USXUSD trade ideas
Downward trend It is expected that after some fluctuation and rise in the resistance range or the resistance trend line, a trend change will be formed and we will witness the beginning of the downward trend.
USD/JPY Pullback is inevitable
Current Situation: USD/JPY has been in a strong downtrend, evidenced by the consistent lower highs and lower lows, but it is now showing signs of a potential retracement. The pair is moving towards a demand zone around 141.764, which aligns with potential buying pressure that could trigger a bounce in the near term. As we can see on the 4HR a possible target for a pullback would be the 0.618 Fib level.
Meanwhile, the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is showing signs of retesting the 101.320 resistance.
Additionally DXY 4HR chart is already in an uptrend and looking to grow to 0.618 FIB level.
USD/JPY is currently consolidating in the a recent supply zone, it is also possibly looking to retest the supply zone around 144.000.
With momentum growing on the DXY I would be cautious taking any short positions at the moment.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 8th—> Sept 13th)Hello Investors! 🌟 September started with a sharp decline as investors pruned risk assets from their portfolios amid concerns over US economic data and rising worries about growth. Let’s break down the key events that influenced the markets this week. 📉
Market Overview:
The week opened with a broad sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto, as US Treasury yields dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year. Disappointing August ISM manufacturing data set the tone for a week of worse-than-expected economic readings, stoking fears that the elusive “soft landing” may be slipping further away. US equities gave back all the gains made in the second half of August, with much of the selling attributed to multiple compression, particularly in technology stocks. Nvidia was the most prominent example, with its stock falling ~25% from its earnings peak amid historic daily declines in market cap. The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 5,600 level, struggling above 20x next year’s earnings. By the end of the week, the S&P lost 4.2%, the Dow dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%, marking the tech index’s worst decline since November 2022.
Stock Market Performance:
📉 S&P 500: Down by 4.2%
📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.9%
📉 NASDAQ: Down by 5.8%
Economic Indicators:
WTI Crude Oil: Prices slid to their lowest levels since June 2023, prompting OPEC+ to extend its 2.2M bpd voluntary production cuts through November.
Bank of Canada: Cut rates by 25 basis points in a move to boost economic growth, while PM Trudeau faced political challenges after losing support from a key coalition partner.
JOLTS Jobs Data: Missed estimates significantly, falling below 8M job openings for just the second time this year. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped below a key Fed gauge, reinforcing the case for rate cuts.
ADP Employment Report: Hit a three-year low, showing declining pay growth for those who didn’t change jobs, adding to concerns about labor market weakness.
Fed’s Beige Book: Revealed flat or declining economic activity in nine out of twelve districts, suggesting economic sluggishness that could influence the Fed’s next moves.
August Jobs Report: Showed further labor market deceleration, with downward revisions to June and July payrolls. The report kept the door open for more aggressive Fed action, with FOMC officials signaling that at least 50 basis points will be debated at the September 18th meeting.
Treasury and FX Markets:
Yield Curve: Continued to normalize as the US 2-year yield traded 4 basis points below the 10-year rate.
Futures Markets: Priced in over 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024 and ~225 bps by September 2025.
Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: Traded close to its August lows, while the VIX volatility index rose above 23 but remained below early August highs.
Corporate News:
Docusign: Posted strong quarterly results and guidance, getting back on track after struggles during the post-pandemic period.
Hewlett Packard Enterprises: Delivered respectable earnings but saw shares fall, as investors were unimpressed with guidance.
Broadcom: Reported an uninspiring Q3, leaving investors with more questions about the pace of AI growth, contributing to broader tech sector pressure.
Nvidia: There was speculation that NVDA had received a subpoena from the DOJ, but this turned out to be false news. While they are under investigation, no formal subpoena has been served yet.
M&A News:
Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel: Faces challenges as reports suggest the Biden Administration may block the deal on national security grounds.
