EUSTX50 trade ideas
EUSTX50, Bearish signals at resistanceEUSTX50 at resistance Area 3276.98-3326.02, potential move to the downside from this zone (1st management point 3160).
Euro 50 Long Opportunity Euro is in consolidation currently, place entry 1 - 5 ticks above high and straight to 3400, here there may be a rebound and then possibly up to 3500.
Bullish consolidationBoth the Weekly and Daily time frames show Eurostoxx50 has started its bullish consolidation.
Which direction will next leg be, we can not tell from this setup right now.
- The strategic weekly setup is bullish, with strong support zone at 3115-3156. Right now Chikou Span hit past Kumo top, which acts as resistance ahead of market. Price got a bit far away from Kijun Sen, this should also make bulls cautious here a bit. Heikin-Ashi signals momentum exhaustion.
- Below daily Kijun 3267 space would open to a deeper retracement, and market would probably test daily 100wma and weekly Tenkan at 3156. That is the value level where we should look for next buy signal.
If you think in a swing short position, do it only with small size (0,5 risk unit) and strict tight stop.
Consolidation TimeAfter a +22.6% performance since late June 2016, this index has been looking stretched and bound for a consolidation. The long and medium term pictures are still looking positive, a testimony of the general bullish configuration we are still in.
However, the short term (daily) has been consolidating form an overbought condition. Would not put new money to work here on the index. The name of the game is to protect existing European positions and be attuned to tactical opportunities brought about by upcoming earnings releases.
Watch resistance at 3350 and supports at 3200 / 3100.
EUROSTOXX 50: Ready As Well
If you watch diffrent stockmarkets you see that each of them shows a kind of consolidation pattern or ramp ready to move forward and to go higher.
If you see this trading idea and some more from tonight keep in mind that European Retail Investors are "short" for at least 75% to 80% each market.
If you add both together than the conclusion might be that this bull run isn´t over now and might continue until end of this year.
Time To Buy Europe. Now!
If you follow the trading ideas here you might see that the sentiment for Europe is changing dramaticaly, obviously.
In the following days i will up date this trading idea for the ES50 with more information about the huge amount of cash wich Investors definitely draw out of Europe from January to October 2016. The number i remember was above a record 600 B Euro until June 2016 but it will be mutch higher all over the yerar 2016 fore sure.
Expect that a part of this money will return to Europe in the following month. This will push the most Major European Stockmarkets to new record highs. If you watch the trading ideas published here in December 2016 by me you will see that the stockmarkets in Italy, France, Germany and the EuroSTOXX 50 all showing the same pattern (double bottom) and might start now a new major bull market ---> right now.
EUStoxx Roadmap Dec 2016Entering crunch time. Draghi has ECB meeting this week, so lets see. Could surprise
Is Europe-US relative value game reversing?Something has begun in last few days in Europe. Price action in Eurostoxx50 index has been really strong both outright and relative to SP500.
Stoxx50/SPX spread - weekly (left panel):
- Spread rallied quite a lot since June, crossed back above Kijun Sen. This was remarkable, as the value had been holding below Kijun Sen since July/2015! From the October top, we saw retracement slightly below Kijun Sen again.
Last week, before Italian referendum market still looked to continue bearish. But this week we have a remarkable signal! -> Price spikes back above Kijun, and Heikin-Ashi shows a clear reversal.
- Smoothed haDelta+ indicator confirms with a cross up. MACD shows a bearish failure and likely to continue up. EWO ticks higher too.
So far it is just a very early signal, but looks like the underperformance of Stoxx50 relative to SPX may come to an end as the spread could not make a lower low.
As a strategy I'd suggest buying Stoxx50 on dips vs selling SPX. You don't have to rush, probably there will be some dips before the Stoxx50 weekly chart confirms a bullish breakout.
