DXY Analysis - MORE DOWNSIDEHere is my analysis on the DXY (US Dollar Index).
Basically, I'm expecting lower prices. Now i'm just waiting for more information on the daily and sub-daily chart to guide me in the right direction.
- R2F Trading
USXUSD trade ideas
I've Cracked the BULLISH Code in Dollar IndexDollar Index is setup for longs based on COT and other fundamental underlying conditions.
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the 100 mark in April 2025 due to a combination of trade tensions, shifting investor sentiment, and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. Key reasons include:
1. Trade War and Tariff Impact
President Donald Trump's imposition of aggressive tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese imports) and China’s retaliatory tariffs have sparked fears of a full-blown global trade war. This has unsettled financial markets, leading investors to reduce exposure to U.S. assets and the dollar.
The tariffs have disrupted trade flows, increased inflationary pressures, and raised concerns about slower economic growth in the U.S., which undermines the dollar’s appeal.
2. Declining Safe-Haven Demand
Traditionally, the dollar benefits as a safe-haven currency during global uncertainty. However, in 2025, investors are increasingly turning to gold, which hit record highs above $3,300and headed to 3400 as an alternative safe haven. This shift reflects doubts about the dollar’s reliability amid trade tensions and fiscal imbalances.
3. Concerns Over U.S. Economic Growth and Recession Risks
Rising fears of a U.S. recession, fueled by tariff-induced economic headwinds and slowing corporate earnings, have dampened confidence in the dollar.
The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and signals of potential rate cuts later in 2025 have also contributed to weakening the dollar, as lower interest rates reduce the currency's yield advantage.
4. Political and Policy Uncertainty
Market unease has been heightened by President Trump’s public threats to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence and future monetary policy direction.
Political noise and uncertainty over trade negotiations, especially with China, have further pressured the dollar.
5. Technical and Market Sentiment Factors
Technically, the DXY has broken below key support levels, including the 200-day simple moving average (~104.6) and the psychologically important 100 level, signaling bearish momentum.
Summary Table of Factors Driving DXY Below 100
Factor Impact on DXY
Trade War Tariffs = Reduced dollar demand, increased volatility
Shift to Gold as Safe Haven= Dollar loses safe-haven status
U.S. Economic Slowdown Fears= Weaker growth outlook dampens dollar strength
Fed Policy Uncertainty = Rate cut expectations reduce dollar yield
Political Risks = Fed independence concerns add to uncertainty
Technical Breakdown = Breach of key supports fuels bearish momentum
Conclusion
The DXY’s fall below 100 reflects a complex mix of trade-related economic risks, diminished safe-haven demand, political uncertainty, and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Unless these issues ease—such as through trade deal progress, clearer Fed guidance, or economic stabilization—the dollar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
DXY Faces Continued Downtrend in Elliott Wave Bearish PatternThe Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a significant decline since President Trump’s tariff war intensified global trade tensions. From its peak on September 26, 2022, the Index has exhibited a clear bearish sequence. This decline aligns with an Elliott Wave structure, offering insights into potential future price action.
The current bearish sequence is unfolding as a corrective zigzag pattern, labeled ((A))-((B))-((C)). Waves ((A)) and ((B)) have completed, and the Index is now in the ((C)) leg. Wave ((C)) leg subdivides into a strong five-wave impulse to the downside. Based on Fibonacci extensions, the projected target for this decline lies between 85.5 and 94.9. This corresponds to the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels from the prior structure. This zone represents a critical support area where buyers may attempt to step in.
In the shorter cycle, the DXY is expected to face resistance in a 3, 7, or 11-swing corrective rally. As long as the pivot at 103.5 holds, the bearish momentum should persist, driving the index toward the Fibonacci target zone. Traders should monitor these levels closely, as a break above 103.5 could invalidate the immediate bearish setup, while continued failures at resistance reinforce the downside bias.
This Elliott Wave outlook suggests the DXY remains vulnerable, with the tariff war’s ripple effects continuing to pressure the dollar. Stay vigilant for price action near the 85.5 – 94.9 range for potential reversal signals.
DXY SINGLING DANGER!Any Time The Dollar Gets In This Range Bad Things Happen!
With the exception of the 2008 GFC which confirmed we have entered Debt Deflation (Meaning the Gov will need to borrow more and more, faster and faster without any benefit to the real economy). A strong dollar is signaling something very bad is coming.
Gun to head I would guess something like an Asian Currency Crisis. Russian ruble & economic collapse is now a certainty! Russia has lost the war no matter what they are trying to do on the battlefield it is irrelevant as the economy is now suffering from Dutch Disease. (So Much for the BRICS fantasy!)