Verizon: Agreed to acquire Frontier Communications for $9.6B, expanding its fiber network and positioning itself for future growth.
DXY's Trend in Question: Support Holding, But Bulls need 102In my Friday analysis, I mentioned that if the DXY drops below the support zone, defined by the recent low and the year's starting price, we could expect further downside.
Initially, following the release of the NFP data, the price did decline, but it quickly reversed after reaching the support level, forming a strong bullish reversal candle with a long tail on the chart.
While we can't confirm a trend reversal yet and USD bulls are still not in out of the woods, as long as this support holds, there is a strong possibility of a move to the upside.
For a clearer medium-term outlook, we need a break above the 102 level.
If this happens, the path to 104 should open up, and we can expect the price to rise toward that zone.
DXYWe have a bunch of USD news on Wednesday that will greatly impact price movement.
MY BIAS:
Based on candle science, I see price expanding bullish to take out the high @ 101.402. Tentatively, price will maintain expansion till it takes out the high @ 101.918 before going bearish.
We wait to see market playout.
This will mean USDXXX pairs will buy till Wednesday most likely while XXXUSD pairs will sell.
DXYWe will be looking for buying opportunities as the market is respecting the floor zones resulting in buys coming in for the momentum- 1HR TIME FRAME
DOLLAR with CPI NEWSHello friends, I think the dollar will be heading downwards when the CPI data is released as shown on the map, provided it does not fall until the specified date
Daily Technical Analysis of Gold,Currencies,and Indices 9/9/2024Daily Technical Analysis for Gold, Currencies, and Indices - September 9, 2024
Introduction:
Greetings, everyone. This is Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, financial market expert, presenting the daily technical analysis for the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices for Monday, September 9, 2024.
Key Economic Data:
Before diving into the technical analysis, let’s review the key economic data expected to be released today, which may have a direct impact on price movements:
• Today, Japan will release its GDP report.
• Later this week, on Wednesday, we await significant data for the U.S. dollar, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI, along with the U.S. crude oil inventory report.
• On Thursday, the market expects the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision for the euro, along with U.S. unemployment claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI).
Technical Analysis:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
• The U.S. Dollar Index is showing signs of stability after Friday’s mixed U.S. data. Average hourly earnings increased, while the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report came in below expectations but higher than the previous figure. Unemployment rates matched prior results, adding some positive sentiment.
• The index remains in a descending channel, trading below the key resistance level of 102.
• We will not see a recovery in gains unless the price breaks above 102 on the 4-hour chart.
• Continued trading below 102 threatens further declines towards the 100.300 level.
EUR/USD:
• The pair is correcting slightly, influenced by a positive correction in the Dollar Index, but as long as prices remain above 1.1000, the positive outlook persists.
• The pair is targeting 1.1200 and 1.1350 levels.
• A break below 1.1000 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
GBP/USD:
• The pair is approaching a crucial support level at 1.3100.
• A break below this level could lead to a deeper decline, targeting 1.2900 and 1.2850.
• Holding above 1.3100 would keep the upward potential intact.
USD/JPY:
• The pair remains under pressure.
• As long as prices stay below 145 yen, the next targets are 140 yen and 134 yen.
• A break above 145 yen would invalidate the bearish outlook.
USD/CHF:
• The pair is also under pressure, with prices remaining below 0.5810, targeting 0.5700 and 0.5630.
AUD/USD:
• The pair is attempting to relinquish its gains, and a break below 0.6670 may lead to a bearish move towards 0.6500 and 0.6250.
NZD/USD:
• The pair is retreating slightly, and trading below 0.6225 could lead to further downside, targeting 0.6100 and potentially lower levels.
USD/CAD:
• The pair is capitalizing on the dollar’s correction and falling oil prices.
• If prices break above 1.3600, we could see renewed gains towards 1.3750 and 1.3900.
GBP/JPY:
• Holding below 196.90 yen signals potential for further declines, with a potential target of 184.00 yen.
