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DXY Weekly Analysis – Critical Support Zone at 98.4 The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently testing a major support zone around 98.4 on the weekly timeframe. This level aligns with the bottom of a long-term ascending channel, and it also coincides with a horizontal support zone that has held multiple times in the past. If this area holds, we could see a strong bullish rebound towards the 105 area — or even higher. However, a clear break below this support may open the door for a deeper decline toward the 89–90 range, which marks the next significant support zone. Overall, DXY is sitting at a crucial decision point, and the market’s reaction in the coming weeks will be key for medium to long-term direction.
TVC:DXY
by alirezaameri677
Dollar under pressure, is the bear trend gonna end soon?President Trump's aggressive tariff implementations, particularly on electronics and critical imports, have introduced volatility into U.S. markets. These measures have led to decreased investor confidence and capital outflows from U.S. assets, contributing to the dollar's weakness. ​ There's growing concern among global investors about the reliability of U.S. economic policies. A Bank of America survey indicated record pessimism towards U.S. assets, with over 60% of fund managers anticipating further depreciation of the dollar. ​ The Trump administration's economic approach, informally dubbed the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," aims to deliberately weaken the dollar to boost U.S. exports and reduce trade deficits. While this strategy seeks to make American goods more competitive, it risks destabilizing global financial markets and undermining the dollar's reserve currency status. ​ Differences in monetary policies between the U.S. and other major economies have widened. While the Federal Reserve has been cautious with rate cuts, other central banks, like the European Central Bank, have been more aggressive, making their currencies more attractive to investors. ​ In all these Chaos can dollar bounce back? The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 99.23—down about 1.5% over the past week and roughly 4% lower so far in April, its worst monthly performance since mid‑2022 That 99.0–99.5 zone lines up with both the April swing lows and the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart—classic territory where “oversold” signals often lead to a rebound. The 14‑day RSI is hovering near 30, the canonical “oversold” threshold where prior rallies have begun Markets now price in three rate cuts by year‑end, a sharp turn from December’s hawkish Fed rhetoric. If the Fed leans dovish in the May minutes, yield differentials could narrow—supporting a dollar bounce Heightened trade‑war uncertainty (tariffs on critical minerals, spiking gold) often drives investors back into dollars as a haven—another buffer at current lows. Technically the chart is still bullish on daily and certainly near the support zone, both scenario are in play for now, if it continues to drop sharply towards 96 then it may totally reverse back to 107. Considering Dollar bottom is near we can plan a swing trade with a huge potential, with awesome risk and reward. Good luck trade safe.
TVC:DXYLong
by Profit_zone
DXY Is Bullish! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 15m Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 99.109. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 99.404 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DOLLAR INDEXThe Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance in April 2025 is characterized by a cautious, data-dependent approach amid mixed economic signals and heightened uncertainty, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and trade tensions. Key Points on the Fed’s Monetary Policy This Month Interest Rates: The Fed has maintained the federal funds target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, holding steady without changes in April. The Committee is carefully assessing incoming data before considering any adjustments to rates. Balance Sheet Reduction: Starting in April, the Fed slowed the pace of its balance sheet runoff by reducing the monthly cap on Treasury securities redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. This move smooths the transition from abundant reserves but does not signal a change in the overall policy stance. Economic Outlook and Risks: The economy continues to expand modestly with a solid labor market, but inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2% target. The Fed acknowledges increased uncertainty due to tariffs, which may simultaneously slow growth and push inflation higher, creating a challenging policy environment. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the potential conflict between the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in this context. The Fed is prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, depending on how economic data evolve, but currently prefers to "stand pat" and await clearer signals on the economy’s response to tariffs and other factors. Inflation and Employment: Inflation is gradually declining but remains above target. The labor market is solid but expected to soften somewhat due to slower growth and tariff effects, with unemployment forecasted to rise modestly over the next year. Forward Guidance: The Fed’s communication emphasizes patience and data dependency, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7, where further policy decisions will be evaluated based on new economic information. Summary Aspect Current Fed Stance (April 2025) Federal Funds Rate Held steady at 4.25%–4.50% Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed Treasury runoff to $5B/month Inflation Elevated but gradually declining Labor Market Solid but expected to soften Tariff Impact Significant uncertainty; potential stagflation risk Policy Outlook Patient, data-dependent; no immediate rate changes Next FOMC Meeting May 6-7, 2025 In essence, the Fed is maintaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance this month, balancing between controlling inflation and supporting employment amid trade-related uncertainties. It is closely monitoring economic data before making further moves, signaling readiness to adjust policy if risks to growth or inflation intensify.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
Dollar has next 4 years (Be greedy when others are fearful)The world is changing fast, and the next four years may be strong for the U.S. dollar . This is not random— it's part of a cycle . Greed-fear cycle Right now, humanity is entering a time where AI will take over most service-based jobs . Lawyers, designers, consultants—even coders—are slowly being replaced by machines. The entire service economy is becoming automated. When that happens, only countries with real manufacturing will survive. That’s why what President Trump said earlier about “bringing back manufacturing” makes full sense now. When services become automated, tangible assets rise. And the dollar may lead this shift.
