Dollar - Slightly Bullish Short Term but overall bearishDollar
Just expressing my feel on the dollar for the coming week
USXUSD trade ideas
DXY Short Term longAt least that's why the tea leaves say TVC:DXY
RSI positive divergence
Fib support
DXY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DXY for a selling opportunity around 99.300 zone, DXY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 99.300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DXY Eyes Key Long-Term Support from 2008The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading near three-year lows, reflecting concerns over economic fragility and heightened geopolitical tensions.
If price action holds below 97, the DXY could face additional pressure, potentially descending toward the lower boundary of a long-term channel that has held since the 2008 lows. Key support levels at 96 and 94 may offer potential rebound zones.
Monthly RSI reflects more downside potential towards oversold conditions last seen in 2021. To reverse the current bearish momentum, the index would need to regain and hold above the 100-mark, which could shift sentiment back toward a bullish rebound outlook against the markets.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
DXY; MARKETS JITTERS AND UNCERTAINTIES.The DXY did not hold a successful break above 99.000 which was our bullish signal. Furthermore, we had US banks closed for yesterday's NY session which did not do us any good as there was minimal movements in our charts. Without volatility there is little room for profit chasing as much as our USDJPY signal was on point.
Today's session started with a gap lower towards 98.50. I don't expect a mover lower before filling the gap so that will be our first objective before any further movement. My bias still remains the same ,a clean break and hold above 99.00 will signal a healthier dollar for the short term despite the war tensions.
DXY – U.S. Dollar Faces Downside RiskAfter a period of strength driven by its safe-haven appeal, the DXY is showing signs of weakness as doubts emerge over the true resilience of the U.S. economy. Recent data — including retail sales, industrial production, and consumer sentiment — have all fallen short of expectations, raising the likelihood that the Fed may pivot to a more dovish stance sooner than anticipated.
As a market analyst closely monitoring capital flows, I believe the dollar is gradually losing its edge. With risk appetite improving and capital rotating into the euro and other risk assets, the DXY is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
Current outlook: Bearish bias, especially if the Fed softens its tone and weak U.S. data persists.
The market is waiting for confirmation — but the pressure is already building.
DXY OUTLOOK - SWING SETUPThe dollar has been on a six-month decline, but I anticipate a recovery. This is primarily due to the current economic climate, geopolitical landscape, and the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven currency during periods of significant uncertainty
"May fortune attend thee, and thy trade prosper." .......L2Earned
US dollar, a potential bullish divergence to watchThe US Federal Reserve (FED) recently updated its economic projections against a backdrop of growing uncertainty. It is now openly concerned about a scenario of stagflation, a combination of weak growth, persistent inflation and rising unemployment. This concern stems in particular from the as yet unquantified impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, as well as rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
Gloomy forecasts, but monetary policy still flexible
At its last meeting, the FED kept its key rate in the 4.25% - 4.5% range, while publishing gloomy forecasts for the US economy. By the end of 2025, it anticipates PCE inflation at around 3%, unemployment at 4.5% and moderate growth. Despite this worrying picture, the central bank is still planning two rate cuts this year, demonstrating its determination to support economic activity.
Nevertheless, this monetary stance is the subject of debate within the committee: ten members support the cuts, while seven believe that rates should remain unchanged. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the FED, advocates caution, insisting on the need to observe the evolution of economic data before acting, particularly in view of the delayed effects of tariffs.
The FED is faced with a dilemma: it must curb inflation without destroying growth. Its diagnosis of stagflation is harsh, but perhaps too pessimistic if inflation figures remain under control. A rate cut in September is still conceivable, but will largely depend on the evolution of geopolitical tensions and international trade in the weeks ahead.
Below, you can see the table with the latest update of the FED's macroeconomic projections
US dollar (DXY), a potential bullish technical divergence to be monitored
The FED's confirmed intransigence is having an impact on the foreign exchange market. While the US dollar has been the weakest Forex currency since the beginning of the year, it has been stabilizing for several weeks now. If the FED maintains its current wait-and-see stance on a resumption of Fed funds rate cuts, the US dollar could be close to a low point on the Forex market.
