USXUSD trade ideas
DXY Squeeze Incoming? Watch 99.00 ReactionFundamental Analysis:
The TVC:DXY has weakened as recent data shows GDP growth slowing to 2.4%, inflation cooling to 2.4%, and unemployment rising to 4.2%, increasing expectations of potential Fed rate cuts despite rates holding at 4.5%. Investor confidence has also dropped, with consumer sentiment at 50.8, and the trade deficit still wide at $123B, signaling softer economic momentum.
📉 Projection: Continued soft data could keep the dollar under pressure unless the Fed reinforces a hawkish stance.
⚠️ Risk Level: A strong upside surprise in inflation or employment data could reverse sentiment and push DXY higher abruptly.
Technical Analysis:
DXY is currently hovering around 99.65, just above a key support zone near 99.00 (PWL), where a potential liquidity grab may occur. The RSI is near 30, signaling oversold conditions, which often precede a short-term bounce.
📈 Projection: If price holds above 99.00, a rebound toward the 100.91 gap and possibly 103.19 (PWH) is likely.
⚠️ Risk Level: A clean break below 99.00 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the way to 97.50–98.00.
How far could the USD fall?.. WATCH THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar is declining as US uncertainty continues and cash moves out of the US. I personally think the dollar will bounce, but how far could it fall in the meantime...
Price is testing the previous monthly horizontal resistance as support and the monthly 100 SMA. The dollar may find a bottom here. From 98 to 100 on TVC:DXY
Price may reach the monthly bullish channel support. There will likely be technical buyers in this area. From 95 to 96 on TICKMILL:DXY
Good luck!
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – Key Resistance & Bearish Target Analys📊 Key Observations:
🔵 Resistance Zone (📍~103.5 Level)
A strong resistance area (🔵 blue box) is marked, indicating potential selling pressure if the price reaches this level.
The price is moving upwards (📈) towards this resistance, so watch for rejection or breakout.
🔵 Support/Target Zone (📍~101.5 Level)
A lower support zone (🔵 blue box) is marked as the bearish target 🎯.
If the price fails at resistance, it may head downwards (📉) to this level.
📉 Recent Price Action:
🚀 Sharp drop followed by a rebound (📈).
The price is currently moving back up (🔼), possibly forming a lower high before another drop.
📌 Exponential Moving Average (DEMA 9 - 102.488)
The price is hovering above the 9-period DEMA (📏), showing short-term bullish momentum.
If the price rejects resistance and falls below the DEMA, a bearish continuation (📉) is likely.
🚀 Potential Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout: If price breaks above 🔵 resistance, it may continue rising (📈) to higher levels.
❌ Bearish Rejection: If price fails at resistance, expect a drop (📉) towards 101.5 🎯.
$DXY broke structure to the downside.Now waiting for price to retrace into the lower cause/effect zone—ideally the origin of the last impulsive move down.
If that fails, I’ll be watching for a deeper retracement into the discounted schematic, where higher timeframe liquidity sits.
Not chasing—waiting for price to come to me.
DeGRAM | DXY has broken the downward structureThe DXY is under a descending channel above the trend lines.
The price has broken the upper trend line.
The chart maintains a harmonic pattern and has already broken the descending structure.
We expect a rise after consolidation above the resistance level.
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DXY Current Outlook 4hr , Daily and weekly analysisAt its current level, the DXY (US Dollar Index) is at a critical zone where a potential bullish reversal could occur. It is plausible that the index could reverse somewhere between the 99.50 – 98.00 range. However, there is also a possibility that this zone could break, leading to further downside continuation, potentially targeting the 96.23 – 93.95 levels.
It’s important to always watch for potential reversal signs at key levels. The reversal, if it happens, will likely be confirmed by certain indicators or patterns—like reversal candlestick formations—that we’ve mentioned before. Once price reaches those zones, look out for any of those confirmation signals, and use your own trading experience to validate them.
That being said, it’s also realistic to consider that the current zone (between 99.00 – 98.00) might already be the point where the dollar begins a strong recovery.
