting a pending limit once the day candle close above or below the orderblock.
Tariff news push down market, V sharp recovery still possibleDisclaimer: The following reflects personal opinions only and does not constitute investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.
From Monday to Wednesday this week, the Nasdaq experienced a notable rebound, briefly climbing to 19,898 prior to the release of tariff-related news. However, the actual tariff figures and calculation methods far exceeded market expectations, causing a sharp sell-off once the announcement was made. On Friday, markets dropped further after China, the EU, and other countries announced retaliatory tariff measures. The VIX surged to 45.61 on Friday.
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented that the Fed remains in a wait-and-see mode regarding the future of tariffs. He noted that while tariffs could have short-term inflationary effects, current data shows inflation has significantly declined and the underlying U.S. economy remains strong. While this provided some support to the market, it was not enough to spark a meaningful rebound.
Key market concerns include:
1. Higher tariffs could lead to rising inflation, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.
3. Tariff hikes and retaliatory measures may negatively impact multinational companies such as Apple and Nike that rely heavily on global markets and supply chains, resulting in lower revenues and increased operational costs.
3. Escalation of the trade war and more retaliatory measures may further dampen sentiment.
In the week ahead, markets will likely remain sensitive to policy developments.
A. If the Trump administration manages to reach agreements with certain countries to lower tariffs in exchange for concessions. Market sentiment could shift quickly, with investors viewing the tariff hike as a negotiation tactic with only short-term implications. - Vshape recovery
B. On the other hand, if the trade war continues to escalate, it would pose a clear negative for the markets.
Another potential headwind is the threat of U.S.-Iran conflict.
The Trump administration has repeatedly warned of possible military action against Iran. If such a conflict breaks out, markets may fear that Iran could block oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up energy prices and triggering a broad risk-off move.
From a technical perspective, the market has broken below the upward trendline that has been in place since 2022, and continued to decline after retesting that level this week. Without a swift rebound, further downside is possible. Key support levels to watch are 16,962, 16,127, and 15,163.
That said, the tariff news has been priced in to some extent, and the VIX has already spiked above 45. The U.S. economy remains fundamentally solid, making it difficult for bearish sentiment to persist over the long term. Given Trump's negotiating style, some positive developments on tariffs are likely in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed has further reduced its balance sheet runoff in April, with QT now nearing its end.
In my view, short-term bearish sentiment may be near a turning point. There is a high probability of a rebound, but it’s essential to wait for further confirmation — either for negative news to subside or for a technical rebound signal to emerge.
At current levels, shorting the market carries high risk. Unless new negative catalysts or fundamental deterioration arise, I personally would not consider initiating short positions at this time.
US100 Bullish SideUS100 show clear bullish momentum and many indicators shows that US100 in uptrend which are given below:
RSI daily timeframe bullish divergence
Descending parallel channel which show that US100 in a strong uptrend
Strong support zone
All these indicator indicators shows us that US100 in a clear bullish momentum
NDX Nasdaq *2025* Bear MarketCalled it too early. Trump pump is over. Now back on track. See you at $14K.
