Dxy aka usd short term bullishAs price broke above the ending diagonal strongly, my bias is now bullish for usd, it should rise higher before another leg lower.
Good luck
USXUSD trade ideas
DXY Bullish ReversalThe dollar index has been bearish for a couple of weeks now and considering the current price reaction from Daily support level and positive news release for the dollar, we are most likely going to see the dollar strengthen for a while.
Bounce before diving below 100I think it's time to retrace before next fall
Bounce before diving below 100
0.38% of current fall retrace possible.
Rest everything on chart
The DXY extends its decline, maintaining a bearish sentiment The DXY extends its decline, maintaining a bearish sentiment as it sweeps imbalances toward 100.370. Meanwhile, the gold market remains bullish, benefiting from the weakening dollar. Traders should watch for further downside in DXY and potential strength in gold FOLLOW FOR MORE INSIGHTS , COMMENT AND BOOST IDEA
DXY April 3 Analysis DXY April 3 Analysis
*My parent bias is bear
*News 8:30 & 10
*Previous session price is in a discount the and in a discount on current trading range.
April 2 Analysis
Fantastic sell off that I was suspecting in NY. Price did not reach for the buy side I suspected however, In Asia Price did take very minor buy side at the 3 macro London and starting selling from a Premium. Retraced before NY open. And continued to sell off. Nice silver bullet at 10 macro, coming into the hourly FVG. Small retracement at 12 and small consolidation. At 16:00 huge retracement and wick sell off to make the low of the week I was again looking for. Notice how Price took weeks of sell side in 1 day. Great delivery.
April 3 Idea
I could see Price in Asia and London continue to sell off completing the rebalancing of the hourly FVG and seek the clean equal lows. Reassess for NY after that. That said there are 2 new drivers in NY to be open to reading what the chart gives me.
Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
DXY - market structurehi, try to keep position and have a very nice and big SL, dont try to predict or take every trade if you dont have experience
DXY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 104.207.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 102.727 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Potential Moves for DXYOn the H4 chart, DXY presents two potential paths. It appears that the bottom is in, as the price is painfully escaping a Wyckoff accumulation phase.
A key level to watch is 105.615, where a gap may need to be filled. Once this level is reached, the next move will depend on the retracement momentum. If bullish strength persists, DXY is likely to continue upward toward the 106.172 resistance level.
The broader market is feeling the impact of DXY’s movements, with all USD pairs experiencing pressure. Given the turbulent nature of exiting a Wyckoff phase, volatility should be expected.
⚠️ Risk Warning: These are my personal views, not financial advice (NFA). Trade carefully.
DXY April 1 AnalysisDXY April 1 Analysis
*My parent bias is still bear coming into this week.
*News 10
*Previous session price is in a premium and in a discount on current trading range in a consolidation cycle.
Price opened in Asia to the down side taking sell side from last Thursday, creating equal lows, London Price retraced to the 50 level which was my original target and in NY rebalance Fridays FVG closing in consolidation.
I suspected higher prices for the beginning of this week. Great delivery. Today I suspect that Price will come up to take the noted buy side and seek to rebalance the noted FVG, possibly take the noted clean equal highs.
I am bull on this day.
Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
DXY:Seize the opportunity to sell short at high pricesThe situation in the Middle East is clearly deteriorating, which undoubtedly has a huge stimulating effect on the global risk aversion sentiment. More funds have started to seek safe havens. However, the best choice at present is not the US dollar. With the continuous rise of the East, more and more capital will favor this side of the East. Therefore, the pressure on the US dollar index is actually increasing, and it will be very difficult for it to rise.
Regarding the trend of the US dollar index today, although the current situation exerts great pressure, the actions to support the market of the US dollar index still take effect from time to time. So the price will not keep falling, and there will still be some oscillatory patterns. However, even if it moves in an oscillatory pattern, the upward pressure on the US dollar index will be significant. Therefore, when the price reaches the effective resistance level, it will be an excellent opportunity to short the US dollar index.
