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USINTR trade ideas

Interest rates and bear markets. We all know that rising interest rates mean falling stock prices. It's been repeated endlessly over the last year with people getting up in arms about the stupidity of the market to be rallying with interest rate hikes. To elaborate on this, here's the massive interest rate bubble of the 1970s. From 1975 - 1981 US interest rates would go up a whopping 500%! Here's what SPX did during those years. It doubled! It appears people forecasting a prolonged bear market due to "Higher for longer" did not do their backtesting. This has not historically created a bear market in US stocks - they went up 100% last time rates went up 500%. This is not a bull or bear analysis. I just wanted to let you know. Because the internet told me this was impossible - and clearly it's not. It's not even a good analysis point.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by holeyprofit
6
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35% There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RizeSenpai
The correlation between US Interest Rates and The US Dollar (DXYInterest rates and USD strength are positively correlated. An increase in US interest rates will typically result in a strengthening of the USD. The reason is... Foreign investors tend to flock to US assets, such as bonds and fixed bank rates for higher returns. Higher demand for US assets drives up their price, and as a result, the USD strengthens. As for the relationship between USD strength and US stock market prices, it is more complex and can have both positive and negative effects. On one hand, a strong USD can make US exports less competitive, reducing demand and potentially leading to a decrease in corporate profits. This can weigh on stock prices. On the other hand, a strong USD can attract foreign investment into US stocks, driving up demand and prices. There are other reasons for the correlation such as: Interest rate differentials When interest rates in one country are higher than in another, capital tends to flow to the country with the higher interest rates. This results in an increase in demand for the currency of the country with higher interest rates, strengthening its currency i.e US Dollar. Inflation expectations Interest rates are also closely linked to inflation expectations. When interest rates rise, it is generally expected that inflation will rise too, which makes the currency more attractive to investors. Trade flows The USD is the currency used in most international trade transactions, and as a result, changes in trade flows can have a significant impact on the value of the USD.
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ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by Timonrosso
8
230112- Relation (1) interest rate, (2) Treasury Yield, (3) oil U.S. INTEREST RATES vs TREASURY YIELD vs OIL PRICE Timeframe: 1 month. start: 1972 Blue line: interest rates (USINT) Orange area: 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (IRLTLT01USM156N) Green Line: oil (scale on the left) (A) WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ABOVE BOND YIELD, (1) it sparks a financial crisis: 1990, 2000, 2008, 2019 (2) it is followed by a spike in oil price. (3) on smaller timescale, oil price rises and falls with increases and decreases in Treasury Yields. (B) OBSERVATIONS ON INTEREST RATE: (1) Interest Rates have been falling since 1980 (2) Treasury Yields have been declining since 1980 (3) It appears, the Federal Reserves strives for a 5% interest rate. It drops interest rates FAST when the market is too hot, and builds up slowly again, attempting to meat the 5% arbitrary target. (4) As time goes on the Federal Reserve is more cautious in raising interest rates. BUT MOST RECENT RAISES IN INTEREST RATE ARE ALL BUT SLOW. s3.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by UnknownUnicorn39208297
Differences in central bank interest rates.The FED Interest rate is moving the stock market, but forex is more sensitive to the spreads. In this simple aggregated chart, indexed to 100, several spreads between countries are shown. For example, focus on the white continuous line, the US Dollar is more appetible for investor respect to Japanese Yen, because the UnitedStates has higher interest rate on its currency. While, focusing on the red continuous line, the UnitedStates have the same interest rate of Canada. This means US Dollar and Canada Dollar have the same interest by investors in terms of interest on their currency. This means USD/CAD might be less dependant now from their central bank's monetary policies
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by giancarlopagliaroli
5
Interest rate ( DOLLAR )How high will the Federal Reserve ( FED ) raise interest rates? Here you can see how far. As you can see we still have a long way to go. We are on the verge of breaking a congestion of more than 40 years. The minimum rate hike will be up to 5 points. And that is at least, because we could revisit levels not seen since the 80s. We are in serious trouble, the economy of all citizens will suffer a lot. It is time to be cautious in the markets and not to make hasty decisions, as we may still have a long way to go before we see the end.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by javieralcazarono
Interest Rates vs Everyone - How Crypto Can Bounce BackA pretty rough week for the markets - especially crypto. The recent dips are a result of mainstream money (crypto curious, but not necessarily dedicated) leaving the space as a response to inflation woes and the Federal Reserve planning to increase interest rates over 2022. The US housing markets are also set to slow down as well, possibly leading to a recession in the US markets and the global economy as a whole. What's the silver lining? Well, the last time the housing market dipped was in 2008-2012, which coincides directly when Bitcoin itself was invented by Satoshi Nakamoto. Will the same sort of sentiment emerge as a result of fiat money crashing this time around? Time will tell.
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by RyanTanaka
2