In other words, if you don't trade the spread, but you look to buy equities, Europe can be a better opportunity, while on bearish side SPX has to be picked (if a sell signal confirms)
Stoxx50 - Weekly (right panel):
- Ichimoku is still neutral as price is located in the Kumo cloud, but watch out for forward Senkou B! The 52 weeks average has dropped to 3000, while Senkou A (average of Tenkan and Kijun) started to turn up. This makes some initial bullish bias in the thinner forward Kumo. Chikou Span is trying to cross above past candles too.
Tenkan/Kijun has been weak bullish since August, and all selling attempts were blocked by the weekly Kijun Sen.
The supports of this market are very clear now: 3000 / 2955 / 2900
- Heikin-Ashi signal is bullish, haDelta made a bullish cross above zero. EWO and MACD has initial bullish bias too. Until we get some more bullish confirmation, try to buy retracements to 3080 rather than rusing into longs here.
Not clear at all.Same indecision, with increasing volatilit (-> see ATR!)
Not trending, it is still just a choppy sideaway. Wait until clear signal comes!
Neutral ramge, mixed signalsWeekly:
- Ichimoku is abslutely neutral: Price is below Tenkan, above Kijun and shaded by a thick forward Kumo cloud. Tenkan/Kijun medium bullish. Chikou Span is at past candles.
- Wider range is 2900 - 3100, tighter range is 2930 - 3050.
- Heikin-Ashi has bearish bias, but haDelta and Oscillator are rather neutral
- EWO is neutral, MACD is neutral too.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral: both spot and forward Kumo cloud is just a flat line: equilibrium is ard 3010-20, where all flat average lines stay together
- Tightenning triangle, with support around 2930 and resistance at 3080.
- Heikin-Ashi shows bearish momentum is off for today, but it is not yet bullish, just undecisive: long wicked doji candle with haDelta and DMO turning up, but both indicators are still below their zero lines!
- EWO is slightly bearish
If you know how to trade this market, good for you. I stay flat. It is ery annoying with too much noise.
Europe's Blue-Chips Look WeakAs tweeted earlier , the Euro Stoxx 50 chart is looking very weak. While near-term technicals dip into oversold territory, the projection is for price action to head lower.
Today's session saw a close underneath the post-Brexit uptrend, and we are likely to see a move to 2,900 to 2,915 -- or the 61 percent retracement from mid-December.
The momentum of the trend via ADX-DMI is showing strength and overwhelming bearish price action. Due to the oversold technicals, with the z-score at -1.87, a relief bounce is expected. (the weekly z-score is just -.18).
However, expect Europe's to challege the 61 percent Fib. A close below this level would cause trouble, and the index could see another 50-100 point decline to challenge the larger downtrend support.
Additionally, the 20-day EMA is looking to cause a bearish crossover with the 200-day EMA.
Also, check out our excellent short call on Euro Stoxx 50 leading into the #Brexit vote !
If you want to learn more follow @Macro_View on TWTR -0.17% and go to macroview.co to get on our waiting list to subscribe!
Eurostoxx 50 : Bearish dynamic & resistance areas, better shortThe EU stocks index Eurostoxx 50 (MOY0) has made a nice rise since the Brexit (end June), but the buyers are currently facing some difficulties to go higher. In fact, the european stock market is inside a bearish dynamic since early 2015, as characterized by the downside trendline resistance (blue) and the bearish 200 days moving average.
In this case, the sellers are likely to become majoritary again due the the following reasons :
- Proximity with the downside trendline resistance
- Beginning of a retreat at 3100 points, first resistance
- This resistance area matches with the 50% retracement of the violent drop we have seen in december - february.
Both the long term dynamics and levels should prevent the buyers to go further and initiate a pull back to where markets were in september.
Here is the precise strategy :
- Open short at the current price (3080 points on Friday close)
- Stop @ 3120 pts (above the resistance for market noise)
- First target @ 3025 points (close 50% of the position, reward/risk = 1.38)
- Second target @ 2940 points (close the other 50% of the position, reward/risk = 3.5)
Short If Closes Below Trendline.If Closes below trend line, short entry to major trend line, then see if it can consolidate above it or break it .
Also Divergence.
