USXUSD trade ideas
US DOLLAR UPDATE4H demand zone was reached, and price initially reacted strongly with a bullish close. However, buyers lacked momentum, and with fundamentals like Friday’s UoM data coming in lower than forecast, confidence in the economy weakened, leading to a drop.
From a technical standpoint, price will seek lower demand, but for shorts to be confirmed, the invalidation point must be broken, not just spiked. Let’s wait and see how the market unfolds.
Blessings,
T
DXY LONG/BUYBy utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, historical patterns, , we can formulate a hypothesis that the market might follow a similar trajectory if bullish sentiment prevails.
DXY to 80? ...Tariffs the First Domino in a Multi-Year Collapse?This is a pure technical walkthrough of the U.S. Dollar Index—no fluff, no indicators, no fundamentals. Just market structure, smart money, and liquidity concepts.
Back on January 14th , I posted about a potential 20%+ drop in the DXY — you can view it here . This video builds on that thesis and walks you through the full technical story from 1986 to today , including accumulation cycles, yearly trap zones, and my long-term target of 80. Am I crazy? Maybe. Let's see if I can convince you to be crazy too 😜
There is a video breakdown above, and a written breakdown below.
Here are timestamps if you want to jump around the video:
00:00 – The Case for $80: Not as Crazy as It Sounds
02:30 – The 0.786 Curse: Why the Dollar Keeps Faking Out
06:15 – How Smart Money Really Moves: The 4-Phase Playbook
12:30 – The Trap Is Set: Yearly Highs as Liquidity Bait
20:00 – Inside the Mind of the Market: 2010–2025 Unpacked
25:00 – The Bear Channel No One’s Talking About
36:00 – The First Domino: Is the Dollar’s Slide Just Beginning?
👇 If you're a visual learner, scroll down—each chart tells part of the story.
Chart: Monthly View – Three Highs, .786 Retraces, and Trendline Breaks
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes.
Each major DXY rally has formed a sequence of three swing highs right after a break of trendline structure. In both instances, price retraced to the .786 level on the yearly closes—an often overlooked fib level that institutional players respect.
We’re now sitting at a high again. You’ll notice price has already reversed from that zone. That doesn’t guarantee a collapse, but when we line it up with other confluences (next charts), the probability of a deeper markdown becomes hard to ignore.
I'd also like to note that all of the highlighted moves, are 2-3 year trend runs. Which means if we are bearish, this could be the exact start of a 2-3 bear market.
Market Phases Since 1986
This chart illustrates how DXY has moved through repeating cycles of:
🟡 Accumulation: Smart money building positions quietly.
🔵 Markup: Price accelerates with buy orders + media hype.
🟣 Distribution: Smart money sells to latecomers.
🔴 Markdown: Public panic → smart money reloads.
If we are indeed entering another markdown phase, this would align perfectly with the pattern seen over the past 40 years.
You’ll also notice the "Point of Control" (POC) zones—volume-based magnets that price often returns to. These spots often act as the origin of the move, and as such, they make for strong targets and areas of interest.
Liquidity Zones and Stop Loss Traps
This is where it gets juicy.
The majority of breakout traders placed long entries at the blue lines—above swing highs, thinking resistance was broken. But what’s under those highs? Stop loss clusters.
Institutions use these areas as liquidity harvests.
Several key levels are marked as “OPEN” in this chart, meaning price has yet to return to sweep those orders. That’s why I’m expecting price to begin seeking out that liquidity over the coming months.
There's also an imbalance gap (thin price action) around the 85–86 zone. If price falls into that trap door, there’s nothing to stop it until the 80s.
The 2025 Outlook
Here’s how I’m approaching this year:
✅ Bearish bias under 105
🎯 Targets at 100, 95, and 90
🚪 Trap door under 86 if volume is thin
Price is currently stuck under the recent point of control and showing signs of distribution. If that level continues to hold as resistance, we could see a multi-leg push downward, with the 100 and 95 zones acting as check-in points.
If we break under the 90s and enter the imbalance zone, 80 becomes more than just possible—it becomes probable.