Most Americans believe a strong dollar is good. They are wrong. Here are a few things to know about a strong US Dollar.
1. A strong dollar weakens exports, costing American jobs as everything America made becomes more expensive to the rest of the world.
2. US Imports increase as everything internationally made becomes cheaper.
3. Acquiring USD as foreign reserves becomes much more difficult and expensive. As exporters to the US have to produce more for less $s.
4. US investment in international currency collapses, forcing inflation, rates higher making borrowing/investment in foreign economies weaker. Leading to a snowball effect.
5. Commodities are traded in USD. As such energy/food to many poor nations will become a problem as they are net importers with already limited access to NYSE:S it will be magnified.
6. Finally (I could go on but I won't you get the point) when everyone leans on one side of the boat it capsizes. Meaning when everyone is running to invest in the US & the dollar.
Techanically how high can the USD go?
-120 is likely. (hopefully not much more)
-Longer term if things get bad enough it can break all-time highs of 165 as we have this massive bottoming inverse HEAD & SHOULDERS in place. CARNAGE!
- What I hope will happen is that it hits previous recent highs of 115 and that will be it for the upside. HOWEVER!
We do have a rising structure that needs to be corrected. As such when it does correct there is a good possibility it tests previous lows.
For now, if you live in the US. enjoy dollar strength and think about how much worse inflation would have been if the $ was weakening. ))
DXY is Strugglig to GrowHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 102 zone, DXY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend a 102 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Part Two)📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar: Part Two 🔄🔥
Part 1:
As we kick off the week on April 21st, we find gold hitting historic highs of $3,400 while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to slide — down 1.42% and firmly below the psychological 100 level. 📉 The breakdown at 99.3 confirms what we mapped out months ago.
Back in February, I highlighted the rejection at the 107.5 level and predicted that 2025 would mark The Year of the Normalized Dollar. That vision is unfolding exactly as drawn.
🔍 Technical Breakdown Recap
Rejection Zone: 107.5
Mid Support Breached: 100.95
Breakdown Level: 99.3
Next Target Range: 94.6–93.7 🧭
The visuals attached here are not new drawings — this is the same framework from my February 25th analysis, and it's playing out beautifully. 📊 The DXY is on a structural path toward normalization, aligning with macro policy shifts.
🗣️ Policy Catalyst
The dollar’s weakness isn’t just technical — it’s political and economic. Trump’s continued pressure on the Fed to slash interest rates, combined with tariff talk and geopolitical realignment, is creating a push toward a weaker but more "normalized" dollar.
From the Executive Order remarks on Jan 23, 2025:
“I'd like to see interest rates come down a lot. When oil comes down, prices come down — and then no inflation.”
These aren't just words — they're shaping market expectations and price action.
💬 Is this the soft landing the Fed is hoping for? Or the beginning of something bigger for DXY bears?
Drop your thoughts below and let’s keep the conversation rolling.
🎯 Charts attached for reference.
📢 Follow for more macro breakdowns & chart-focused insights.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
DXY Roadmap April 2025This was the highest likelihood trade based on Trumpian policy and asymmetric positioning at the start of the year. People will never learn it seems
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.22
1st Support: 97.47
1st Resistance: 101.83
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NEW WORLD ORDER BLUEPRINT : THE GRAND DESIGN I have said everything in prior posts
but this analysis dates to ray dalios hegemony video
looks like this is the time
so dxy will rebound in value good news will spur the economic tank willthen crash trump vs powell you cant rig the economy couple this with the bad after taste of tariffs negative sentiment from the world no one coming to sretch their hand out then boom
ni hao wo jiao Lao Ban Muji, wo ai bin qili
ai, shuo, follow
zaijian
DXY: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 98.127 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 98.393.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY Bearish Pennant Breakdown | More Downside Ahead?The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has broken down from a well-defined bearish pennant pattern on the 4H chart, signaling continuation of the prevailing downtrend.
🔹 Technical Setup:
Pattern: Bearish Pennant
Breakdown Level: Below 99.00
Target: ~94.50 based on pennant pole projection
Confirmation: Clear follow-through after breakdown, low volume consolidation
🔹 Fundamentals:
Weak U.S. economic data and dovish Fed expectations continue to weigh on the dollar.
Rising gold and commodity prices further support DXY downside.
📌 Outlook: As long as DXY trades below 99.00 resistance, bearish momentum is likely to extend toward the 94.50 target zone.
NOTE: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Always do your own research.
