Weekly CLS I Model 2 I Target CLS Highs / OBHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on DXY. If you’ve been following me, you already know my setups are based on CLS Footprint, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific personal execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
System is completely mechanical and repeatable— designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings of multiple patterns Just one setup and market context working on all markets.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behavior of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
Please don't gamble on this setup, just because you seen majority of my setups played out. You can never know which trade will work and which not. It's just a probability. Rather take this as opportunity to learn.
David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to ask me questions, Im always happy to help others and respectfully discuss other opinions.
USXUSD trade ideas
DXY Technical Outlook – Strong Support Test and Bullish Reversa Chart Summary
The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) chart illustrates a significant technical structure between strong historical support and resistance zones, with potential for a bullish reversal after a key level retest.
🟢 Key Support Zone: 99.000 – 98.000
📍 Labeled as "STRONG SUPPORT", this zone has held multiple times:
Previous bounce: Early 2023 ✅
Mid-2024 rebound ✅
Current price action once again shows a reaction from this level with a bullish candle forming 🔥
📌 EMA Confluence:
The 200 EMA (blue) sits at 102.401
The 50 EMA (red) at 103.725
Price is currently below both EMAs but near the 200 EMA, suggesting potential for a mean reversion bounce 📈
🔴 Resistance Zones to Watch:
Resistance Zone: 109.000 – 110.000
⛔ Historically rejected in late 2023 and again in early 2025
🧱 Acting as a supply zone — watch for rejection or breakout
ATH Supply Zone: 113.000 – 114.000
🚨 This is a major psychological and technical barrier
🫡 Marked as “NEW ATH” – would need strong momentum and fundamentals for a breakout above this level
📈 Price Action Expectations:
With strong support respected again, a bullish reversal toward 109.000 – 110.000 appears likely (as illustrated by the arrow).
If momentum continues, a retest of ATH zone is on the cards 🔭
However, a failure to hold support could lead to breakdown below 98.000 – watch closely 🔍
🧭 Strategic Insight
Bullish Bias while above support (98.000 zone)
Reversal Confirmation needed above 102.401 (200 EMA) and 103.725 (50 EMA)
Watch for rejection near 110.000 resistance before ATH test
📌 Final Note:
🧊 World Eyes on this Level – As highlighted on the chart, the current support area is under global observation, reinforcing its importance.
🕵️♂️ Stay alert for breakout volume and fundamental catalysts (e.g., Fed decisions, CPI, jobs data).
DXY Analysis today : Possible reversal?With strong liquidity grab at 99.00 DXY, with monthly rejection to the upside, past week we have seen with gap open the market started to drop long term support level 99.000 which smart money zone price has got bounce back to the upside with strong momentum potentially forming a double bottom with series of higher low price may continue to move up to the 100.75 to long term monthly resistance with NFP we may see further rejection down again.
A bullish on support is high probability !
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Setup – Supply Zone Rejection & 🔹 Trend Overview
📊 Overall Trend: Bearish (Downtrend)
📉 Price is forming lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel.
🔻 Recently bounced off a support zone, now heading toward a potential pullback.
🔵 Supply Zone (Resistance Area)
📍 Zone Range: 100.049 – 100.601
🧱 Acts as a resistance block where sellers might step in.
📏 Confluent with EMA 70 at 100.178, strengthening its validity.
🔸 Trade Setup – Short Position
🟠 ENTRY POINT: 100.088
❌ STOP LOSS: 100.587 – 100.595 (Just above supply zone)
🎯 TARGET: 98.000 (With intermediate support levels)
📌 Support Levels
🔹 98.112 – First minor support
🔹 98.106 – Close-range confirmation
🔹 97.885 – Additional support zone
🟦 Main Target: 98.000
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio
🟧 Small risk above supply zone
🟩 Large reward to downside = Favorable R:R
📌 Summary
📈 Expecting a pullback into supply zone.
🧨 Look for bearish confirmation around 100.088.
🎯 Target the downside at 98.000 for profit.
