Gold vs Mining StocksThis graph shows the mispricing of gold vs mining stocks. Mining stocks show incredible upside potential with very little lowside. This is a rare opportunity.
USIRYY trade ideas
Inflation rate to look out with USOIL breaking key trendlineUSOIL may take sometime under 95 and come back down hinting towards a slow inflation or even deflation but that seems unlikely with the trend USOIL has been in currently.
⚡️ INFLATION IN THE US WILL GO TO THE SKY 🚀🚀🚀📣 Hello!
I believe that inflation in the US will not go anywhere and the 2% target that the Fed has set for itself will not be achievable anymore. Here is a 100-year triangle on the CPI chart and I believe that already in this decade, that is, until 2030, it will be broken up and the Fed will have very big problems. After the triangle breaks up, inflation will soon exceed the peak of the 80th year and soar to 18-20%, then after the correction we will see a new ATH, it will be just inevitable. We can hope, of course, that everything will be fine – no one forbids this to you or me. But we have to be ready for the worst times right now, that's my opinion.
⚠️ Please analyze the information received from me and always think first of all with your own head. I wish you good luck in making your own trading decisions and profit ✊ Bye!
CORE CPI PRINTS HOT U.S Core CPI
Rep: 3.9% 🚨HIGHER THAN EXPECTED🚨
Exp: 3.7%
Prev: 3.9%
U.S. Headline CPI
Rep: 3.1% ✅In line with Expectations✅
Exp: 3.1%
Prev: 3.4%
Breaching below 3% is proving a difficult task for Headline CPI .
In 25 years of inflation history above and headline CPI cant seem to breach down below into the moderate <3% level
Since Oct 2023 Core CPI has only declined 0.1%.
PUKA
INFLATION REBOUND ?Consumer Confidence vs INFLATION
The Red Phase was the fall of the CC which lead the Inflation data fall.
-> Of course, when consumers doesn't trust the market, spending fall.
The Yellow Phase describes the effect of the CC falling: IF FALL.
As leading indicator, the rebound of CC show the expansion which is represented by the Green Phase.
-> As we can see, as soon as CC take points, the Inflation rebound too. Not like 2008, this time, CC took 30pts.
⚠️I envisaged a continuation of the fall of the Inflation data but a big chance of rebound in the Inflation.
Moreover, the last seen consolidation of the inflation and the rebound of the CC at the pic of the Inflation is worrying.
We see Strong Economic datas even showing signs of expansion. This delay between inflation and CC has not been that big during 2008.
At the first rate cut there is a big chance of explosion of the Inflation as seen in 2006/2008 or pre-covid. ⚠️
Improved CPI, but Market Collapse – What is Happening?Just about 1.5 years ago, inflation reached the highest point in recent decades. The January inflation number for 2024 was released on February 13th. Its CPI has improved from 3.4% for December to 3.1%. However, the major US stock indices collapsed more than 1% on the same day. Why is there such nervousness surrounding improved inflation, and what are its implications?
Mirco E-minin Dow Jones Futures & Options
Outright: 1.0 index points = $0.50
Symbol code: MYM
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Exploit the inflation response?In the United State's history of inflation, we can observe a specific pattern anytime the inflation rate spikes.
First in 1935, and again in 1969. Each time this happened we saw two additional spikes each about 4.5-5 years apart.
Given the recent spike in inflation in 2022, we may again see another two additional spikes in inflation. One around 2027, and another around 2032.
Thanks to the recent spike, we were able to observe first hand how the market reacts to the policy response on inflation which is to increase rates.
Further - it is likely that when the market reacts unfavorably to the increase in rates, it will bottom out in approximately 10 months like it did in October of 2022 meaning we will be able to have an idea of when to go stop shorting and enter long positions.
TLDR: market should pump til' like 2027 all things held constant xD.
Since the fed is politicalAnd not looking to cause any pain before an election, I am standing firm with my assessment that a second wave of inflation is going to occur, due to the severely low interest rates.
Send rates to 15-20% to change my mind.
Core and Headline CPI RELEASED (Dec 2023 figures)Core and Headline CPI (Dec 2023 figures)
U.S. Headline CPI
Prev: 3.1%
Exp: 3.2%
Rep: 3.4% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED 🚨
U.S. Core CPI
Prev: 4.0%
Exp: 3.8%
Rep: 3.9% 🚨 HIGHER THAN EXPECTED - but still fell
from 4% to 3.9%✅
CORE CPI FALLS BELOW 4% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MAY 2021
We have a long way to go before we reach the Fed Target of 2%.
Additional info previously shared:
Core vs Headline (the difference)
You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line.
The Feds 2% Target
It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first.
You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
Core and Headline CPI (Release Tomorrow Thurs 11th Jan 2024)Core and Headline CPI
NEW CPI Figures released tomorrow Thursday 11th Jan 2024 @ 7:30am Central (for the December 2023 month)
U.S. Headline CPI
Prev: 3.1%
Exp: 3.2%
Rep: TBC Tomorrow
U.S. Core CPI
Prev: 4.0%
Exp: 3.8%
Rep: TBC Tomorrow
Will the US Core CPI finally fall below 4% for the first time since May 2021?
