4/8/25 - one more i keep staring at. i'll keep it short!One more from me tonight, friends,
I keep staring at this chart which plots (the scatter-like print) ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and also shows the S&P adjusted by M2 (purple).
I believe one or the other is likely true.
1/ we're in the middle of a mega bull run that began in '09 and never rea
Key data points
Last release
—
Observation period
Mar 19, 2025
Next release
—
Forecast
—
Highest
20.00 % on May 8, 1981
Lowest
0.25 % on Feb 28, 2022
About US interest rate
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
$USINTR - U.S Interest Rates (March/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
March/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Fed keep the funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%,
but signaled expectations of slower economic growth and rising inflation.
The statement also noted that uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased, but officials still anticipat
2/18/25 - general mkt observationsi'd rather be sippin' pina coladas on the balcony at this stage than continue at the beach party with clear skies darkening. think i've just been there, done that enough to not want to play the last minute FAFO game as much as one can possibly avoid it.
so when i look out over the next 12 months...
$USINTR -U.S Interest Rates ECONOMICS:USINTR
(January 2025)
source: Federal Reserve
-The Fed kept the funds rate steady at the 4.25%-4.5% range as expected, pausing its rate-cutting cycle after three consecutive reductions in 2024.
The Fed showed more optimism about the labor market and noted that inflation remains somewh
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$USINTR - Fed's Third Rate Cut (December/2024)ECONOMICS:USINTR
(December/2024)
source: Federal Reserve
-The Fed announced another 25bps cut to the federal funds rate in December 2024,
marking the third consecutive reduction this year and bringing borrowing costs to the 4.25%-4.5% range, in line with expectations.
The so-called dot plot
$USINTR -Feds Cuts RatesECONOMICS:USINTR
(November/2024)
source: Federal Reserve
-The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September, in line with expectations.
Policymakers reiterated their previous message th
$USINTR -Fed Cuts Rates by 50 BPS ECONOMICS:USINTR
- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 4.75%-5% in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks.
It is the first rate cut since March 2020 after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades.
Will Feds decision
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Frequently Asked Questions
US interest rate is 4.5% at the moment.
Last month US interest rate was 4.5%, and the month before it reached 4.5%.
Interest rate is the proportion of a loan that is charged as interest to the borrower, typically an annual percentage of the loan outstanding. When it comes to the national level, interest rate is a rate at which banks borrow money from a country's central bank.
Yes, negative interest rate can be used by the government as a monetary policy tool to stimulate economy growth.
Growing or falling interest rate can influence the country's economy, stimulate it or lower the inflation level. Even people can feel the effect of interest rate's movements — for example, if interest rate increases, loans get more expensive.