DXY 4H Breakout? Bulls Eye Momentum Shift!Hey There;
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) appears to have reached a critical turning point from a technical analysis perspective. According to Elliott Wave Theory, following a five-wave downtrend, the AB corrective wave has been completed, and a bullish movement towards the C wave is emerging. This scenario could signal a transition from a bearish market to a bullish one.
Technical Outlook:
- A move towards 104.460 on the DXY may indicate that the market is entering a strong recovery phase.
- The completion of the AB corrective wave suggests that buyers are stepping in, driving upward momentum in price action.
- The C wave typically retraces a portion of the prior decline, creating potential for a higher price level.
Macroeconomic Factors:
- U.S. monetary policy and inflation data remain key determinants of the dollar index’s trajectory.
- Increased global risk appetite may bolster the dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
- U.S. Treasury yields could provide additional support for DXY’s upward movement.
If DXY successfully reaches 104.460, this could confirm a shift into a bullish trend. However, the strength and sustainability of the C wave will depend on supportive volume and momentum indicators. The interplay between technical and fundamental factors could drive a solid recovery in the dollar index.
Should this scenario unfold, it may mark the beginning of a renewed period of dollar strength against global currencies. However, market dynamics and macroeconomic developments must be monitored closely to validate this outlook.
Guys, every single like from you is my biggest source of motivation when it comes to sharing my analysis.
A huge thank you to everyone who supports me with their likes!
DXYDXY price is near the support zone 98.74-97.87. If the price cannot break through the 97.87 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
DXY Short-Term Reversal Zone in SightUS Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a strong support zone at 98.90–98.00, which has historically acted as a base for bullish reversals. The price is now testing the lower bound of this zone after a steady downtrend from the 101.94 high.
Key Technical Structure:
Support Zone: 98.90–98.00 (tested 3+ times)
Double Bottom Potential forming if bulls hold the zone
Upside Targets:
101.94: Key horizontal resistance
103.50: Swing high from early April
Scenarios to Watch:
🔹 Bullish Rebound:
Price bounces off 98.90–98.00 support
Confirmation: Break and close above 100.50 near-term resistance
Could fuel move back to 101.94, possibly 103.50
🔹 Bearish Breakdown:
Daily close below 98.00 would invalidate bullish setup
Opens downside to 97.00 and even 95.50
Macro Drivers to Watch:
FOMC speakers and interest rate guidance
US jobless claims or inflation surprise
Risk-off sentiment (benefits USD) vs. continued global risk appetite
Conclusion:
DXY is trading at a make-or-break support zone. Watch for clear bullish reaction or bearish breakdown before committing. The setup favors a bounce unless 98.00 fails.
USDollar Is Making An Intraday Pullback Within DowntrendGood morning traders! Stocks keep pushing higher along with yields, so it looks like 10Y US Notes could still see lower support levels, and that’s why USdollar is in a bigger intraday correction. What we want to say is that while the 10Y US Notes are still searching for support, the DXY can stay in recovery mode or at least sideways. In the meantime, stocks can easily see even higher levels after NVIDIA surpassed earnings.
Looking at the intraday USDollar Index – DXY chart, we see a leading diagonal formation, so we are tracking now an intraday abc correction before a bearish continuation, thus keep an eye on GAP from May 18 around 101 level that can be filled and may act as a resistance before a bearish continuation.
My Thoughts #012The pair is in a bearish trend on the weekly time
In the bearish trend the pair seems to be making a LH
Meaning we are currently moving up and currently on the lower time frame we are in bullish trend.
The pair still has equal highs open on the weekly time frame.
It further sweeped equal lows on the daily time to fuel for the next move up.
The pair broke out, retested and after that it's been trying to gain more momentum for the upside.
Sells could still happen just use proper risk management
let's do the most
Falling towards pullback support?US Dollar index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.89
1st Support: 97.98
1st Resistance: 100.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY Under Pressure: Breakdown Incoming Below 99.00?After testing the 102 resistance zone in mid-May, the TVC:DXY resumed its downward move, dropping back into the 98.50–99.00 support zone.
