EGX30 trade ideas
Egypt Finacial Market Perspective.After the thirtieth index reached the levels of 9500 points, affected by the successive crises of the repercussions of the Corona virus and the exit of hot money after the beginning of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The Egyptian stock market was suffering from severe frustration until the signs of breakthrough appeared from the first of October and November of the year 2022.
A strong recovery phase has begun that shows in the Egyptian financial markets some stability of the international community's confidence in the Egyptian economy, the success of negotiations between those in charge of the state's monetary and financial policies with the IMF and others, and the beginning of financial flows to the Egyptian economy. This pushed the main index of the Egyptian Exchange to reach the level of 17678.453, approaching its highest level since 2018 at 18364.984.
Hence the questions began to revolve around whether it is possible to reach the 19,000 level or is it a distant dream that comes about half a decade ago. The answer lies in the fact that monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Egypt is still in place to contain the price crisis and inflation and the waves of interest rate hikes attract a large fiscal liquidity.
Even with the latest 22% certificates, banks absorbed cash amounting to 162 billion pounds in four days. However, decreasing interest certificates have emerged, which is seen as monetary tightening will calm down a bit and focus on the stability of the pound's exchange rate, which has a major role in the strong decline in inflation, as we witnessed in the second half of 2017.
Hence the dream of the stock exchange in everyone's imagination, as government offerings, stable interest rates, stable exchange rate and the reversal cycle of liquidity may reach the Egyptian stock index to above 20,000 points.
As for the technical analysis of the index - the index has strong support at two points at 15284.215, which is considered central support and above it support for Fibo 23 at 15549.447
Either targeting the 18364.984 point or the occasional movement between the levels of 17678.453 and 15427.629
A Painful Q2 for EGX?We had quite an impulsive run on EGX30 since summer 2022 with more than 105% gain however, nothing lasts forever :(
We're due for a correction!!
In the light of my elliot wave count, we should anticipate wave 4 to correct anywhere between 11 - 30%. I personally expect a 24% correction to meet the golden ratio (0.618 feb) for the retracement, with an invalidation below 12700.
Generally, wave 4 is where everyone gets frustrated and we can easily see this happening with the current overall sentiment in Egypt hitting seriously low levels while inflation skyrockets and fears of further devaluation of the EGP builds up.
This won't last long however. If my forecasts were correct, we should be over by May or June, and those who kept their patience and built positions during the correction will profit without a doubt.
Let's see where we will go :)
EGX30 | BRICS RoadMapEgypt Joins the BRICS New Development Bank
the NDB finances infrastructure and sustainable development projects in areas such as energy, transportation, water, communications, and health.
"Since 2016, the Bank has invested in multiple projects, including US$7.2 billion in India alone," RT reported, recalling that Egypt expressed an interest in becoming an NDB member in July.
"BRICS is working to develop its own financial infrastructure, including a joint payment network, with some member states having already switched to trade in local currencies in order to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and euro," it added.
Currently, Egyptian President Al Sissi is in Saudi Arabia participating in the summit of Arab countries with China, the nation with the largest economy among the BRICS.
Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait affirmed his country's enthusiasm for enhancing cooperation with international development partners, especially in light of the "unprecedented development movement" he is witnessing in Cairo.
Previously, the Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry has noted that Argentina, Algeria, Iran, Indonesia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are also interested in joining the BRICS bloc.
IS a rally has Begin?EGX30 success to breakout some Fibo retracement level in a short term correction. and breakout a downtrend at 9815.382 in the last session.
by that moves a rally with some challenges can begin: A strong resistance at 10297.455 based on a retracement and a base level. may need to get support from the 9898.130 at Fibo 0.236
on the way to 11169.66 they will be some consolidation and profit gaining can but it under a pressure to go side way for a period of time.
EGX 30wait price action at blue zone to buy
this zone is very strong due to share zone between
Two Harmonic Pattern
yellow Butterfly (weekly scale**
Green Crab ((daily scale**
((9240.122----9106.719**
with stop loss closing under 9050
in this case we will wait at last zone between ((8563.441---8346.383**
with stop loss closing under 8300
EGX30 11715 is a key point that can be a support to push up the EGX30 toward 12400, if this level breaks we can see next support level 11400 and 11120
keep watching tomorrow if level resist you can go for long
keep in mind that COMI (CIB bank) now may go down to 50 levels and this will give pressure on EGYX30