TVC:DXY
by LensOfChartist
DXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting BreakoutDXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting Breakout On the 60-minute chart, DXY has developed a contracting triangle, which is typically a trend continuation pattern, suggesting a potential downward move. However, since this consolidation is taking time and DXY’s price action remains complex, movement in either direction is possible. The breakout will ultimately determine the next price direction, but based on current conditions, an upward move seems more likely in the near future. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
TVC:DXY
by KlejdiCuni
7
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). Established in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system ended, the index serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s strength in global markets. How the Dollar Index Drives Trade Directional Bias in Forex Indicator of Dollar Strength or Weakness When the USDX rises, it means the U.S. dollar is strengthening against this basket of currencies; when it falls, the dollar is weakening. Since the dollar is the world’s primary reserve and trading currency, its strength heavily influences forex market trends. Correlation with Major Currency Pairs Inverse correlation with EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Because the euro and pound have large weights in the index, a rising USDX typically causes EUR/USD and GBP/USD to fall, and vice versa. Positive correlation with USD/JPY and USD/CAD: For pairs where USD is the base currency, these pairs tend to move in the same direction as the USDX. Commodity-related pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD often move inversely to the USDX due to their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and commodity prices. Guiding Trade Decisions and Confirming Signals Traders use the USDX to confirm directional bias in forex trades. For example, if the USDX is rising, it supports taking long positions in USD-based pairs or short positions in pairs where USD is the quote currency. Conversely, a falling USDX suggests caution on USD longs and potential opportunities in other currencies. Macro and Sentiment Indicator The USDX reflects broader economic conditions, U.S. monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. For instance, Fed rate hikes often strengthen the USDX, causing shifts in forex markets. It also acts as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy and influences global trade flows. Summary Aspect Effect on Forex Trading Rising USDX Dollar strengthens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to fall; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to rise Falling USDX Dollar weakens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to rise; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to fall USD as Base Currency (USD/xxx) Moves in line with USDX USD as Quote Currency (xxx/USD) Moves inversely to USDX Use in Trading Confirms trade signals, guides directional bias, gauges macroeconomic trends In essence, the U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool in forex trading, providing a consolidated view of the dollar’s strength and helping traders anticipate market movements and set trade directional bias accordingly.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
DXY Long to 100 off bullish news from Trump 1. Current Data and research Macro Regime Business cycle - moving into recession territory. S&P is down from 6125 to 4842 at its lowest. That's a 21% drop - this crosses the 20% drop threshold. Inflation - Headline 2.4%. Slightly above 2% target. Core PCE is at 0.4%. This is higher than expected. Monetary Policy - Still at high interest rate levels of 4.5%. There's more room for cuts than hike in general. However, Tariffs is a spanner in this logic as it introduces inflation that needs to be controlled, and limits the cuts. Growth - Consumer sentiments - 50.8. This is a drop from 57. Not a good sign for confidence in the US markets Central Bank Outlook - Forward Guidance & Policy Path - "Wait and see" approach to see the full effects of the tariffs and will tackle. Unlikely to cut rates quickly due to inflation risks from tariffs. Flow & Positioning Factors - LDN and NY opens List of upcoming data German PMI - today US PMI - today Expectations German PMI - 47.5/50.3 - Unsure, but doubt there will be a huge surprise to the upside US PMI - 49.3/52.9 - Expect a downtrend here and close to the 49.3. It will invalidate longer-term trades if there's a huge surprise to the downside US Unemployment claims -NA -Expecting higher Bullish arguments - More pumping by Trump to prop the market up while the fundamentals are still likely to bad as tariffs are still there Bear arguments - The tariff is still the biggest elephant in the room and nothing has changed there. If anything, China has taken steps to prepare for a worse response in the future if US does not reach a negotiation. 