The brief spike above the psychological 100 was quickly rejected, and price has since rolled over — currently trading around 99.27 at the time of posting.
🔻 The downside pressure is strong, and a break below support looks imminent.
If that break occurs:
🎯 Short-term target: 98 (approx. 1% drop)
📉 Medium-term potential: A deeper decline toward 95
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is risng towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 99.10
1st Support: 98.01
1st Resistance: 99.94
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY Breakdown Could Trigger a Massive Market Shift !Hello Traders 🐺
I hope you're doing well!
In this idea, I want to once again talk about the DXY situation, because in my opinion, we're currently at a very critical level—and it's decision time!
First, let’s take a look at the chart, and then I’ll explain the potential impact this setup could have on other markets—especially crypto and stocks:
As you can see in the daily chart, DXY was perfectly supported by the red box area—which has now flipped into resistance. In my opinion, there are two key levels to watch here.
There’s an old rule in technical analysis:
"The more a level gets tested, the weaker it becomes."
And that’s exactly what we saw—DXY tested that support zone multiple times. Once it finally broke down, we witnessed a massive pump in dollar-hedged assets!
Now, the price is retesting that zone as resistance. If DXY breaks below its previous low, we could see a strong bullish wave in both crypto and equity markets.
🔎 So what does this mean for different markets?
1. Crypto Market
If DXY gets rejected and breaks lower, we’re likely to see a big move in BTC, and in my opinion, an even crazier rally in altcoins—especially since BTC.D is near its peak (~70%). If it collapses, the altcoin party begins!
2. Stock Market
A weaker dollar = boost for U.S. exports
Foreign investors love cheaper dollars = more capital flows into U.S. assets
In short?
📈 It's a green light for equity bulls.
3. Global Markets (Commodities & Gold)
Dollar down? Commodities up.
Gold shines as the go-to hedge in times of dollar weakness.
Oil and metals surge, since they’re priced in USD.
When the DXY slides, hard assets come alive.
I hope you enjoyed this idea, my friends!
Remember: markets reward those who stay patient and act with conviction. Jump on the train at the right moment. You’ve got my word:
Buy when there’s fear, sell when there’s greed.
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
DXY 4hr chart Analaysis It is possible that the DXY may retrace back to the 101.208 level, which previously marked the beginning of a bearish move. Alternatively, it could also resume a bearish trend from its current level or around the 99.80 zone. The market at this point requires heightened caution.
A potential bearish entry could be considered if DXY breaks below the 98.66 – 98.30 support area. A clear break of this level would confirm a fully established bearish trend, with a likely continuation towards the 94.00 – 93.00 range. From there, a bullish momentum may be anticipated.
DXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental AnalysisDXY 15-Minute Technical & Fundamental Analysis
DXY has reclaimed momentum, trading at 99.300, after strong U.S. economic data and a hawkish tone from Fed officials signaled policy stability — boosting short-term confidence in the U.S. dollar. On the 15-minute chart, we’re seeing a bullish structure reinforced by clean liquidity manipulation and institutional flow.
Price confirmed bullish intent after breaking above minor key resistance at 99.250, triggering a wave of buy-side momentum. A brief liquidity hunt below 99.250 followed — a textbook manipulation phase — before buyers stepped back in.
DXY then formed Higher Highs and Higher Lows, indicating a well-supported uptrend. Price is now sitting inside the liquidity zone, where smart money often positions for the next leg up.
📊 Trade Setup
📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 99.140 (Buy Limit)
🛡 Stop-Loss: 98.990 (Below liquidity grab and minor support)
🎯 Take Profit: 99.610 (Next minor resistance / 1:3 RR)
This setup aligns with institutional behavior, offering a high-probability entry for short-term trend continuation.
📰 Fundamental Outlook
🇺🇸 USD Strength Backed by Short-Term Fundamentals
Resilient U.S. Data: Retail sales and durable goods orders beat forecasts, signaling economic strength and limiting downside for the dollar.
