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UK inflation rate YoY

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$GBIRYY - U.K CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.6% March/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK slowed to 2.6% in March 2025 from 2.8% in February and below market and the BoE's forecasts of 2.7%. The largest downward contributions came from recreation and culture (2.4% vs 3.4%), mainly games, toys and hobbies (-4.2%) and data processing equipment (-5.1%). Transport also contributed to the slowdown (1.2% vs 1.8%), largely due to a 5.3% fall in motor fuel prices. In addition, prices rose less for restaurants and hotels (3%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 3.4%), mostly accommodation services (-0.6%); housing and utilities (1.8% vs 1.9%); and food and non-alcoholic beverages (3% vs 3.3%). In contrast, the most significant upward contribution came from clothing and footwear (1.1% vs -0.6%), with prices usually rising in March as spring fashions continue to enter the shops. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.3%, slightly below both the previous month’s increase and expectations of 0.4%. Annual core inflation slowed to 3.4% from 3.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (February/2025)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY February/2025 source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 2.8% in February 2025 from 3% in January, below market expectations of 2.9%, though in line with the Bank of England's forecast. The largest downward contribution came from prices of clothing which declined for the first time since October 2021 (-0.6% vs 1.8%), led by garments for women and children's clothing. Inflation also eased in recreation and culture (3.4% vs. 3.8%), particularly in live music admission and recording media, as well as in housing and utilities (1.9% vs. 2.1%), including actual rents for housing (7.4% vs. 7.8%). In contrast, food inflation was unchanged at 3.3% and prices rose faster for transport (1.8% vs 1.7%) and restaurants and hotels (3.4% vs 3.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation held steady at 5%. The annual core inflation rate declined to 3.5% from 3.7%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.1% decline but falling short of the expected 0.5% increase.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate Above Forecasts (October/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% October/2024 source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate in the UK went up to 2.3% in October 2024, the highest in six months, compared to 1.7% in September. This exceeded both the Bank of England's target and market expectations of 2.2%. The largest upward contribution came from housing and household services (5.5% vs 3.8% in September), mainly electricity (-6.3% vs -19.5%) and gas (-7.3% vs -22.8%), reflecting the rise of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in October 2024. Also, prices rose faster for restaurants and hotels (4.3% vs 4.1%) and rebounded for housing and utilities (2.9% vs -1.7%). Prices of services increased slightly more (5% vs 4.9%), matching estimates form the central bank. On the other hand, food inflation was steady at 1.9% and the largest offsetting downward contribution came from recreation and culture (3% vs 3.8%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.6%. Finally, annual core inflation edged up to 3.3% from 3.2%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7% source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%. The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels. Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001. Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023. In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY CPI (August/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY CPI Data (August/2024) 'UK Inflation Rate Steady at 2.2%' source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate ( ECONOMICS:GBIRYY ) in the UK steadied at 2.2% in August 2024, the same as in July, and in line with expectations. The largest upward contribution came from air fares while the biggest downward contributions came from prices for motor fuels, and restaurants and hotels. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in July and also matching expectations.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY - CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% (April/2024) source: Office for National Statistics The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 2.3% in April 2024, the lowest since July 2021, compared to 3.2% in March and market forecasts of 2.1%. The largest downward pressure came from falling gas (-37.5% vs -26.5% in March) and electricity (-21% vs -13%) cost, due to the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in April. At the same time, prices slowed for food (2.9%, the lowest since November 2021 vs 4%) and recreation and culture (4.4% vs 5.3%). On the other hand, the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from cost of motor fuels. The average price of petrol rose by 3.3 pence per litre between March and April 2024 to stand at 148.1 pence per litre, up from 145.8 pence per litre in April 2023. Prices also rose faster for restaurants and hotels (6% vs 5.