Dollar has next 4 years (Be greedy when others are fearful)The world is changing fast, and the next four years may be strong for the U.S. dollar . This is not random— it's part of a cycle . Greed-fear cycle
Right now, humanity is entering a time where AI will take over most service-based jobs . Lawyers, designers, consultants—even coders—are slowly being replaced by machines. The entire service economy is becoming automated.
When that happens, only countries with real manufacturing will survive.
That’s why what President Trump said earlier about “bringing back manufacturing” makes full sense now.
When services become automated, tangible assets rise.
And the dollar may lead this shift.
DOLLAR INDEXThe Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance in April 2025 is characterized by a cautious, data-dependent approach amid mixed economic signals and heightened uncertainty, particularly due to the impact of tariffs and trade tensions.
Key Points on the Fed’s Monetary Policy This Month
Interest Rates: The Fed has maintained the federal funds target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, holding steady without changes in April. The Committee is carefully assessing incoming data before considering any adjustments to rates.
Balance Sheet Reduction: Starting in April, the Fed slowed the pace of its balance sheet runoff by reducing the monthly cap on Treasury securities redemptions from $25 billion to $5 billion, while maintaining the cap on agency debt and mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion. This move smooths the transition from abundant reserves but does not signal a change in the overall policy stance.
Economic Outlook and Risks:
The economy continues to expand modestly with a solid labor market, but inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2% target.
The Fed acknowledges increased uncertainty due to tariffs, which may simultaneously slow growth and push inflation higher, creating a challenging policy environment. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the potential conflict between the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in this context.
The Fed is prepared to adjust policy as appropriate, depending on how economic data evolve, but currently prefers to "stand pat" and await clearer signals on the economy’s response to tariffs and other factors.
Inflation and Employment: Inflation is gradually declining but remains above target. The labor market is solid but expected to soften somewhat due to slower growth and tariff effects, with unemployment forecasted to rise modestly over the next year.
Forward Guidance: The Fed’s communication emphasizes patience and data dependency, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for May 6-7, where further policy decisions will be evaluated based on new economic information.
Summary
Aspect Current Fed Stance (April 2025)
Federal Funds Rate Held steady at 4.25%–4.50%
Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed Treasury runoff to $5B/month
Inflation Elevated but gradually declining
Labor Market Solid but expected to soften
Tariff Impact Significant uncertainty; potential stagflation risk
Policy Outlook Patient, data-dependent; no immediate rate changes
Next FOMC Meeting May 6-7, 2025
In essence, the Fed is maintaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance this month, balancing between controlling inflation and supporting employment amid trade-related uncertainties. It is closely monitoring economic data before making further moves, signaling readiness to adjust policy if risks to growth or inflation intensify.
DXY Is Bullish! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 99.408.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 101.388 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/USD Analysis: Weekly & Daily Timeframes
In this analysis, I explored the EUR/USD pair, identifying significant patterns and potential trade opportunities. The weekly timeframe shows a strong support level, while the daily chart highlights short-term resistance. Combining these insights with the DXY index, we can better understand market dynamics.
US Dollar Index Decline in Wave C of A FlatTVC:DXY - has been trading lower from the 110 peak in wave "c" of a larger flat. We are currently in the late stages of wave (3) of "c".
DXYU.S Dollar Index
- Breakout of Demand Zone
- Exp FIAT as an corrective pattern in Long Time Frame
- Change of Characteristics
- Break of Structure
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " AB " Corrective Waves
USDX-BUY straegy Daily chart Regression channelThe USDX shows clearly we should be cautious in selling USD, and this applies across the board. Based on channel and the extreme case we are in, we can bounced back ttowards 101.20-101.70 area in the near term.
Strategy BUY @ 97.80 - 98.20 and take proft in stages 1. @ 100.37 and 2. 101.57.
dollar index just as explained in my videos, we can see it has been bearish a some while now, so price action would tell us our right direction on this index. watch and follow for more
.DXY M30 ANALYSIS UPDATES
🕒 **DXY M30 Analysis**
📉 Price touched the **support zone** at **97.70 – 97.78** after a strong sell-off.
🔁 A **potential reversal** is forming at this level – key area to watch!
📈 If bulls take control, next targets:
- 🔹 **98.60** (interim resistance)
- 🔹 **99.62 – 99.70** (major resistance zone)
⚠️ Keep an eye on price action around 98.06 – confirmation needed before any long entries.
#DXY #M30 #ForexAnalysis #USD #ReversalZone 🚀📊
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Long term Long!Hello all. as you see my last Long term forecast was exact and I think it is time to go up. it is risky.(wink)