Note: All scenarios are valid, and key levels should be monitored closely for signs of a shift in momentum TVC:DXY
Dollar Index Monthly Review: Key Support Levels with the help ofIn the first Fibonacci setup, we observe a retracement of the index to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, after which a trendline could be drawn. Applying a second Fibonacci retracement on the chart reveals that the Dollar Index once again found support within the 50.0%-61.8% zone.
In January of this year, the dollar attempted to break above the 110.00 level but encountered resistance at the 61.8% bullish retracement level. This led to another pullback, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward the trendline in the 98.50-99.00 zone. The 100.00 level is expected to act as support, though a temporary dip below this level within a consolidation phase is possible before another solid support is established.
Once a new support base is confirmed, the Dollar Index could initiate the next bullish rally, potentially forming a new high above the 116.00 level.
USD Is Bullish Short Term. Short The Majors! This is the FOREX outlook for the week of April 28 - May 2nd.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is heading up towards a bearish FVG. The EURUSD, GBPUSD, and the other Major pairs will be pulled down by this price action .... until the USD hits it's POI. Then things will get interesting!
Take advantage of the USD push higher!
Remember, NFP is Friday! Be careful of wonky price action on Thursday and Friday.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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DXY Next - Week Trend Analysis & StrategiesThe DXY is currently at a crucial technical juncture. From the daily chart, the DXY has recently trended down clearly, breaking below the lower band of the descending channel. After hitting a low of 97.92, it rebounded. Notably, it's now testing the key psychological level of 100.00, which was a former support turned resistance.
The MACD shows a DIFF value of -1.3286 and a DEA value of -1.3240. The MACD bars stay below the zero line, indicating bearish dominance. Yet, the convergence of the MACD histogram implies weakening downward momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI reading of 37.6856 is on the edge of the oversold zone, hinting at a possible short-term technical rebound.
The ATR value of 1.0629 suggests relatively stable but higher-than-before market volatility, foreshadowing potential significant changes. The DXY is below major moving averages (MA55, MA14, MA200), confirming the current downtrend. Especially, the 200-day MA at 104.5507 is a key resistance for a medium-term rebound.
The DXY may continue to consolidate below the 99.85 resistance. Short-term support is at 97.92; if breached, it may fall to 97.00. The resistances above are the 100.00 psychological level first, followed by the 100.85 technical resistance.
DXY
sell@99.600-99.800
tp:99.300-99.000
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can DXY change its trend after marking 3rd HLCurrently, the price is a bit away from touching the lower trendline, which is acting as a support level as it will be its latest HL. After that, it would be interesting to know how the dollar moves because, as technical analysis on the chart suggests, DXY should move upwards to maintain that parallel channel. Tariff event, war situation and couple of other major events will also play significant role in determining the next possible movement of dollar
DXY:It will still be under pressure.Daily trading strategy.This week's signals have an accuracy rate of 99%, ensuring sustained profitability.signals 👉
Last Friday, the DXY fluctuated within the range of 99.00 - 99.50. In the short term, the US Dollar remains under pressure. If the US Dollar Index rebounds to around 99.50, one may attempt to take a short position with a light position size.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@99.8-99.5
TP:99-98
The signals last week resulted in continuous profits, and accurate signals were shared daily.
👇 signals👇
Is this the start of a massive dollar rally? Learn how .Price action (falling wedge breakout)
Institutional concept (BOS – Break of Structure, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement entry zone)
Liquidity zones (4H LQ and key levels marked in green)
Higher targets (institutional supply zones highlighted in cream boxes around 104-107)
DXY April 27 Week AnalysisDXY
April 27 Week Analysis
I suspected for Price to seek higher prices early in the week, not reflecting how much a magnet those key lows could be for Sundays delivery. Let that be lesson on the greed of manipulation of Prices piercing short that took place. WOW.
Notice how Price did seek inefficiencies from April 2022 to rebalance and how the bodies of the candles came right to my suspected key equal lows. WOW.
Notice how the wicks did the damage and the bodies stoped right on the FVG respecting the top side with its delivery.
Tuesdays range and energetic force to rally away from the .618 level and rebalance the NWOG.
After taking the key sell side not surprise Price took buy side on Wednesdays delivery and Prices wick came to CE of Tuesdays candle.