🗣️ Let’s Sharpen Together
Do you see this unfolding the same way?
Do you disagree with the 80 target?
Drop a comment with your view or share your own markup—this is why we trade!
Stay safe,
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer
This post is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal analysis and opinions. It is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research, manage your risk appropriately, and never trade money you can’t afford to lose.
DXY Monthly Analysis: Key Support Holding, Bullish Move Ahead?📊 DXY Monthly Chart Analysis (March 27, 2025)
Key Observations:
Current Price Action:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 104.267, with notable resistance ahead.
Price is consolidating within a key demand zone (~102.5–104) after rejecting higher levels.
Technical Levels:
Support Zone: 100.2–104 (Highlighted in purple)
Resistance Zone: 112.5–114.7 (Highlighted in purple)
Major Resistance: 114.77 (Previous high, acting as a supply zone)
200-MA Support: Located below current price, offering a long-term bullish confluence.
Market Structure:
Price remains in a higher time-frame bullish trend but is experiencing a correction.
The "BOSS" level (Break of Structure) suggests a prior bullish breakout.
If the demand zone holds, a bullish continuation towards 112.5–114.7 is possible.
Projected Move:
A bounce from 102–104 could trigger a rally toward the upper resistance zone (~112.5).
A break below 100.2 could indicate a shift in trend and further downside.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a critical decision point. Holding the current support zone (~102–104) could fuel a bullish continuation toward 112–114, while a breakdown below 100.2 would weaken bullish momentum.
DXY (USDX): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
BEST,
MT
DXY cool offDXY has just completed its 3rd right-translated cycle, with three minuscule waves in the last daly cycle. DXY has been hugging the top of the Bollinger Bands since October. For me, this might suggest a completed leg, which could favor Bitcoin as DXY cools off
US INDEX Still Bearish From a weekly perspective... we might see DXY continuing its bearish trend. If this continues... I would be looking for buy opportunities on Gold, EU and GU
Will the DXY Hold the $109 Level Amid Bearish Patterns and CPI?The DXY is currently forming a bearish chart pattern as it awaits the release of today's CPI data. The key question remains: will the $109 support level hold firm, or is a breakdown imminent? I’d love to hear your analysis and insights on this critical matter.
DXY - How Instant Gratification Kills & Patience Pays Earlier in the month I shared a trading idea on the DXY looking at potential buying opportunities based on a Bullish Cypher & test of structure.
There was some negative feedback from that original idea, simply because the trade didn't reverse "right away" - Today, I'm going to update you on this idea as well as share with you some thoughts on how instant gratification can ruin traders and how patience literally pays off when it comes to trading.
If you have any questions and comments, please leave them below and I think the podcast episode that I'm referring to in the video was episode 1131 "How To Avoid Panic and Protect Profits" - Not 100% sure about that though.
Akil
DXY on the EdgeTrump's trade policies in Q1 have significantly influenced global markets, with critics arguing that his import tariffs are destabilizing the economic and monetary order. These measures have sparked concerns about U.S. dollar confidence, potentially leading to financial instability and broader economic consequences.
🔹 DXY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical juncture, currently hovering around 103.376—a key level that will determine the next major move.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If DXY holds above 103.376, it may push towards the 106.160 and 107.595 resistance levels.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
A break below 103.376 could send DXY further down, targeting 101.805 and 100.235 as potential support zones.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance: 106.160, 107.595
Support: 103.376, 101.805, 100.235
⚠ Risk Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a trading signal. Always confirm with your own strategy before making any trading decisions.
Sunday Viper Upcoming week overview. On Sunday's i break down the DXY and the rest of the market giving a forward look and expectation of what we can expect or look for upcoming. I breakdown US30, Nas100, Gold, Oil, BTC and some forex pairs. Possibly a big week ahead with Tariffs coming out April 2nd and NFP on Friday. Looking forward to an exciting volatile week.
DXY Daily T.F Forecast This is my forecast for DXY.The market is in Wave 3 of A and Waiting for pullback to wave 4 for a ride down to complete Wave A.Then will have a bigger correction to form Wave B followed by the final Wave C.