EUR/JPY:
• The pair faces selling pressure, and a break below 158.00 yen may lead to a sharp decline towards 153.00 and 148.00 yen.
EUR/GBP:
• Trading below 0.8450 points to further downside targets at 0.8375 and 0.8300.
USD/TRY:
• The pair is trading around 34 lira, with potential upside towards 34.50 lira and 35 lira if prices can hold above current levels.
BTC/USD:
• Bitcoin remains under pressure, and a break below 52,000 dollars could drive the price down to 44,000 dollars.
ETH/USD:
• A break below 2,200 dollars could result in a deeper bearish wave, targeting 1,600 dollars.
XRP/USD:
• Remaining below 55 cents, XRP could face a downward move towards 46 cents and 40 cents.
Gold (XAU/USD):
• Gold is under pressure due to mixed U.S. data, but the bullish scenario remains intact as long as prices stay above 2,460 dollars per ounce.
• A continuation of gains would require a breakout above 2,520 dollars.
Crude Oil (WTI):
• Continued trading below 70 dollars per barrel could target a drop towards 62 dollars.
Silver (XAG/USD):
• Trading below 29 dollars points to a further decline, with targets at 27.50 dollars and 26 dollars.
Natural Gas (NG):
• Holding above 2.20 dollars could push prices towards 2.60 dollars and 3.20 dollars.
Dow Jones (DJIA):
• A break below 40,000 points could lead to a sharp decline, targeting 39,000 points.
NASDAQ:
• A break below 18,250 points could lead to a decline towards 17,200 and potentially 16,000 points.
FTSE (UK):
• Continued trading below 8,200 points suggests further downside, targeting 7,900 and 7,600 points.
DAX (Germany):
• A break below 18,200 points could push the DAX towards 17,500 and 16,800 points.
CAC (France):
• Trading below 7,600 points could drive the index lower, targeting 7,200 points.
Nikkei (Japan):
• Remaining below 37,000 points, we expect further downside towards 35,000 and potentially 33,000 points.
Conclusion:
Thank you for your attention. Please accept my best regards, and stay tuned for more updates.
This analysis was prepared by Mohammed Qais Abdulghani, financial market expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advisable to follow the latest economic developments for well-informed decisions.
Idea on a charthe DXY is trading near its December 2023 lows and appears poised to drop toward the July 2023 lows around the 99.60 level, particularly if NFP data disappoints. A continued decline could reinforce the downtrend that has been in place since the 2022 highs.
On the upside, the lower boundary of the trendline connecting consecutive higher lows between 2023 and 2024 is likely to offer resistance near the 102 level. A stronger-than-expected result could push the DXY higher, with potential resistance around the 104 level
DXY - HIGHER TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Here is the expected DXY path for the incoming weeks. We are working with a complex ABC pattern. We are currently in major wave B ( ZIGZAG Pattern ).
Zigzag pattern ( 5-3-5 ) is made up of 3 waves:
Wave A = 5 waves
Wave B = 3 waves
Wave C = 5 waves
Working with Wave C, we still have subwave 5 in order for major wave B to be completed. What we are looking for now is the completion of subwave 4 around 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci levels.
Watching the rejection of the 50 EMA to ride the final leg of wave C.
Will see price will react at the fib levels and update later.
Dollar Index Analysis by the Mallicast TeamIn the analysis of the Dollar Index for the second week of September by the Mallicast team, an initial correction in the downward movement from last week is expected. However, it is anticipated that after this correction, the price will once again decline. One of the key reasons behind this analysis is that the Federal Reserve has not announced any changes in the unemployment rate in its latest report, indicating stable economic conditions. This stability contributes to sustained downward pressure on the Dollar Index, which may result in further depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies.
DXY- Possible Scenario Support Zones: Two support levels are highlighted. The lower support zone acted as a point of rejection, while the higher support zone might act as a retest zone.