Thursday internal range taking minor sell side and rebalanced inefficiencies. Price creates equal lows.
April 25 Delivery
Price took buy side in Asia, expanded lower to create intermediate equal lows in London. In NY Price took those equal lows and closed in consolidation creating equal lows in a discount on previous range.
Note that Price closed above Thursday’s opening gap.
Note Price current range is delivering to a premium and Fridays closed in a discount previous range.
Note Price created a lower low on Monday.
Previously Sunday's deliveries have been met with manipulated volatility. I wait for Sundays delivery to occur and read what the chart gives me.
Logic says that Price just took minor buy side tapped the .618 and it might seek those clean equal lows. And as I already stated until Sunday delivers I wont speculate until after that. I do like the equal highs for Asia and London though.
Buckle up big week. Stay calm. Trade what the chart prints. Stick to your model.
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) | MACRO OUTLOOKWe’re currently trading at $99.58 — down 8.2% from the recent high around $114.77. Looking at this 12M chart, we see DXY failing to hold its breakout above the previous cycle highs.
🟣 Key Historical Levels:
Last major high: 1985 peak
Previous structure high: $121.18
Long-term support zones: $88.25, $75, and $72.81
🔻 Macro view suggests we could be entering another multi-year corrective phase if momentum doesn’t reclaim previous highs.
What’s next? Will the dollar revisit deeper support — or surprise us with a reclaim and breakout?
👁 Stay alert. This chart isn’t just about the USD — it impacts commodities, equities, emerging markets, and crypto.
#DXY #USDollar #MacroTrading #LongTermOutlook #DollarIndex #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoneyMoves #RecessionWatch
DXY 4H TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS Okay, here's a description of the image:
The image shows a 4-hour price chart for the DXY (US Dollar Index).
Key points:
Downtrend: The index is generally in a downtrend.
Support and Resistance: A resistance zone is visible around 110.175, and a support level is around 97.921. Another resistance level is near 102.925.
Recent Price Action: The price has recently broken below the 102.925 level and is currently fluctuating around 99.581.
Dollar False-break or break down????
1. **Entry:**
- Wait for confirmed false break below weekly deviation channel ( Short)
- Enter long after price reclaims support and shows bullish reversal (long)
- Alternative: Short on confirmed breakdown below channel with follow-through
2. **Stop Loss:**
- False break long: Below recent swing low
- Confirmed breakdown short: Above broken support level
3. **Take Profit:**
- False break long: Previous resistance or mean deviation line
- Breakdown short: Next major support level or extension of channel height
4. **Key Confirmations:**
- Candle patterns daily and weekly
- Weekly close position relative to deviation channel
- Follow-through in subsequent weekly candle
- Correlation check with major pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD)
5. **Management:**
- Give trade room to develop (weekly timeframe requires patience)
- Scale in to reduce risk
- Scale out at significant levels
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) AnalysisDXY, or the U.S. Dollar Index, is an index that measures the value of the American dollar against major currencies such as the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Swiss Franc (CHF). An increase in the DXY indicates that the dollar has strengthened against these currencies; a decrease signifies that it has weakened. This index is susceptible to global economic outlook, interest rates, and geopolitical developments.
In the past, with Donald Trump's rise to the presidency, expectations of rising inflation in the markets had strengthened. This had caused the DXY to rise from the 100 level to 109. However, the tariffs implemented by Trump and the trade wars he initiated weakened the dollar in the long run, leading to a downward trend in the DXY.
As of today, the DXY has technically reached an important support level. At the same time, major currencies forming the index, such as GBP, EUR, and JPY, are trading at resistance points. This situation increases the likelihood of the dollar reacting from this level. If the support level is maintained, we may see an upward movement in the DXY. Conversely, if the support is broken, a deeper downward movement in the dollar index may begin.
DXYThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a downward trend as institutional investors continue to prioritize selling over buying. This sentiment is reflected in the increasing number of sell orders compared to buy orders.
Key Observations:
- DXY price action indicates a bearish trend.
- Institutional investors are adding more sells than buys, contributing to the downward pressure.
Trading Implications:
- Short positions may be favored given the prevailing bearish sentiment.
- Traders should monitor key support levels for potential breakouts or reversals.