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 3.4%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -CPI (YoY)The inflation rate in the United Kingdom remained stable at 6.7% in September 2023, holding at August's 18-month low and defying market expectations of a slight decrease to 6.6%. Softer price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.1% vs 13.6% in August) and furniture and household goods (3.7% vs 5.1%) were offset by a smaller decline in energy costs (-0.2% vs -3.2%) on the back of a monthly rise in motor fuel costs. Moreover, the core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, dropped to 6.1%, reaching its lowest point since January but slightly exceeding forecasts of 6%. Both of these figures have remained significantly above the Bank of England's 2% target, further emphasizing the mounting inflationary pressures in the country and complicating further the task for policymakers who are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.5% in September, the most substantial increase since May. source: Office for National Statistics
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Market Insight: Week Ending 21 JulyIn the US: It was quite a week for the US. According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday, consumer price inflation slowed to its lowest level since March 2021 at 3.0% in the twelve months to June (vs expected 3.1% ). Core inflation—excludes energy and food—also cooled to 4.8% (vs expected 5.0% ). Additionally, Thursday revealed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) printed a smaller-than-expected increase. This indicator measures inflationary pressures on the wholesale side: before it reaches the consumer. US wholesale prices rose less than anticipated in the twelve months to June, gaining 0.1% (vs expected 0.4% ), with core wholesale prices—less foods, energy, and trade services—slowing to 2.6% (vs expected 2.6% ). This, as well as softer jobs growth (the US economy added 209,000 jobs in June ), is unlikely to derail the Fed from raising the Fed Funds target rate on 26 July, but casts doubt on the Fed hiking beyond this month’s meeting, despite Fed officials’ forecasts. In the US this week, industrial production is expected to remain suppressed, with US retail sales and housing data also on the radar. While retail sales data are expected to increase from May to June by 0.5%, the YoY measure is anticipated to slow to 1.1% in June, down from 1.6% in May. Regarding housing data, economists are forecasting a correction, with housing starts, building permits and existing home sales projected to come in lower. Overall, though, these releases are unlikely to alter the Fed’s decision to push rates higher by 25bps later this month. Also notable this week, Fed speak will be on pause as Fed officials enter their blackout period (15-27 July) ahead of the Fed rate decision. The US Dollar Index is testing long-term support at 99.67, following a one-sided tumble last week. This could prompt profit-taking this week and see a minor recovery unfold. In the UK: Inflation data is back in the spotlight this week; only this time, it’s June’s inflation numbers from the UK. It is certainly an economic event worth pencilling in the diary this Wednesday at 7:00 am GMT+1. You will recall that UK wages were 7.3% higher (vs 7.1% expected ) in the three months to May, compared to a year prior, and, including bonuses, wages were 6.9% higher (vs 6.8% expected ) for the same period. Although the unemployment rate climbed to 4.0% in May, up from 3.8% in April (median consensus: 3.8%), the latest UK pay data will concern the Bank of England (BoE), which next meet on 3 August. Wednesday’s consumer price inflation data for June, as aired above, will be a key watch this week, with both headline and core measures poised to slow. Headline YoY inflation is expected to cool to 8.3% (median forecast), down from 8.7% in May. YoY core annual inflation is also expected to slow to 7.0% for the same period, down from 7.1%. A marked deviation to the upside in inflation this week would likely seal the deal for a 50bp rate increase. As of writing, short-term interest rate markets are pricing in a 60% probability that the BoE will hike by another 50bps, bringing the Bank Rate to 5.5%. Interestingly, the terminal rate has nudged lower, currently forecasted to reach around 6.18% in early 2024 and remain at this level for most of the year. The GBP/USD surged north last week, adding 2.0%. Key technical indicators suggest the currency pair is overbought (overvalued), with price action also nearing long-term resistance at $1.32.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Aaron-Hill
UK Inflation drop to 5 month low at 10.10% - Still crazy high!The UK inflation rate has dropped to a 5-month low of 10.1%. This tells us that the peak inflation may be behind us. The decrease in transport costs, as well as restaurants and hotels, were the main drivers of the lower inflation rate. However, if we compare it to other developed nations like the US, France, and Germany - the UK's inflation rate is still quite a bit higher. Now we need to see the Bank of England (BoE) to keep taking action to drop the inflation and interest rates. I mean an inflation rate of 10% or higher is still crazy!
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by Timonrosso