U.S. Initial Jobless Claims (Updated Chart with todays release)U.S Initial Jobless Claims
Rep: 187k ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 207k
Prev: 203k (revised up from 202k)
A positive release today with initial claims coming in much lower than expected.
Chart Trend
We are very close to taking out the lows from Oct 2022 at 180k claims on the chart. Importantly these charts do not update with revised figures and factoring in revised data the low was 167k in April 2022 (a little earlier and a little lower).
In any event these sorts of lows in Initial Claims have not been seen since May 1969.
Recession Watch
The chart below has min, avg and max levels on the bottom left to illustrate the levels we would need to hit for increased recession risk. Right now this chart has not demonstrated increased risk. We need be careful and watch for the average increase of 71k pre recession as illustrated on the chart. Lets see what next months reading informs.
Continuous Claims up Next 💪🏻