At present, there are no resistance breaches to suggest this, but a potential bullish technical divergence has appeared on the weekly timeframe. In the past, this signal was a precursor to a future rebound in the US dollar against a basket of major Forex currencies.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 98.48
1st Support: 98.09
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
US DOLLAR: Sell opportunity following channel breakPrice on DXY recently broke above a sharp descending channel, but the move lacked presence. There was no real follow-through and certainly no conviction behind the candles. It felt hesitant, as this is a great indication for us to use.
Instead of accelerating upward, price now hovers just above the breakout, this kind of behavior suggests rather a random push than a shift in sentiment. Without the strength to sustain above structure, I think we will see the price come back to the channel's lower border.
And when breakouts fail, they often trap early longs, preparing for a more committed move in the opposite direction.
A rejection from this level could send price into the 0.85800 level.
dollar elliott wave countingdxy is falling since it peaked in Q4 2022
since their last 75bps hike dollar is constantly falling and stocks, gold, bitcoin constantly rising and making new all time high
wave W = wave Y
(equal in length, 100% projection for wave Y)
since starting of the year due to trump tariff dollar is falling
this is year in first half dollar saw biggest collapse since end of gold standard
now 100% projection target for wave Y at 95 area is big static support level
if dxy recover back to 100 area then this will be first sign of reversal
just slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLYjust slightly kidding, yes or no DXY MONTHLY\
bullish. so very bullish
let us know!
free transparent no edit no delete
🐉We value full transparency. All wins and fails fully publicized, zero edit, zero delete, zero fakes.🐉
🐉Check out our socials for some nice insights.🐉
information created and published doesn't constitute investment advice!
NOT financial advice
DXY UpdateAs expected the dollar has decreased in value over the past couple weeks as seen with my earlier post
We have come to a key level here for the dollar. FX tends to move in prolonged waves of price increases and decreases so this could potentially be the be the start of a prolonged decline
U.S. dollar index DXY analysis- daily time frame ✅ U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Analysis — Daily Timeframe
👤 A TVC:DXY trader’s perspective:
When I look at this chart, several key points immediately stand out:
1️⃣ Long-Term Trend
On the weekly and daily timeframe, the major trend has turned bearish after peaking around 114. We see a clear series of lower highs and lower lows confirming the downtrend.
The sharp rally from 89 to 114 in the past was a strong impulsive move, which is now undergoing a deep correction. Currently, price is hovering around a major historical support near 96.
2️⃣ Key Support Zone
The current price near 96.7 is sitting right at a significant support area that has triggered considerable buying interest in the past.
If this support decisively breaks, the green zone marked as DD (around 93–95) represents a strong long-term demand zone and will likely be the next liquidity target for buyers.
3️⃣ Resistance (Supply Zones)
The four red-marked 4HR zones between 97 and 101.9 clearly show significant supply zones where sellers have stepped in on lower timeframes.
Should the price attempt a bounce from current levels, these resistance areas may act as a strong barrier to further upside.
4️⃣ Price Structure and Liquidity
Looking more closely, the market seems to be moving from a consolidation phase toward lower support liquidity. That means there is a high probability of a liquidity grab toward the 93–95 area before a potential fresh bullish leg.
At higher levels, unless the price can break and hold above 98 and then 100, we cannot confirm a trend reversal.
🔹 Summary
✅ Overall downtrend remains dominant
✅ 96–97 is a critical support zone
✅ A break below this support targets 93–95
✅ Trend reversal only possible with a confirmed break and hold above 98, and then 100–101
✅ The 4HR resistance zones (97–101) are strong hurdles for any bullish retracement
✅ As long as price remains below 98, any rally is likely just a corrective move
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. All trading decisions are solely your own responsibility.
DXY at the Crossroads: How the 108–110 could reshape the market
Key Highlights
The U.S. Dollar Index TVC:DXY is currently near an important resistance level of 108–110.
A potential reversal of the dollar at this level could lead to further growth in stock markets and strengthen cryptocurrencies, while a break above 110+ would continue to put pressure on risk assets.
If CAPITALCOM:DXY surpasses 110 and holds above it, there is a possibility of reaching as high as the 120 mark. A rejection from the 108–110 zone would indicate a downward trend developing, possibly pushing the index toward the 98 area or lower.
Future outcomes will depend on Federal Reserve monetary policy, global demand for the dollar and other safe-haven assets, as well as overall economic stability.
What about crypto?