Core vs Headline (the difference)
You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI on the chart. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide the underlying inflation trend. Food and Energy is included in the Headline inflation which as you can see from the chart is much more volatile and changes direction quicker than core inflation. Its almost like an oscillator around the core inflation line.
The Feds 2% Target
It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2% on both fronts (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first.
You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
I’ll update you tomorrow with the released figures
PUKA
What if?If you see what I see I would love to hear your opinions. Leave comments please.
History always repeats itself. Next big spike in inflation coming?
Fed's Hope in 2024 - Their Projection & PlanDuring the December FOMC conference, the fed said the appropriate level for interest rate or the fed funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of 2024 from current 5.5%, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026.
Many reporters take that as Fed’s hint to cut rate in 2024, but the Fed added saying these projections are not the committee decision or plan.
So what is the difference between a projection and a plan? And how will the market performance in 2024?
Dow Jones Futures & Options
E-mini Dow Jones
Ticker: YM
1.00 index point = $5.00
Micro E-mini Dow Jones
Ticker: MYM
1.0 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Core and headline CPI - Update from 12 Dec 2023 The Core and Headline CPI Chart
This CPI chart illustrates the following:
- You can clearly see how Core CPI is less volatile than Headline CPI. Core CPI removes the volatile food and energy expenditures to provide a more general view of underlying inflation (based on a fixed basket of goods)
- It is clear that we are not at the Federal Reserves target of 2% which is also outlined on the chart (purple line). It is critical to understand that we are still not at or below the target 2% level regardless of the FOMC’s determination of a likely hold on interest rates and reductions to interest rates in 2024. Lets see can the target be met first.
- You can see that since 2002 Core CPI has fluctuated one standard deviation above and below the 2% inflation level between 1% and 3%. It is clear that we are not back into this standardised zone between 1 – 3%.
Im sharing this chart now to lock it in as it will feature in tomorrows Macro Monday
See you there
PUKA
The Great Inflation AGAIN? US Inflation Rate YoY Comparison - ECONOMICS:USIRYY
Stark similarities to the beginning of the Great Inflationary Period (GIP) which ranged from 1965 - 1982.
The GIP fractal is not a prediction, it only offers us perspective and context. As an example, US Inflation YoY could potentially bounce around between 3 - 4% for another 32 months as it did between 1975 - 1978 before making any major move. This is a scenario I had not considered, an almost 3 year sideways boring consolidation.
We will continue to track this chart to see how it compares moving forward into the future.
PUKA
US CPI UpdateUS CPI
US Headline and Core CPI for October both came in lower than expected (decrease).
US Headline CPI:
YoY – Actual 3.24% / Exp. 3.3% / Prev. 3.7% (Green on cha
rt)
US Core CPI:
YoY – Actual 4.02% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.13% (Blue on chart)
The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 1 – 3% from 2002 – 2020 below.
Nice to see the Core CPI come down, almost down, into the moderate historical averages
PUKA
US & Headline CPI - October Release/Overview US CPI
US Headline and Core CPI for October both came in lower than expected (decrease).
US Headline CPI:
YoY – Actual 3.24% / Exp. 3.3% / Prev. 3.7% (Green on chart)
US Core CPI:
YoY – Actual 4.02% / Exp. 4.2% / Prev. 4.13% (Blue on chart)
The chart below illustrates the direction of the current YoY down trend for both Headline and Core CPI however we are still not at the historical moderate levels of inflation desired. You can see these moderate levels of inflation between 1 – 3% from 2002 – 2020 below.
Nice to see the Core CPI come down, almost down, into the moderate historical averages
PUKA
World Wars & US Inflation From 1914This is the US Inflation Rate (YoY) from 1914 until 2022.
Symbol is called USIRYY and it measures the Inflation Volatility in the United States.
With the War going on in Ukraine, and Russia trying to force its way through, I took the liberty of looking into the following:
- How Global Wars Affect Inflation
- How US Inflation Reacts to External Wars
- How Wars Affect the Financial Markets
You can see the time-lines, it's all laid-out in the chart (graph).
I took all the Major World Wars and events that significantly affected, not only the US Inflation, but Inflation itself.
First of all, the US Inflation Rate (USIRYY) tells me the following:
* When the US was involved in a War, we can notice that the US Inflation spiked.
* Most of the times when US was not involved in an External War, then Inflation dropped.
That's because of War & Uncertainty Sentiment around this "terrific" word.
War does not bring anything good, in fact, in only brings bad times.
People die and global sentiment gets super-negative.
This of course, leads to... you guessed it: Market Crash.
Why? Because after or during times of War, there are Recessions and Depressions.
Supply Chains are disrupted and the Global Economy falls on its face.
What about looking at things from a Technical Analysis perspective?
* Symmetrical Triangle: and the only way is UP!
I will give you points which I believe are worth keeping in mind for the next Market Crash.
First of all, let's be logical about this.