NOTE:This are my ideas and not trading advice.
DXY 1H – Potential Sweep Before Uptrend ContinuationThe Dollar Index recently closed above a previous lower high, signaling a possible bullish trend continuation. However, the recent drop has only seen wicks covering the higher low, suggesting this may just be a liquidity sweep rather than a true bearish reversal.
📊 Key Observations:
✔ Higher Low Sweep: Current price action suggests liquidity is being grabbed before a potential move higher.
✔ Daily Structure: This move aligns with a possible sweep on the D1 timeframe, meaning a bullish reaction could be imminent.
🔎 Next Steps: Watching for bullish confirmation before taking long positions. If price reclaims support, a continuation toward higher levels is likely.
$DXY IdeaWhen analyzing the weekly DXY chart, we identify the presence of two CRTs: one bullish and one bearish. However, the bearish CRT has a low probability of success due to the candle formation and the fact that the price is still in a discounted region within the range.
Given this, our initial expectation is for the price to drop at the beginning of the week to seek liquidity in the equilibrium region of the daily range, which coincides with the 50% level of the bearish CRT. This movement may act as a correction within the predominant trend, pushing the price up toward the premium region of the weekly range. From that point, we will once again look for selling opportunities, as the market may resume its downward movement.
Based on this analysis, we initially seek selling opportunities down to the equilibrium region. Once this level is reached, we will wait for confirmation of a bullish reversal to look for buying opportunities up to the 50% mark of the bullish CRT.
Dollar milkshake theory is intactLots of people are trained bots against the US dollar. They have an instinctual reflex, saying it’s going up to freeze up into an Ice 9 situation, or inflate away like Weimar Republic. Neither has happened. These npc’s fail to understand that the US export most of those dollars. There’s more overseas demand for dollars that native demand. This keeps the inflation in the States at bay, and makes it impossible in the end for any other fiat to compete. We’re watching this play out in the charts with the Euro and the Canadian dollar. The euro is playing footsies with parity to the Dollar, and if parity cannot be stabilize between the pair, the Euro is destined to collapse against the dollar. All of this is in the apparent and what I’m reading into the candles. It’s not witchcrafts
Dollar Bullish To $118?!During the last market analysis I said I remain bullish on the DXY for the upcoming future & that bias still remains the same. After the strong bullish rally from October - December 2024, The Dollar started off this year with an ease off, seeing prices drop for the first quarter of 2025. However, this cool off has not changed the long term perspective for the Dollar as we still remain bullish. This correction (sell off) this quarter was simply a dip.
The Dollar has completed its Wave D consolidation phase & is now getting ready for further upside towards Wave E. Wave E being priced around $116 - $118.
Dollar Index 4hr analysisContinuing our scenario analysis and forecast on the weekly and daily timeframes, here are the reasons for which we believe that at the moment the most likely scenario to play out is scenario 1 (dollar strength), from now on or soon:
1. the flat most likely to play out in the daily is a regular flat (dark blue) because the flat inside it (light blue) is the one that looks most proper, or "ideal", as it has a perfect correction inside it to mark the b wave (marked by a circle, both on the chart and on the macd).
2. the contracting flat that you can see in part 2 of our daily analysis, is a terrible looking correction because even it it were a contracting flat, still the b wave inside it should be the most corrective piece, and it isn't.
3. there is growing divergence on the way down in this last move down on the 4hr, which indicates a potential turn.
Please follow us if you feel that our analysis or setups can be of help!
Thank you for viewing.
DXY:Today's Trading StrategyTrump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars, aiming to force the return of many automotive manufacturing and related industries through the "tariff stick." However, the actual situation is more complex. Currently, there are significant issues within the US domestic industrial chain system, with declining quality and craftsmanship, failing to meet the needs of many automotive manufacturing enterprises. As a result, this measure is unlikely to achieve the desired effect and may even harm the US itself. The US Dollar Index is the first to bear the brunt. Upon the market's confirmation that Trump has officially signed the order and tariffs will be imposed, the pressure on the US Dollar Index suddenly emerged, squandering the hard-earned advantages accumulated yesterday. This led to a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index early today.