Fed Stays Hawkish: Policymakers have reiterated their "higher for longer" stance, reducing expectations for rate cuts and supporting the dollar.
Safe-Haven Demand: Geopolitical concerns and weak economic data abroad have driven flows back into the USD as investors seek stability.
Yield Support: Elevated U.S. bond yields continue to attract foreign capital, giving additional strength to DXY.
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Dollar Index (DXY) Completes Correction, Resumes DowntrendThe short-term Elliott Wave analysis for the Dollar Index (DXY) indicates that the cycle from the January 13, 2025 high is unfolding as an impulse pattern, characterized by a five-wave structure moving in the direction of the larger trend. The decline from the January 13, 2025 high began with wave (1), which concluded at 106.96. This was followed by a corrective rally in wave (2), peaking at 109.88. The Index then resumed its downward trajectory in wave (3), reaching 97.92, before a corrective wave (4) rally ended at 101.99, as illustrated in the 1-hour chart below.
Currently, wave (5) is in progress, unfolding as another impulse in a lesser degree. From the wave (4) high, wave (i) concluded at 100.27, followed by a corrective wave (ii) rally ending at 101.259. The Index continued lower in wave (iii) to 99.33, with a subsequent wave (iv) rally peaking at 100.118. The final leg, wave (v), completed at 98.69, finalizing wave ((i)). The corrective wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure, with wave (w) reaching 99.87. Index then pullback in wave (x) to 99.48, before concluding wave (y) at 100.54. The Index has now turned lower in wave ((iii)). In the near term, as long as the pivot at 101.99 remains intact, the Dollar Index should extend its decline, potentially reaching new lows as the impulse wave continues.
DOLLAR INDEXCorrelation Between DXY, Bond Yields, and Bond Prices
1. Bond Prices and Bond Yields: Inverse Relationship
Bond prices and bond yields move inversely: when bond prices rise, yields fall; when bond prices fall, yields rise.
This happens because bonds pay fixed coupons; if market interest rates rise, existing bonds with lower coupons become less attractive, pushing their prices down and yields up.
2. DXY and 10-Year Treasury Yield: Generally Positive Correlation
The US Dollar Index (DXY) and the US 10-year Treasury yield typically move in the same direction. When the 10-year yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen, and vice versa.
This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the dollar.
Historically, this correlation has been strong, with a rolling correlation averaging around 44.5% and recently rising to about 75% in early 2025.
However, this relationship can break down temporarily due to shifts in market sentiment or safe-haven flows. For example, in mid-2025, the correlation briefly turned negative amid changing investor preferences.
3. DXY and Bond Prices: Indirect Inverse Correlation
Since bond prices and yields are inversely related, and yields and DXY are positively correlated, DXY tends to move inversely to bond prices.
Rising bond prices (falling yields) often coincide with dollar weakness, while falling bond prices (rising yields) support dollar strength.
4. Interest Rates and Their Role
Central bank interest rates influence bond yields and the dollar.
Rate hikes generally push bond yields higher and strengthen the dollar, while rate cuts do the opposite.
Interest rate expectations are a key driver behind the bond yield-DXY relationship.
Summary Table
Relationship Direction/Correlation Explanation
Bond Price ↔ Bond Yield Inverse Fixed coupon bonds lose value when rates rise
10-Year Yield ↔ DXY Positive (usually) Higher yields attract capital, boosting USD
Bond Price ↔ DXY Inverse (indirect) Bond prices up → yields down → USD weakens
Interest Rates ↔ Yield & DXY Positive Rate hikes raise yields and strengthen USD
Conclusion
The US Dollar Index (DXY) generally rises with increasing 10-year Treasury yields because higher yields attract investment flows into US assets, boosting demand for the dollar. Conversely, bond prices move inversely to yields, so rising bond prices tend to coincide with dollar weakness. While this relationship is strong historically, it can fluctuate due to market sentiment, safe-haven demand, and geopolitical factors.
#DOLLAR #DXY