There are serious risks for CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 & CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS
A long-term perspective on ICEUS:DXY suggests that “alt seasons” tend to occur during periods of dollar weakness. Currently, the 108–110 zone and the MA50-W are pivotal. A potential DXY reversal here may act as a catalyst for another major altcoin rally in the coming months, while continued dollar strength could postpone any such “alt season.”
Shaka
USXUSD LOTWUSXUSD LOTW Potentially In.
H1 BOS confirms this for me. Targeting H4 Internal Liquidity & Daily FVG.
Let's see.
Tariffs your time is up!
Tariff pauses are ending on July 9th. Even if expected deals aren't reach, it's expect that we won't pause again. Expecting the dollar to regain strength into this date.
DXY Game Plan - USD IndexIt is important to watch the DXY to understand the strength of the USD across global markets.
The DXY is a key index that reflects the U.S. dollar’s dominance in foreign exchange. Therefore, tracking it can provide valuable insights into the potential direction of all major asset classes.
In this post, I’ll break down both technical and fundamental expectations.
Technical Analysis
DXY has been in a retracement phase (bearish) since January 2025. During this time, we’ve seen EUR and other major forex pairs form strong bullish trends.
Currently, the DXY is approaching a weekly bullish trendline, where I expect a potential bounce.
Additionally, DXY is trading within a discount zone (below the 0.5 Fibonacci level, also known as equilibrium). Personally, I’m watching for a deeper move into the maximum discount zone (around the 0.75 Fib level).
This area also aligns with key liquidity concepts. Ideally, I want to see a deviation below the bullish trendline, with a sweep of one of the weekly liquidity levels marked on the chart (two black horizontal lines).
I'm not relying on a clean triangle trendline retest, but it's a possibility.
Game Plan
DXY taps the bullish trendline
Deviates below it, running weekly liquidity (black lines)
Hits the max discount zone (~0.75 Fib)
Then shows signs of reversal and strength
Once that setup completes, I’ll be expecting strong USD performance, and will look to short risk assets — including stocks and major forex pairs.
Fundamental Analysis
The Federal Reserve is currently resisting pressure to cut interest rates, while Trump is vocally pushing for rate cuts.
The market is already pricing in a 79% probability of a September rate cut (source: CME FedWatch Tool), so if that happens as expected, I don’t anticipate major market reaction.
However, a surprise rate cut in July would likely trigger a flash crash in DXY/USD — though based on my game plan, I would expect a V-shaped recovery shortly afterward.
EUR, GBP, AUD, and CAD have also hit key resistance zones, so I believe we're likely to see USD strength for a while.
Weekly Outlook. Dollar Strength🗓 Economic Outlook – 2025-06-30 💹 RSI Divergence and Dollar Strength 🟢 Summary
A bearish divergence in the RSI combined with strong U.S. fundamentals suggests continued upward pressure on the Dollar Index (DXY). This trend may persist, particularly if upcoming economic data supports current expectations. 📊 Technical Insight
RSI Divergence Observed
On the DXY chart, we observe a hidden bullish divergence in the RSI, where price makes a higher low while RSI makes a lower low.
This pattern suggests potential continuation of the uptrend despite short-term corrections.
🧮 Fundamental Overview
ADP Employment Report (Wednesday)
Expected stronger results could support the dollar’s bullish trend through next week.
Watch for surprise upside in employment numbers.
NFP Index
Currently above 100, indicating a healthy U.S. economy.
Even if it reaches 120 as expected, the impact may be muted due to prior pricing-in by the market.
"I try to share an overview of the data a day in advance to give you a general perspective."
🔴Remember, the long-term outlook for the dollar is bearish.🔴
DXY: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 96.706 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 96.819.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DXY RANGING Today we see DXY in a ranging phase after seeing a BOS on the H4 timeframe
Expecting retracement to the upside
Pairs to watch out for
Euro Dollar and the Pound Dollar
OANDA:EURUSD OANDA:GBPUSD
OANDA:AUDUSD OANDA:NZDUSD
Bullish on EURUSD till Q1 2026Looking at the chart, I remained bullish on the Euro dollars for the mid term.
Those who followed , would have made some good profits.
Any pullback on EURUSD remains a good entry to accumulate.
As usual, please DYODD
DXY - 4H - UPDATEBears tried again on Friday but buyers stepped in and defended the low.
What's next?
If DXY can hold the price above Friday's low, it may set up a bounce.
The R/R is quite attractive. I will keep it on my radar for a potential trade tomorrow.