Regarding today's trading strategy, it is recommended to adopt a trading approach based on the market's oscillatory trend. One can seize the opportunity to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs and buy non-US currencies at lows, as the current market demand indicates that the US Dollar Index cannot truly rise, nor will it experience a significant decline for now. Therefore, it is advisable to find opportunities to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs during the market's oscillation.
Trading strategy:
buy@103.70-103.80
TP:104.50-105.00
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Dollar Weakens Amid Concerns Over New TariffsThe U.S. dollar traded weaker on Thursday, dropping 0.22% in the DXY index, despite the release of economic figures that slightly exceeded market expectations. This negative move becomes technically significant as it occurs near the 200-period moving average, a key level that was breached earlier in March, placing the greenback under greater short-term selling pressure.
The key economic data released was the Q4 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which showed an annualized growth rate of 2.4%, marginally above the expected 2.3%, though representing a notable slowdown from the previous quarter’s 3.1%. This growth was primarily driven by consumer spending, which rose 4%, its fastest pace since Q1 2023, and higher government expenditures (3.1%), partially offsetting declines in fixed investment and exports.
Despite the apparent economic optimism suggested by these figures, the underlying strength of the dollar remains questioned due to recent trade policy decisions by the Trump administration and the significant deterioration in consumer sentiment during Q1 2025. Particularly noteworthy is the announcement of new 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts, effective from April 3. Trump labeled this date as the "Liberation Day" for the U.S. automotive industry, asserting the primary goal is to stimulate local production and correct historically unfair trade practices.
However, substantial risks emerge from this policy, including potential disruptions to global supply chains, a significant increase in new vehicle prices (ranging from an additional $4,000 to $12,200 per unit), especially affecting electric vehicles highly dependent on imported components, and inflationary pressures that might compel the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current pause on restrictive monetary policy.
Additionally, the auto industry immediately reacted negatively, with shares of giants like General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis declining, while Canada and the European Union strongly opposed the measure, considering potential retaliatory actions that could escalate global trade tensions.
In this scenario, markets closely watch Friday’s release of the PCE inflation report and the University of Michigan's inflation expectations index, indicators that could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve's next moves. The Fed remains cautiously on the sidelines, evaluating the real impact of governmental trade policies on inflation and economic growth.
Ultimately, although today the dollar exhibited technical and fundamental weakness, its future outlook continues to hinge significantly on domestic and international political and economic dynamics, promising continued high operational volatility in the near term.
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bingooooooooBe ready, the dollar index of this sleeping dragon will wake up! Soon you will see a stunning growth of the dollar.
Skeptic | DXY Showdown: Battle at 104.403Welcome back, guys! 👋I'm Skeptic
Today, we're diving deep into the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), analyzing key levels and potential triggers.
🔍 Recap & Current Structure:
As highlighted in our previous analysis , the major daily support (0.618 Fib) held strong at 103.303 , with price reacting precisely at this level.
Currently, the DXY is testing a critical 4H resistance at 104.403 , which aligns with:
A 4H consolidation range breakout zone
A potential fakeout trap if price fails to sustain momentum
The RSI (65.92) suggests building bullish momentum, but confirmation requires a clean break above 104.403.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Long Setup):
Trigger: Break & close above 104.403
Confirmation: RSI holding above 65.92
Invalidation: Rejection + close back below 104.000
📉 Bearish Scenario (Short Setup):
Trigger: Rejection at 104.403 + drop below 103.936
Confirmation: RSI reversal below 50 + bearish 4H candle close
⚠️ Key Notes:
Fundamentals: Recent economic data favors dollar weakness—trade longs cautiously.
Risk Management: Avoid overleveraging—wait for confirmed breaks.
Stay sharp, and I’ll see you in the next analysis!
DXY - Market Structre DXY - Market Structre - long probability, simple and easy , clean chart, and use trade and risk managment
