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US CPI inflation is the fundamental highlight of the weekIntroduction: The US Federal Reserve (FED) spoke last week, and the US federal funds rate was left unchanged at its level since last December. Unlike the European Central Bank (ECB) and other major central banks, the FED has yet to resume cutting its interest rate, despite intense verbal pressure from Donald Trump. This week (May 12), it's the CPI US inflation update that is the fundamental highlight of the week. Indeed, Jerome Powell is demanding more confirmation of disinflation to consider resuming rate cuts. 1) US inflation rate resumed its decline this spring according to the CPI and PCE inflation indices High-finance circles are astonished by the FED's slowness to match the ECB's rate cuts, when the downward trend in inflation curves has been confirmed in the US by the latest updates of the PCE (the FED's favorite inflation index) and the CPI. But it seems that Jerome Powell's FED is waiting to see the outcome of the trade diplomacy to be sure that the tariff war will not push inflation back up. The chart below shows the curves for nominal US inflation and underlying US inflation, and their update on Tuesday May 13 is the dominant fundamental factor of the week. If the fall in the inflation rate is confirmed, the likelihood of the FED cutting its interest rate in June or July will increase, and vice versa. 2) Real-time inflation indicators are optimistic There are a number of real-time inflation indicators, most of which are ahead of official inflation. This is particularly true of TRUFLATION, the real-time measure of true US inflation, which is already below the FED's 2% target, thanks in large part to the fall in oil prices and the decline in real estate inflation. 3) But fears of a rebound in inflation are strong, especially among US consumers. But we must remain cautious, as there is a risk of inflation rebounding in the coming months. This risk is present as long as the United States has not signed trade agreements with its main trading partners, notably China and the European Union. It is essential to limit tariffs as much as possible to neutralize any risk of a rebound in inflation, a real risk if US consumer inflation expectations are anything to go by. Conclusion: US CPI inflation on Tuesday 13th should therefore be kept under very close watch. Confirmation of a fall in the inflation rate would be good news for the equity market, as it would bring the next FED rate cut closer in time. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. 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ECONOMICS:USCPI
by Swissquote
Bitcoin to $1,000,000, This is It. (Breakdown Explained) Well here we are, no recession? no rate hikes? what's going on?. The currency collapse is imminent that's what is going on while majority wait for a recession. No reserve currency has ever survived going past 121% Government Debt to GDP (what about USA in ww2?, this was the start of parabolic technology growth + decrease in spending + war debt repressions (forced). Government Debt + Interest will collapse the currency faster if the FED raises interest rates so this is not a possible outcome unless you want to roll the dice. CPI + Inflation has barely been tamed, FED balance sheet failed to reduce + BTFP. SPY (priced in USM2) has started a new bubble breakout (yes meaning it has just started). Japan raising interest rates means the carry trade is closing (people sell the US Bonds they bought with cheap JPY) adding artificial pressure on the US10Y market. FED raising rates at 121% Government Debt to GDP will send it to 200% faster than you can imagine, a recession? forget it can't be allowed to happen. Theory breakdown what happens next? FED unable to raise rates will start to introduce confidence lost in the dollar that will trigger loss in confidence in US bonds that will require YCC like WW2. When the USA has done this before it equated to the FED needing to get rates back to zero. The FED has an objective to save the US dollar above all means necessary, raising rates in a situation like this on paper makes sense but leads to to a accelerated debt cycle collapse. Jerome Powell's only option was to raise rates fast as possible strengthening the DXY as much as they can flowing all capital globally back into the dollar for risk management. Jerome Powell now must cut rates back to zero and initiate YCC on the US bond market, reinitiate Quantitative Easing to avoid any recession backstopping every market. Inflation must be allowed to run near 20%-100%. Large capital will see this event unfolding and run into assets like Bitcoin & Gold, we already see this and should understand why Spot ETF's and leverage ETF's were rushed to the market pre cuts. If the US bond market fails, global capitalism as we know it today fails. If my thesis was invalidated Jerome Powell would have started multiple more rate hike since I first mentioned this back in late 2023.
ECONOMICS:USCPILong
by FederalXBT
CPI & Inflation Rate USHello everyone! Let's take a look on what happened yesterday on the US financial market and understand the impact of CPI and inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation news from the United States can have a significant impact on financial markets and the value of the U.S. dollar. The CPI measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households, and inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. When the CPI and inflation numbers are higher than expected , it can indicate that the economy is growing, which can boost stock prices, lead to higher interest rates, and appreciate the dollar. This is because as the economy grows, companies will see increased demand for their products and services, which can lead to higher profits and stock prices. Higher interest rates can also attract more investors to bonds, which can lead to higher bond prices. Additionally, a strong economy can lead to increased demand for U.S. goods and services, and increased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars increases, which can lead to an increase in the value of the dollar. On the other hand, if the CPI and inflation numbers are lower than expected , it can indicate that the economy is slowing down , which can lead to lower stock prices, lower interest rates and depreciation of the dollar. This is because as the economy slows down, companies will see decreased demand for their products and services, which can lead to lower profits and stock prices. Lower interest rates can also lead to less investors in bonds, which can lead to lower bond prices. Additionally, a weak economy can lead to decreased demand for U.S. goods and services, and decreased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars decreases, which can lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar. It's important to note that the Federal Reserve uses inflation as an indicator to change the monetary policy, as they use interest rates as a tool to control inflation. Typically if inflation is too high, the Fed will increase interest rates to slow down the economy and curb inflation, and if inflation is too low, the Fed will decrease interest rates to stimulate the economy. These monetary policy decisions can also have an impact on the value of the dollar, as when the Fed raises interest rates, it can make the U.S. a more attractive place to invest, which can lead to an appreciation of the dollar. Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates, it can make the U.S. a less attractive place to invest, which can lead to a depreciation of the dollar.
ECONOMICS:USCPIEducation
by m_maia14
ASSETS /INFLATION DEFLATION JUST STARTED Since 1971 ALL ASSETS have inflated based on the start of M2 and the start of money velocity . it is just starting down housing BUBBLE is about 5 x of 2007 as is the pension system . when it is over it will be a very DARK TIME and a NEW System . FIXED money . CASH AND T BILLS ARE THE ONLY SAFE HAVEN !! I HAVE WARNED OF MAJOR CIVIL ARREST and having a good 1 yr of dry goods something to protect you and you family . and move as far away from any city or state thats BLUE
ECONOMICS:USCPIShort
by wavetimer
3
Can we expect more inflation? A look US Consumer Price Index.We are living in very uncertain times. I wanted to provide a couple of view in order to understand the current market situation better and determine a strategy going forward. So I have created a US consumer price indes YOY% chart. We have not seen such high interest rates since the 1970s when demographics created a demand shock and oil embargos and Iran crisis created a demand shock leading to high inflation. Today, respectively as a result from 2 years of Covid-19 (measures) and now a war we have seen tremendous supply shock. Now can we expect the peak of the inflation fear has passed? Will we see a slow growth and a declining inflation? Stay tuned for more charts.... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !!
ECONOMICS:USCPIShort
by CarpeMomentum