Rejection Area: The price has previously rejected at a key support zone around the 100.200 level, and there's a label marking this rejection.
Possible Retest Zone: After the price bounced from the support, it seems to be heading towards a potential retest of a higher support/resistance area, indicated around the 100.700 - 100.900 levels.
Price Projection: The white lines suggest two possible scenarios:
One shows a retest of the highlighted zone before a potential bullish continuation.
The other anticipates a pullback followed by another attempt to break higher.
Would you like to dive deeper into the analysis, such as determining possible trade entries or further resistance levels?
DXY │ 9 - 13 September 2024
- Daily timeframe
Swing structure is bullish and we just had a retrace into internal demand and there seems to be a strong reaction from this demand zone.
· Bullish bias
- Four-hour timeframe
The swing structure is bullish and internal is bearish, assuming that the internal is only facilitating for a pullback and we tapped into the demand zone. We have yet to breach the internal high that will indicate that we are reading to resume the swing trend.
· Bullish bias
- 15-minute timeframe
I only use the DXY for directional bias on the correlated instruments so I do not look at the lower timeframe when doing a weekly outlook
How do I come to a bias conclusion?
I look at the swing structure; if it is bearish, I conclude a bearish bias
©Austin Palmer for FONOS Fx, 2024.
Dollar index BUY scenario view....DOLLAR INDEX MY VIEW-
N.B- DXY chart hopefully create ab=cd pattern.so market need to seem to BUY correction 101.315 and 101.765 resistance level. If Then market breakout 101.950 resistance level, then market more buy to 101.800 level. If Breakdown 100.700 support level, then this case is invalid.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair,
let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions,
the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be
satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watch list and see if
the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
Dear Traders,
If you like this idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow.
DXY (Dollar) Shorts from 101.600 back downMy outlook for the dollar is focused on scouting a bearish continuation. A 7-hour supply zone has emerged, and I'm looking for the price to enter this zone to trigger a bearish reaction, potentially creating a new leg to the downside.
If the supply zone is broken, I would then anticipate the price rallying higher into a more premium supply area. However, if the price heads down first, I expect the 9-hour demand zone to be violated, allowing for a better buying opportunity from the lower demand zone.
P.S.: Be cautious and trade with care, as PPI and CPI data are due this week. Keep an eye on Forex Factory for updates.
Usd rebounced off key S,101.80 is key to clearHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
USd could be now technically in a range of 100.6 to 101.6.though i am bearish more on usd. But could be just watching to play within the h4 range.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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DXY - ANALYSISHello friends
I want to share my opinion about the dollar index with you
In the next week, I expect the US dollar to have more market range on Monday and Tuesday, and on Wednesday, when the US inflation rate is released, it will move up strongly.
My first target for the dollar index is 102.400
Trade safe
Dollar Index - Risk Off Scenario. 102.106 EQ?Playing within a tight range in this moment with Equilibrium resting @ 102.106.
Expecting fireworks next week as Wednesday and Thursday are the big volatile days based on forex factory.
Expect manipulation.
Embrace manipulation!
DXY Looks Bullish but its not. next target is 97. or way lower.if the next 3 days DXY does not close above the descending channel then its high time for a DROP. Everybody is bearish and everybody is on for a reversal.
Dollar Index (DXY): Time to Grow?!
Dollar Index has a nice potential to keep growing next week.
The market nicely respected a daily horizontal structure support,
bounced and violated a resistance line of a falling parallel channel on an hourly time frame.
The market may reach at least 101.44 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
DXY is retracing from major supportDXY is retracing from major support. It can reach to level of 102.5
DeGRAM | DXY reached the retracement levelDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
The descending structure is preserved.
The price has reached the resistance level coinciding with the 38.2% retracement level.
The chart has reached the dynamic resistance and the upper boundary of the channel.
We expect a pullback after consolidation under the resistance level.
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