Nasdaq 100 Cash Index / US Dollar forum
should be doing its own action this week
I never wrote a Mind like that one before!
There are a lot of good posts and analysis in this forum
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One of the rare examples on Minds and I personally feel so happy to read his analysis and view to the index
I feel he pays a lot of effort and time to write posts like that!
He has no bias!
We can have totally different views to te index but I still respect and appreciate his contributions and so happy to read his posts on Minds!
We do not follow each other and we have not ever met so I do know know him personally but I wish you to continue what you started and I wish you all the best in the future
He is EliteMarketAnalysis1
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US100 Strategic Outlook – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown (W1 to M5)
The weekly trend remains decisively bullish, but short-term exhaustion signals are building. This week’s framework balances macro alignment with tactical precision — respecting long-side dominance while identifying structured opportunities to engage only after key confirmations.
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Weekly (W1):
The primary uptrend is intact. Price remains well above the prior resistance shelf at 22,100–22,200, now acting as strong structural support. The 50-week SMA sits around 20,400, leaving significant buffer room for any healthy corrective activity without threatening the higher-timeframe thesis.
Daily (D1):
Momentum is extended. RSI is flattening in the mid-60s, and price is pushing the upper Bollinger Band near 23,025. Momentum remains positive, but this type of structure historically invites either a controlled pullback or range-bound consolidation toward the 20-SMA near 22,430.
4-Hour (H4):
A rising wedge formation is taking shape, typical of late-stage trends. Volume and MACD are flattening. Critical support and decision zone sits at 22,350–22,450 — where wedge structure, anchored VWAP (from the June swing low), and the 21-EMA converge. This is the primary battleground for buyers if trend integrity is to be preserved.
30-Minute (M30):
Micro-structure is compressed between descending resistance around 22,725 and rising support near 22,690. Price is coiled at the apex, which typically precedes either an impulsive breakout or a short-term reversal. EMAs are turning down, indicating temporary loss of control by buyers.
5-Minute (M5):
Immediate flow bias favors sellers. Price remains below intraday VWAP and 9-EMA, with momentum oscillators mid-range. No edge for longs until VWAP is reclaimed and volume confirms intent.
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Trade Structure for the Week
1. Swing Long (Buy-the-Flush):
If price moves into the 22,350–22,450 confluence zone, I will look for confirmation via a 30-minute bullish reversal candle and a 5-minute VWAP reclaim. This is a high-probability trend-continuation zone provided buyers respond with size.
2. Intraday Fade (Counter-Trend Short):
If price rallies into the 22,725–22,760 supply zone (broken trendline, 5-minute VWAP, and prior session resistance), I will consider short exposure on a confirmed 5-minute rejection with above-average volume. This is a scalping structure only — reduced size, aggressive trailing.
3. Breakout Long (Continuation Entry):
If a 30-minute candle closes above 22,845 on at least 150 percent of average volume, I will watch for a clean 5-minute bull flag to form and hold above the breakout level. Only actionable if volume confirms fresh participation.
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Execution Framework
• Risk per trade: Maximum 1% of account capital (0.5% for counter-trend)
• Stop-loss placement: Below structure or liquidity sweep, with ATR-adjusted buffer
• Position size: Calculated using stop-distance × dollar value per point
• Trail stop to breakeven after 0.75 × risk has been achieved
• ATR(14): 4H ≈ 120 pts, 30m ≈ 80 pts
• Do not execute both long and short scenarios simultaneously — directional conflict invalidates both
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Key Timing Considerations
• Overnight: Does price stay below the 30-minute 21-EMA, or begin reclaiming ground?
• London Open: First reaction at the 22,725–22,760 zone determines whether bulls or bears control early flow
• New York Cash Open: Volume spike will validate breakout or confirm fade conditions
• End of Day: A daily close below 22,450 on strong volume may unlock a deeper corrective move into the 22,000–21,985 zone next week
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Closing Notes
The higher-timeframe trend is still supportive of long exposure, but conditions on the daily and 4-hour charts now require added discipline. I am positioning for either a deep, defended pullback into the 22,350–22,450 zone or a confirmed continuation breakout above 22,845. Everything in between is low-conviction and will be treated as opportunistic scalps only.