Winter is coming and it's only gonna get worse before it gets better.
As Inflation spiked to a 40y high, the higher powers intervened, in an attempt to cool the Inflation spike off.
I'm talking here about the Federal Reserve (FED) ramping up the Interest Rates.
This is the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS).
Can you see the break-out?
They want to calm down Inflation, but they can't.
Why? Because this is no ordinary Inflationary period, it's a long-lasting thing.
One of those hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, or whatever the heck these experts call it... :)
The Volatility Index (VIX) tells me that another spike in Fear Sentiment is inevitable.
I'm in love with Elliott Wave Analysis, so I labeled this next chart.
This is the United States Consumer Confidence Index (USCCI) and it measures exactly what its name says, LOL.
When it drops, people are freaking out. When it rises, people are optimistic and the Markets are going up. Daaaa!
With all that said, what's the bottom line here?
I believe that periods of terror are gonna hit us all.
Are we having World War 3? Who the heck knows?
All I know is that there are more pieces to this puzzle:
United States 10Y Bonds (USB10YUSD) have reached the Support, and a spike bigger than the Covid Pandemic has started:
The 10Y Treasury Note Yield (TNX) have broken out of a 40y down-trend:
Isn't it ironic how it synced with the Inflation 40y high?
Damn!
Germany 40 (DAX, GER30, GRXEUR) is doomed.
Fractal sequence, Descending Channel, and a "beautiful" ABC Elliott Wave Pattern.
So, how can you prosper from all this?
Metals could be a good hedge.
Gold (XAUUSD) just broke out of an important Bearish Structure.
Maybe it will go up.
Natural Gas (NG1!) & Crude Oil (USOIL) however, are showing Bearish Reversals.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is Bearish until further notice as well.
But this may become the new currency moving forward.
In times of terror, the banking systems might need to change.
Cash and Card is so '00.
WHAT'S YOUR TAKE? WAR OR PEACE?
Leave your commend down below.
Cheers!
Richard
'Inflation is transitory' by FEDFED did that. And it was not elaborate lie. They made money on it. What is next ?
Relationship between CPI and Oil price A rise in oil prices may cause the consumer price index (CIP) and Producer Price Index (PPI) higher.
Today US CPI climbed to 3.7% from 3.2% as Oil price continues to raise high since June 2023. Rising oil prices increase the cost of transporting goods and services, as a result the inflation raises high.
WTI CRUDE 88.73
BRENT CRUDE 92.09
MURBAN CRUDE 94.38
Producer Price index (PPI)
Sep 14, 2023 (Aug) 0.4 %( expect) 0.3 %( Previous)
We can expect coming PPI to rise higher than expected (0.4%) as there is a stronger correlation between oil prices and producer prices more than the correlation between the oil price and CPI as the (PPI) measures the average selling price from domestic producers and It can be directly linked to inputs.
INFLATION BUBBLE AT CROSSROAD INFLATION VS DEFLATION Based on the last 120 year of DATA the inflation cycle had peaked . The mistake some will have that it is the beginning of ASSET DEFLATION CYCLE . SEE THE 1921 TIME TO WHICH I STATE we are in based on the 89 2010 4 and 2 year cycles and time spirals which called for a top in sp in sept and late dec 2021 which would see a major new BEAR market in all assets classes to which the panic cycle due oct 4th to th 20th focus on the 10th with targets of 3511/3490 . this is the FIRST leg of the deflationary CRASH cycle NOT the END .
US InflationUS Inflation is on a momentary decline from 10 possibly down to 1 indicated by the red horizontal line. From 1, I believe it will then look to grab liquidity at 23. No telling how long these moves will take or if this actually plays out.
$USIRYY -CPI# *M printToday is the Consumer Price Index numbers release.
Consensus sits at 8% Inflation rate, while the previous month's number was at 8.2%.
Many are forecasting for a 8.1% CPI number coming out.
Feds have been expecting to bring inflation down via their instrument of interest rates by raising them at 4%, however, thus far, no success was found there for Feds in terms of bringing down inflation, let alone their 2% inflation target that for now, seems far-fetched target.
While in this world of speculation we live in and nothing is for certain, it is best for traders to
wait over CPI's release taking the risk off and trading cautiously .
I would not suggest for any one to trade the news and it's volatility , but if you do so,
please take measures on any occurring scenarios over CPI's number release.
Very important day for everyone who is involved on Financial Markets.
Very important day for Macro-Economics Data and overall Inflation around the World.
What do you think it will happen with 2% Inflation target Feds got in place ?
TRADE SAFE
Note that this is not Financial Advice .
Please do your own research or consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activities based soly
on this idea
US inflation data is at multi year resistance..Us inflation is at multi year resistance.it shows inflation has already peaked. once it will start coming down markets will rally to the upside. Will markets makes new ath sooner or later ? Well who knows?? Ask yourself that question.
Will fed stop rising rates for now?
Very unlikely.
Will fed could consider lowering the basis points ?
Most likely.
Will fed do it in upcoming meeting (23rd sep'22) this month?
Unlikely.
