USXUSD trade ideas
The weekly chart that indicates the $ will rally all of 2025
The weekly chart will tell us how things will probably playout in the months ahead.
The double bottom has much further to run.
In the immediate time-zone on a daily the dollar price is at the bottom of a triangle that it wants to have some more room.
I expect the dollar will continue its climb this week.
China - U.S. Tariff Trade War!🩸China has slapped the U.S. with 10% tariffs on Energy products & automobiles as a retaliation🩸
China’s tariffs on U.S. energy & cars will hurt American exporters by reducing demand & pushing down prices, affecting profitability. Energy producers may struggle with oversupply, while automakers like Tesla and Ford face declining sales in China.
The move escalates U.S.-China trade tensions, discouraging investment and increasing market volatility. While lower energy prices could help inflation, job losses in key industries may offset any benefits.
U.S. policymakers might respond with countermeasures. If tensions rise further, a broader trade conflict could emerge, increasing risks for the global economy.
DXY is bearish, dont be caught off guardI've been saying this since beginning of this year. I've given macro reasons. The chart is also reflecting it now.
Monthly time frame
Dxy on the monthly formed an indecison candle. I'm expecting February to close bearish to complete the formation of evening star.
Wkly time frame
A close look at the weekly timeframe will show a double top forming. And it formed after taking a critical high. And evening star has already formed here. Last week price action caused a retest and rejection from the zone
Daily time frame
Now the daily time frame is filled with patterns pointing downwards.
We start with a 3 drive pattern that has been broken to the downside. Last weeks price action offered a retest and has also moved away from it with impulse.
We can also see a classic head and shoulder pattern. Some may be seeing double top depending on how you draw it.
Market has also been following a trendline since 30th September,2024. The trendline has been broken, retested and moved away from with impulse.
In all, the trend is down.
I wonder how you guys are missing all this
Now, I know you may be confused as a result of Trump's policies and sanctions and actions and inactions. fear not, he did the same in 2017, he wants dollar to be weaker to ease purchase for average Americans. The only thing he will offer is crazy spikes. That's all
The market has already recovered from his tariff shenanigans. It's all an illusion, a fugazi to swerve you from what is really happening, dollar will be weak. At least till 4th quarter of this year. My target is still 100. Let's see how it goes
You can use any of your strategy to look for buy in cross pairs like EUR ang GBP
I will also send some for you guys, just follow me to see it on time cos I mostly enter with buy order and not limit order.
Udo diri unu
DXY (Dollar index) short from 108.800My DXY analysis aligns with the expectation of a bearish move, which suggests that my pairs—EU and GU—could push higher. However, before that, we may see a minor pullback as price moves toward a demand zone.
Price has recently broken structure to the upside, leaving behind a fresh demand level. Once price reaches this area, I anticipate accumulation before a potential move upward. I will look for opportunities to capitalize on this movement across the pairs I trade, such as Gold, EU, and GU.
The price action has been very clean so far, which is promising, and we can expect more of the same as we move further into Q1.
Have a great week ahead and remain vigilant!
US CPI week for the DXY It has been a topsy turvy week for the dollar after the week opened with news of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from the US as well as a 10% import duty on Chinese goods. The DXY spiked to a high of 109.9 before closing the week marginally lower at 108.1. The weaker than expected US NFP print however and surprisingly provided support for the DXY. This week’s price action is indicative that the ABC corrective wave has run its course and that another leg higher towards 112 is on the cards for the DXY.
The critical support range is the blue range between 107.2 and 107.5. As long as the DXY remains above this range and maintain levels above the 50-day MA at 107.8 there is nothing stopping the DXY from moving higher as the dollar milkshake theory continues to suck the DXY higher.
A break below 107.2 will however invalidate the idea and allow the DXY to drop onto the 200-day MA level of 104.8.
It is CPI week for the DXY and a stronger than expected CPI print will allow the DXY to regain its momentum and commence the start of another leg higher for the index. The US CPI print for January, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like it did back for the December print. Inflation has been ticking higher since October last year, almost right after the Fed started their cutting cycle and anything other than an inline or lower than expected CPI print will have the DXY packing and making its way to 110 and 112 thereafter since it will indicate that the Fed will stay higher for longer.
A bullish DXY I think the dollar index TVC:DXY is gonna go higher coz of the recent price action. On the daily timeframe, we had a BOS and price created a swing failure as we couldn't close above the previous month's high. Price then retraced, took out internal range liquidity, tapped into a higher timeframe POI and reacted bullish (CISD). NFP triggered buy entries from the 4H OB, which rested below the pdl. Besides, the unemployment rate data indicates strengthening of the dollar as the rates have decreased from 4.3% to 4.0% in the past 6 months. I am confident jobs are increasing in the United States and unemployment rates will decrease
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), also known as DXY, DX, or informally the "Dixie," measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six foreign currencies. It was created by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system ended. The index rises when the U.S. dollar gains strength compared to other currencies and falls when it weakens.
