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USD Index (USX) / US Dollar

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USD Tests Long-Term Support + Weekly OversoldLast week I highlighted the oversold reading on the weekly DXY chart. While bulls didn't exactly put in a massive showing it was also one of the first green weekly bars in a month. Notably, the monthly April bar looks very bearish but the bulk of those losses were in the first 11 days of the month and last week, on Monday, a massive spot of support came into play at the 38.2% retracement of the 2008-2024 major move. This is confluent with a trendline projection, connecting 2001 and 2020 highs, which had come in to hold support back in July of 2023. This adds context to the possibility of a pullback in the USD and this meshes with the 1.1500 resistance test in EUR/USD. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY is entering the Smart Money play — Are you ready Temporary selling pressure is unfolding, but a powerful bullish reversal zone is on the horizon! Don’t miss this key USD cycle setup The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently breaking down for a temporary selling phase, approaching a high-probability demand zone between 96.40–98.00. According to the Smart Money Concept, institutional players are clearing liquidity before driving price back towards the higher supply zone (106–110). Key Insights: – Temporary Sell-Off: Price is moving toward the demand zone – Bullish Reversal Expected: Watch for signs of accumulation around 96.40–98.00 – Next Target: Supply zone near 106+ levels – Strategy: Monitor for bullish confirmation before longing Stay ahead with clean Smart Money setups —
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Greenfireforex
"DXY is building a textbook bullish flag — here’s exactly where For Traders (technical + confident) DXY bulls gearing up for a double-leg rally” 1. Context & Market Structure: After a sharp impulsive drop (green falling wedge), DXY has begun corrective accumulation in an ascending channel. Current price 99.531 is consolidating inside a broadening bullish flag pattern. Key Zones: Major supply zone: 100.500 – 101.000 (highlighted yellow box) Short-term resistance: 99.700 Short-term support: 98.8Projected Path (2 bullish legs): First push (red path): Minor pullback → break to ~100.100 Second push (blue path): Consolidation → breakout towards 100.500–101.000 (target zone) 00–98.500 Bias: Short-term bullish → Targeting supply zone around 100.5–101.0 Invalidation level: Clear break below 98.500 (would negate bullish setup) > Trade Idea: Buy on dips within the ascending flag, targeting 100.100 and 100.500 Watch reaction near supply zone for possible reversal or continuation
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Greenfireforex
DOLLARThe Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts. Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement: The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with the labor market remaining strong and unemployment stable at low levels. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with core inflation around 2.6%. The Committee highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which could raise both inflation and unemployment risks. The Fed is taking a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming economic information. The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as part of monetary policy normalization. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed does not plan preemptive rate cuts and will monitor how tariffs affect inflation and growth before making further moves. Market and Economic Context: Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth amid tariff pressures, the Fed resisted, citing the need to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The Fed noted the risk of stagflation-a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation-due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures. Market expectations shifted after the meeting, with traders now pricing in a lower probability of near-term rate cuts, pushing the first likely cut to July or later in 2025 Summary of Geopolitical and Economic Risks Impacting the Fed’s Decision: Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China remain a major source of uncertainty, affecting business confidence, supply chains, and inflation dynamics. Inflation pressures from tariffs and supply disruptions complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting. Labor market strength provides some support for the economy, but downside risks from trade policies are growing. The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown or rise in unemployment. In brief: The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty, especially tariff-related risks. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to adjust policy as clearer data emerge on inflation, employment, and growth impacts from trade policies. Impact on the US Dollar The dollar stabilized and experienced a slight "micro bounce" ahead of the Fed meeting, partly due to optimism about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. However, broad skepticism remains about the dollar’s strength amid economic uncertainty and ongoing capital outflows from U.S. assets by major Asian investors. Market consensus expects the dollar’s longer-term weakness to persist, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth and tariff-related disruptions. Impact on Bond Markets The Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook have led to flattening or modest declines in Treasury yields, as investors price in delayed rate cuts and economic slowdown risks. Uncertainty about trade policy and inflation is keeping bond markets volatile, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid stagflation concerns. Impact on Gold Prices Gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and a weaker dollar environment. