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$EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025)ECONOMICS:EUINTR - ECB Lowers Interest Rates by 25bps (April/2025) ECONOMICS:EUINTR April/2025 source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. Policymakers noted that the disinflation process is progressing well and dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance, while cautioning that the growth outlook has worsened amid escalating trade tensions.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest RatesECONOMICS:EUINTR (March/2025) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%. This decision reflects an updated assessment of the inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission. *The ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households. Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with core inflation also nearing the 2% target. Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating. Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment. *The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$EUNITR - Europe Interest Rates $EUNITR (January/2025) source: European Central Bank - The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rates by 25 bps in January 2025, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.75%, the main refinancing rate to 2.90%, and the marginal lending rate to 3.15%. This move reflects the ECB’s updated inflation outlook, with price pressures easing in line with projections. While domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating, and corporate profits are absorbing some inflationary effects. Despite persistent tight financing conditions, the rate cut is expected to gradually ease borrowing costs for firms and households. The ECB remains data-driven and has not committed to a predetermined rate path, emphasizing a cautious approach to ensuring inflation stabilizes at its 2% target.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest Rates (December/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR (December/2024) source: European Central Bank The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to cut its key interest rates for the fourth time this year by 25 bps in December 2024, as expected. This move reflects a more favorable inflation outlook and improvements in monetary policy transmission. Inflation is expected to gradually decrease, with forecasts of 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, is also expected to fall, with a target of 2% in the medium term. Despite easing financing conditions due to the rate cuts, borrowing costs remain tight due to previous hikes still affecting existing loans. Economic recovery is projected to be slower than before, with growth expected at 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, and 1.4% in 2026. The ECB remains focused on ensuring inflation returns to its 2% target and will adjust its policies based on incoming data, without committing to a fixed rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June. The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively. This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well. In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years. While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025. Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing. The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Euro Area Interest Rate Reduction a signal? Euro Area Interest Rate ◻️Reduced from 4.5% to 4.25% as expected ◻️We can acknowledge the pattern & recognize its significance without jumping to any immediate conclusions ◻️Chart will need to be combined with others to make assertions, such as the 10Y/2Y Yield Spread U.S. 10Y/2Y Yield Spread with U.S. Unemployment rate The amount of months that have passed prior to recession initiation after the yield curve makes its first turn back up towards 0% level ◻️ Historical Average timeframe is April 2024 ◻️ Historical Maximum timeframe would be Jan 2025 No guarantee that history will repeat. Again, just a chart and some data that is worth keeping an eye on. Some people state the bond market is now broken and manipulated, we should know within 12 - 18 months, or sooner. PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by PukaCharts
ECB maintains interest rate at 4.50% but for how long? History of prior EU Rate pauses: 4 months | Oct 00 - Apr 01 12 months | Jun 07 - Jun 08 3 months | Jul - Oct 2011 4 months | Sept 2023 - Present ⏳SO FAR⏳ At least they could say that this is not the shortest one ever now that we are into month 4. Historical Average: 6 months (March 2024) Interestingly this is when the Bank Term Funding Program in the US is ending which was providing liquidity to the banks. It might be a case of one foset gets turned off and another gets turned on. PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by PukaCharts