The USDX is calculated as a geometrically weighted average of the following currencies.
Euro (EUR): 57.6%
Japanese Yen (JPY): 13.6%
British Pound Sterling (GBP): 11.9%
Canadian Dollar (CAD): 9.1%
Swedish Krona (SEK): 4.2%
Swiss Franc (CHF): 3.6%
The value of the U.S. Dollar Index is influenced by the demand and supply of the U.S. dollar and the component currencies. Currency demand is affected by several factors, including monetary and trade policy, economic growth, inflation, geopolitical events, and financial market sentiment.
As of February 5, 2025, the U.S. gross national debt is $36.22 trillion8. On January 2, 2025, the debt limit was reinstated at $36.104 trillion. The United States breached the debt ceiling on January 21, 2025.
Here's how the debt may affect the U.S. government in the future:
Growing interest payments The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that interest payments will total $952 billion in fiscal year 2025. Interest payments are projected to rise rapidly throughout the next decade, climbing to $1.8 trillion in 2035.
Strain on essential programs Programs that millions of Americans depend on may be squeezed by interest costs on the national debt.
Slower economic growth Unsustainable debt levels may lead to slower economic growth and increase the chances of a fiscal crisis.
Limited resources Larger explicit debt means more future receipts devoted to debt service, reducing funds for public goods and services.
Fiscal policy challenges The U.S. faces several fiscal policy challenges in 2025.
Increased borrowing costs The government's annual spending on net interest has more than tripled .
Unsustainable path The federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path that poses serious economic, security, and social challenges if not addressed.
Growing Deficits The U.S. is projected to run a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion in fiscal year (FY) 2025.
High percentage of GDP Publicly held debt is projected to grow more than twice as fast as the economy, reaching 200% of the size of the economy by 2047.
many Americans don't know and don't see what is coming, its bigger than them .
disclaimer; trade at your risk and manage your risk, if you find yourself in a bad trade try as much as possible to come out of it.
US dollar will continue side way of 108-107Hey there on 4HTF US dollar looking for these three major point on level he keeps touch continue
Now we can see there 108 and will see touched downside 107 in this week where we can see a major support for buyers and will see again 109 ath record level
So this week we can see these three patterns will work as usual of US dollar
Good luck and follow like comment for more updates and analysis
DXY on high time frameDescription:
"Regarding DXY, as I mentioned on recent analysis , the price has reached the (FVG) on the monthly chart and is displaying signs of rejection. On the daily timeframe, candle formations indicate bearish momentum."
If you have any specific questions or if there are particular aspects you would like me to focus on, feel free to let me know!
Weekly FOREX Forecast Feb 10-14thThis is an outlook for the week of Feb 10-14th
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
*JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index has reacted to Weekly Supply, and we saw an attempt on Monday to make a new high fail. This was after Trump announced tariffs and all. The swing failure resulted in the market slowly turning bearish. This would mean that the other currencies can potentially find higher pricing.
As we wait for a definitive break of market structure in the currencies to the upside, selling the USD vs its currency counterparts may be the way to go this week.
The JPY may be the exception, as it continues to underperform.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DXYThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), British pound (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF). It reflects the overall strength or weakness of the dollar in the global market. The euro has the largest weight, making eurozone developments highly influential on the index. The DXY is impacted by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve monetary policy, interest rates, and geopolitical events. A rising DXY indicates a stronger dollar, while a falling DXY suggests dollar weakness. Traders use it as a key indicator of USD trends.
SELL DXYDXY Bearish Setup – Weekly High on Monday
This week, we anticipate DXY to set its high on Monday, followed by a sell-off. Short from 108.137, targeting 106.912 and 105.697, with a stop above 108.836. With CPI & PPI releases ahead, volatility is expected, but the bias remains bearish. A break below key support could accelerate downside momentum.
Use proper risk management.
Best of luck to you all.
$DXY MMSMGiven the current scenario, we maintain a bias toward the continuation of the DXY's decline, as it exhibits MMSM characteristics. Additionally, bonds have invalidated a bearish FVG on the daily timeframe after holding at a bullish PDA in discount. However, caution is essential, as we cannot ignore President Trump's statements, which are shaking the market and completely disrupting our bias
DXY AnalysisLooking at DXY, we have retraced back to discount and we are currently respecting the CE of the discount FVG, looking for a move back to 110 over the coming weeks. With NFP figures coming out strong, FEDs can still hold rates at neutral given strong employment figures, but from the previous FOMC, J Powell was leaning more towards inflation and next week's CPI will give us a clue on what to expect for June's cut, will be expecting DXY strength tho
Redistribution Phase DXYFollowing what I believe is going to be the Great Melt Up/Inflation during the Presidency of Trump, The value of the DXY and the 10 year yield will come down while assets, inflation, commodities, metals will rise. Good luck to y'all traders. Everyone seems to be running from bonds too. All in due time. DXY has one more pump inside it, which in correlation should dump BTC to the 89-91k during it's Reaccumulating Phase