2. Trade Thesis Directional Thesis I am expecting DXY to go back up to 100 due to a temporary strength in the USD from the good news for Fed Powell and Trump backing down in tariffs. Supporting Logic - Structural -- The DXY was holding 100 level before the Powell news. -- If the current news stays status quo, I expect prices to rise back up to that fundamental level after a brief pullback from 99.4 to 99.2 -Tactical A significant lower-high pivot point set on H1 chart. I need prices to remain above that 99 level. If it drops below, then the tactical levels do not work. - Flows Look for entry at either LDN or NY session open Expected Path - Pull back to 99.0 and now slow ascend back to 100 - There's a resistance level at 99.6. That would be TP1, and 100 would be TP2 Invalidation Logic - Fundamental Invalidation -- Trump tweets another fire Fed -- China escalates the trade war -- US PMI has a huge downside surprise (unlikely) - Price-Based Invalidation -- Price breaking below 99 Asymmetric Setup If I enter at 99.1X, this is a potential 1:4R trade with high confidence Trade Setup Entry level - 99.1 to 99.2 Scale-in plan (if any) - I can enter full size here Position sizing - 1% of account TP zones - TP1 - 99.6 - TP2 - 100 - TP3 - 101 (significant psychological level) Time stop Kill trade if a) Prices drop below 99 b) Prices do not bounce to the upside within 2 hours of LDN and NY open
TVC:DXYLong
by yuhaocooper
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the 100 mark in April 2025 due to a combination of trade tensions, shifting investor sentiment, and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. Key reasons include: 1. Trade War and Tariff Impact President Donald Trump's imposition of aggressive tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese imports) and China’s retaliatory tariffs have sparked fears of a full-blown global trade war. This has unsettled financial markets, leading investors to reduce exposure to U.S. assets and the dollar. The tariffs have disrupted trade flows, increased inflationary pressures, and raised concerns about slower economic growth in the U.S., which undermines the dollar’s appeal. 2. Declining Safe-Haven Demand Traditionally, the dollar benefits as a safe-haven currency during global uncertainty. However, in 2025, investors are increasingly turning to gold, which hit record highs above $3,300and headed to 3400 as an alternative safe haven. This shift reflects doubts about the dollar’s reliability amid trade tensions and fiscal imbalances. 3. Concerns Over U.S. Economic Growth and Recession Risks Rising fears of a U.S. recession, fueled by tariff-induced economic headwinds and slowing corporate earnings, have dampened confidence in the dollar. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and signals of potential rate cuts later in 2025 have also contributed to weakening the dollar, as lower interest rates reduce the currency's yield advantage. 4. Political and Policy Uncertainty Market unease has been heightened by President Trump’s public threats to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence and future monetary policy direction. Political noise and uncertainty over trade negotiations, especially with China, have further pressured the dollar. 5. Technical and Market Sentiment Factors Technically, the DXY has broken below key support levels, including the 200-day simple moving average (~104.6) and the psychologically important 100 level, signaling bearish momentum. Summary Table of Factors Driving DXY Below 100 Factor Impact on DXY Trade War Tariffs = Reduced dollar demand, increased volatility Shift to Gold as Safe Haven= Dollar loses safe-haven status U.S. Economic Slowdown Fears= Weaker growth outlook dampens dollar strength Fed Policy Uncertainty = Rate cut expectations reduce dollar yield Political Risks = Fed independence concerns add to uncertainty Technical Breakdown = Breach of key supports fuels bearish momentum Conclusion The DXY’s fall below 100 reflects a complex mix of trade-related economic risks, diminished safe-haven demand, political uncertainty, and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Unless these issues ease—such as through trade deal progress, clearer Fed guidance, or economic stabilization—the dollar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Shavyfxhub