DXY Trading Strategy:
buy@104.500
TP:103.500
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My idea for the DXY OANDA:EURUSD OANDA:GBPUSD
Looking at the chart we're seeing buyers exhausting their strength to push price higher, seeing sellers stepping in to take control of the market, if we get a break of the previous low then we'll be expecting price to ride us down to the next demand for possible buy opportunity.
And this move we be good for EU and GU respectively, however I welcome thoughts on this as believe a pipful week is possible. Shalom.
DXY March 30 Weekly AnalysisDXY March 30 Weekly Analysis
*My parent bias is still bear coming into this week.
*No news Monday
*Previous session price is in a discount and in a consolidation cycle.
*Note that price is weaving in between 2 HFT inefficiencies.
*Study Sundays delivery
Since March 18 Price has had a run on buy stops. Price pivoted on Wednesday at the 50 level of the range its trading in.
I like how Price came up to the 50 level of the range its trading in and didn't spend much time there before breaking down. Avoiding the market on high resistance days like Thursday is getting easier to identify. When price is high resistance it is tipping its hand to a larger move coming so be patience and wait for price to come to my levels.
NFC is this week. Will complete my weekly idea once Sundays delivers. My bias is lower prices and suspect it could be a violative week of Price delivery.
Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
DXY Mar. 28All currencies appearing in this post are fictitious. Any resemblance to real currencies, existing or dead, is purely coincidental.
DXY Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for DXY.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.402.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.208 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders
We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00.
Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
Dollar near term strenght coming, Weekly demand holdingThe DOllar has been in a decline over the last couple of months, We can see from tracking how the COT INDEX
COT Index in Forex for 6 months and 36 months
The 6-month and 36-month time frames typically refer to the historical analysis of COT data for specific currency pairs, providing insights into:
6-month COT Index:
This reflects the trading positions over the past 6 months.
It shows the trends in how market participants (e.g., hedge funds or commercial traders) have been positioned recently.
Traders typically use this shorter time frame to gauge recent trends and near-term sentiment.
A higher COT Index value indicates that speculators have a larger net long position, suggesting potential bullish sentiment, and vice versa for a lower COT Index.
36-month COT Index:
This reflects the trading positions over the past 3 years.
It provides a longer-term view of trader positioning, helping to identify historical trends and market cycles.
A higher 36-month COT Index suggests persistent bullish positioning over the longer term,
we can see the Dollar has been bought up at WEEKLY Demand, we will start looking for a shift to buy the Dollar on a daily chart.
DXY has broken the bearish structure on D1DXY has broken the bearish structure on D1.
Signaling a corrective uptrend.
Wait to buy at 103.65
Stoploss at: 103.1
TP at: 107.19
US Dollar's Worst Month Since 2023: DXY Faces Make-or-Break The greenback ends Q1 under pressure as soft inflation data, central bank divergence, and rising risk appetite weigh on the long-term outlook.
📉 A Fragile Finish to Q1 for the Dollar
As we close out March and head into Q2, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2023, erasing nearly half of its four-month rally. From a high of 110.00 in January 2025, the index has dropped to a recent low of 102.84, highlighting growing fragility in the dollar's long-term structure.
The 7.2% slide since the start of the year reflects shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, global interest rate convergence, and an increase in risk-on sentiment. With the DXY trading around 103.80 at the time of writing, bulls are struggling to reclaim momentum above the critical 104.00 barrier—a zone that has served as both support and resistance over the last eight months.
🔍 What's Driving the Weakness?
Several fundamental forces have contributed to the dollar's Q1 decline:
📉 1. Cooling Inflation and Dovish Fed Signals
February and March inflation prints came in softer than expected, leading markets to price in rate cuts sooner than the Fed's official guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, but recent FOMC minutes and commentary from regional presidents suggest that a mid-year rate cut is increasingly likely—a development that undermines the dollar's yield advantage.
🌍 2. Global Central Bank Catch-Up
The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have recently resisted premature rate cut expectations, with hawkish commentary supporting their respective currencies. Meanwhile, Japan's move away from the ultra-loose monetary policy has lifted the yen, reducing the dollar's appeal as a carry-trade favourite.
💹 3. Equities, Risk-On Sentiment, and Gold Strength
The S&P 500's record highs, strong demand for emerging markets, and gold's breakout to new all-time highs are clear indicators of a market rotating into risk assets and inflation hedges—further weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar.
