A Bearish Call On Financial Markets and The Global Economy China/Europe/EM: The UK and the entirety of Europe are in trouble. The UK now experiencing double-digit inflation and to make matters worse they are facing extreme weather and an energy shortage going into the winter. All the while Putin's war is complicating European energy supply and political ties even further. China is experiencing civil unrest, mostly thanks to an ugly property crisis. China also is experiencing lower-than-expected GDP growth. China's economy slowing has large implications given its massive presence in global trade. Emerging markets are struggling partly due to an incredibly strong dollar as well as a tight global food/energy supply.
US: The US housing market is in a recession with 6 straight months of declining sales and more importantly a monthly decrease in median home prices for the first time in years (the housing market gets hit first by rising rates… remember 08?). US consumer credit I.e., debt levels, are through the roof. Signaling that the consumer might not be as strong as market commentators are saying. Layoffs are increasing steadily, while inflation is staying high. I am bothered to see the number of peak inflation calls after just ONE MONTH of zero gains in headline inflation. The FED is now in a lose-lose scenario where they can continue to aggressively tighten and bring down this wildly levered up global economy or back out and try to save the issue for a later date. The latter would cause additions to the size of their already immense balance sheet and create an ultra-severe recession later down the line. Either way, the recent rate hikes have not at all been fully felt by markets, and add on the possibility that the FED truly commits to QT, then a few quarters down the line we will start to see a serious weakening of market conditions across the board (equities, bonds, real estate, you name it).
Forecast: Risk assets globally are going to get decimated during the next several months of trading, especially low-quality speculative names. Crypto investors should prepare to see some nasty losses, BTC to 9800, and ETH to 575 seem attainable in the medium-term. S&P 500 will NOT make any substantial or sustainable gains over the 4300 mark, 3500 is my next low target. Nasdaq 100, like crypto, is in for a large selloff, next target: 10,200. VIX will rise substantially, and could easily double from current levels. The dollar will stay higher as US rates rally upward, likely well higher than markets currently have priced in. Some commodities will make new highs- nat gas- while others like oil are poised to depreciate modestly but remain historically high. Low/non-profitable, high debt companies- Wingstop and its zombie cohorts - are at high risk of bankruptcy in the coming quarters. Widespread bankruptcies are on the horizon. Things look a little too good to be true right now in financial markets… well that's because they are. On the bright side, this bear market bounce of the past 60ish days has provided a good opportunity to exit risk assets, load up on cash and begin to add on to short positions.
As always this is not financial advice. Good luck!