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady without signaling imminent cuts keeps real yields low or negative, which is bullish for gold. Tariff-related inflation and geopolitical risks (including U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan conflict risks, and Middle East instability) continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a hedge.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DOLLARThe Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts. Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement: The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with the labor market remaining strong and unemployment stable at low levels. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with core inflation around 2.6%. The Committee highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which could raise both inflation and unemployment risks. The Fed is taking a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming economic information. The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as part of monetary policy normalization. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed does not plan preemptive rate cuts and will monitor how tariffs affect inflation and growth before making further moves. Market and Economic Context: Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth amid tariff pressures, the Fed resisted, citing the need to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. The Fed noted the risk of stagflation-a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation-due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures. Market expectations shifted after the meeting, with traders now pricing in a lower probability of near-term rate cuts, pushing the first likely cut to July or later in 2025 Summary of Geopolitical and Economic Risks Impacting the Fed’s Decision: Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China remain a major source of uncertainty, affecting business confidence, supply chains, and inflation dynamics. Inflation pressures from tariffs and supply disruptions complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting. Labor market strength provides some support for the economy, but downside risks from trade policies are growing. The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown or rise in unemployment. In brief: The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty, especially tariff-related risks. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to adjust policy as clearer data emerge on inflation, employment, and growth impacts from trade policies. Impact on the US Dollar The dollar stabilized and experienced a slight "micro bounce" ahead of the Fed meeting, partly due to optimism about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. However, broad skepticism remains about the dollar’s strength amid economic uncertainty and ongoing capital outflows from U.S. assets by major Asian investors. Market consensus expects the dollar’s longer-term weakness to persist, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth and tariff-related disruptions. Impact on Bond Markets The Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook have led to flattening or modest declines in Treasury yields, as investors price in delayed rate cuts and economic slowdown risks. Uncertainty about trade policy and inflation is keeping bond markets volatile, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid stagflation concerns. Impact on Gold Prices Gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and a weaker dollar environment. The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady without signaling imminent cuts keeps real yields low or negative, which is bullish for gold. Tariff-related inflation and geopolitical risks (including U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan conflict risks, and Middle East instability) continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a hedge.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
USD is Bearish, SO BUY EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD CHF & JPY!In this video, we will update Saturday's forecasts mid-week, and look for valid setup for the rest of the week ahead. The following FX markets will be analyzed: USD Index EURUSD GBPUSD AUDUSD NZDUSD USDCAD USDCHF USDJPY Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or other wise. In this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
TVC:DXY
by RT_Money
DXY Bullish scenario (Daily)Dxy is still respecting the market maker buy model idea. Monday traded inside friday range. Today (Tuesday) price already traded above monday previous high signaling bullish momentum and a higher probability to trade also above friday high. Right now price is consolidating between a daily bullish fair value gap and a bearish daily volume imbalance. With the information we have, price is likelly to shop arround with no clear direction before FOMC. For the current week price is still in the manipulation phase. Traders will find higher probability trades after FOMC.
TVC:DXYLong
by josefreis
Could this be DXY's fate amidst the dovish tentions? #FEDS📈 Most Likely Probability: Neutral-to-Slightly Bullish Bias 🔍 Supporting Fundamentals: Stronger-than-expected NFP: Suggests economic resilience → supports dollar strength. Fed holding rates steady (but no dovish pivot): Keeps real yields relatively attractive → supports demand for USD. Tariff/trade calm: Reduces tail risk, but also reduces safe-haven flow → slightly neutral. 📉 Limiting Fundamentals: Calmer global risk sentiment and improved outlook in emerging markets may reduce dollar inflows. No fresh hawkish push from the Fed = limited fuel for strong breakout. 📊 Technical Outlook (DXY near 100.00): Key Support: ~99.70–100.00 (9-day EMA + psychological support) Key Resistance: ~100.50–101.00 zone Momentum: Slight recovery attempts with weakening bearish momentum If the DXY holds above 99.70 and breaks above 100.50, a move toward 101.00 is likely next week. Failing to hold 99.70 could open a pullback toward 99.00.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Pipsey_hustle