📊 Technical Analysis: 104.00 Is the Line in the Sand
The DXY's decline from 110.00 has retraced 50% of the four-month rally, with a firm low found at 102.84 earlier this month. While that level has provided near-term support, upside momentum remains capped below 104.00, a multi-month resistance level that must be reclaimed to reestablish bullish control.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels:
104.00 – Multi-month pivot zone, critical for trend shift
104.46 – Minor breakout level; confirmation of bullish continuation
105.96 – Short-term upside target if 104.46 is cleared
🔻 Key Support Zones:
103.58–103.25 – Minor support zone just below current levels
102.84 – March low; major near-term support
102.39–102.00 – Final downside target if 102.84 fails
A break below 102.84 could accelerate bearish momentum into the 102.00 psychological level, especially if April's macro data confirms a slowing US economy or rising expectations for rate cuts.
🧭 April's Outlook: All Eyes on 104.00
The month of April will be pivotal in shaping the medium- to long-term outlook for the dollar. Key catalysts to watch include:
March jobs report (NFP) – Signs of labour market cooling will intensify rate cut bets.
Core PCE inflation – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could confirm the disinflation trend.
Geopolitical developments – Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine could spark temporary safe-haven flows, but may not be enough to reverse the downtrend.
Unless the DXY can close April above 104.46, it risks confirming a longer-term bearish reversal, which could open the door to sub-100 scenarios later in the year—especially if US macro data continues to soften and global rate differentials tighten further.
🔄 Scenarios to Watch: Bulls Need a Breakout
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Price holds above 103.25, reclaims 104.00, and breaks 104.46
Momentum builds toward 105.96
April data surprises to the upside, delaying Fed cuts
📉 Bearish Scenario:
Rejection at 104.00, breakdown below 102.84
Push into 102.00 support zone or lower
April macro data reinforces dovish narrative, equity strength continues
⚠️ Final Thoughts: Cautious Tone, Technical Pressure
The US dollar is ending Q1 under clear technical and fundamental pressure, with the DXY sitting at a critical inflection point. While the March low at 102.84 may hold in the short term, failure to break above 104.00–104.46 will leave the index vulnerable to further downside.
With central bank divergence fading and risk appetite on the rise, the greenback's role as a defensive play is weakening. Unless April delivers a surprise upside catalyst, the path of least resistance appears to remain lower.
Dxy*Possible Projection:*
*Bullish Scenario:* If the DXY breaks above the minor resistance near 104.5, it could test 107.939 and possibly move toward 110.148 in a recovery.
US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations.
Factors Driving the Bearish Turn:
• Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations:
o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal.
• Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies:
o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers.
o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty.
• Data from the CFTC:
o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment.
• Global Economic Factors:
o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar.
Implications of a Weaker Dollar:
• Impact on Global Trade:
o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports.
• Inflationary Pressures:
o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise.
• Investment Flows:
o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations.
Market Analysis:
• Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook.
• It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly.
• The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar.
In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
DXY March 23 Analysis and 24 IdeaDXY
March 24
Price parent bias is bear
Price is Discount M/W/D
Previous session Premium and discount on the daily range
No News
March 23 Analysis
I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI is search of higher prices at the beginning of the week, and celebrate Price did. Wicking to the March 6 buy stop. On the daily range Price is coming up to the 50 level.
Price in a Premium took session buy stops, lowered to equal sell stops in a discount in London, then rallied to March 6 buy stops and up into the Daily BISI. Great delivery.
Premium to discount to Premium. Expanded higher creating equal highs in Asia, to retrace, consolidate in London, to reverse in NY and close consolidating in a premium.
*Note the event horizon is to the sell side
March 24 Idea
I would like to see Price come down in Asia and London to the 50 maybe take the equal sell stops at the .618 and could rally for higher prices in NY.
I consider that until Asia delivers all above could change. I also consider that no news today or tomorrow could create high resistance days, stay sharp.
24 March 2025I love speaking my mind and dropping trading knowledge, please listen and go and backtest.
